THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. MONDAY, DECEMBER 10, 1923. THE BRITISH ELECTIONS.

New Zealand Herald, Volume LX, Issue 18578, 10 December 1923, Page 8

THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. MONDAY, DECEMBER 10, 1923. THE BRITISH ELECTIONS.

The immediate outcome of the British elections, news of which is now almost complete, can be told in a very few words. The decision in thirteen out of the 615 seats in the House is not yet known. Mr. Baldwins Government has suffered .a severe defeat, although retaining the leading position; the Conservative majority of 77 over all others has been turned into a minority of i 84. Labour remains the second party in numerical strength, having increased by 44. The Liberal increase is 30. None of the parties now has a majority of the House. Their standing, judged numerically, follows the order of the last Parliament. Omitting the outstanding returns, the Conservatives hold 259 seats, as against 346 prior to the election; the Labour Opposition 187, as against 143; and the Liberals 148, as against 118. Independent members number eight in each case. Mr. Baldwin's losses include six Ministers. The issue upon which he appealed to the country has been decided against him ; the mandate he sought for, a measure of protection in order to carry out a scheme of Imperial preference, has been denied him. The blow is heavy. Labour emerges from the struggle with gains exceeding anticipations, its accessions being mostly won by minority votes in three-cornered contests. Its status as, the Opposition party is reinforced; failing coalition of some sort between the other two parties, it has the next claim on the Treasury benches. The Liberals do not make as good a showing as Labour. While they have made an advance on their own strength prior to the election, their minority to Labour has increased from 25 to 39; and in the actual contest they have suffered heavy losses to Labour. Mr. Lloyd George has; achieved something in the nature of a personal triumph in his tremendously energetic campaign, but the members of his old National Liberal party have gone down practically to a man, despite their most strenuous efforts. Looking to the electorate as a whole, the most striking feature is the great increase in the total Labour vote — 370,000, which is nearly three times the increase in the Liberal vote— 130,000. Although suffering the loss of so many seats, the Conservatives have increased their vote by 58,000. All things considered, whatever the disappointment of the Government, the Liberal failure to make its boast good is an equally impressive fact.

The ultimate outcome of the contest cannot be measured in any numerical way, and is consequently less eaay to trace. The effect upon Imperial preferenceindeed, upon other items of Imperial policy— likely to be prejudicial. To say that " while home protection has been hopelessly beaten, the policy of Empire has suffered no defeat at all," as the Daily Express puts the position,' is to misread the facts. That the programme of Imperial unity and- development should get no setback through the popular rejection of Mr. Baldwin's proposal is to be devoutly wished. But it was under pressure from the Dominions, and in keeping with their expressed desire for a closer and more favourable fiscal union with Britain, that Mr. Baldwin's policy was enunciated and the risk of the election run. A desire to protect the Home markets was the more obvious aim, but none the less real was the wish to develop trade with the Empire's overseas territories. The reaction of the election upon Imperial policy may be serious; it is, at all events, calculated to diminish the hope of an increase in Britain's power to purchase the Dominions' products. As to the effect of the result upon the major fiscal question, Mr. Asquith is indulging in violent hyperbole when he says that by this result protection is dead and buried. The tendency of recent years toward a protective policy is not likely to be so easily killed. However the Dominions' hope of increased trade with Britain may have been checked, there will still be pressure from them for preferential treatment, and this will bring the question of Britain's fiscal policy to the fore again before long. Mr. Asquith's extrava—possibly an echo of electioneering statements rather than a calmly considered judgment of election events — that all votes cast against the Government were for Free Trade. That cannot be safely assumed, considering the interplay of many motives in the struggle. There were Free Trade votes cast for some ' Government candidates —for there were Conservative Free Traders standing. There were also, of course, some Liberals not averse to preference. But that does not alter the position: it rather reveals the risk of hasty generalisation from the polls' results. It is a consideration of Labour's position, however, that shows how lacking in sober truth is Mr. Asquith's declaration. Labour . has never accepted the laissez-faire views of the Manchester School, and one of the stoutest arguments for fiscal regulation has been supplied by Labour's demand for enhanced consideration in the matter of wages and improved conditions of work. This demand has directly produced a reason for safeguarding industries from unrestricted foreign competition.

The elections' result is likely to have a somewhat untoward foreign reaction. There is no great confidence abroad in either Liberal or Labour administration. To take a specific case, France has had little [love for Mr. Lloyd George in recent years, and his return to influential I leadership, even as one of a number J °* ■ British politicians in responsible [control of afEaiss, & iifcejy fee .arouse

suspicion and distrust. Through a difficult situation the Conservative Government has s moved! with cautious wisdom. The entente between Britain and France has been maintained. Would it have been :-. preserved had Mr. Lloyd George been in a responsible position That is, to say the least, very doubtful There is required, for the sake of Europe and the rest of the civilised world, a Government in Britain capable of attracting the trust of other peoples. . This the Conservative Government has done, even in very trying situations. The emergence of possibilities of a change of Government, even the reduction of the Conservatives' support in the country, is bound to test foreign relations very considerably. Prophecy is impossible ; but the likelihood of trouble is not merely a bogey, judging from statements in the Continental press and from foreign statesmen in high places. 1