THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 1923. REVERSE OF THE PICTURE.

New Zealand Herald, Volume LX, Issue 18537, 23 October 1923, Page 6

THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 1923. REVERSE OF THE PICTURE.

Britain's industrial outlook is admittedly gloomy. The country lives on oxport trade to. a greater degree than any other in the civilised world. Producing but a small proportion of the food needed by her population Britain must sell goods beyond her own shores or lack the necessities of life. This situation is not of recent development. It is old enough to have inspired the Napoleonic jibe, " a nation of shopkeepers." With the-corning of Free Trade, in. the middle of last century, with" the sweeping away of Navigation Acts, and other measures,.designed to keep Empire Trade in Empire channels, came the complete acceptance of the theory that the whole world must' be Britain's market for both buying and selling. This involved the elimination of all artificial restrictions preventing trade from going freely whithersoever it seemed likeliest to be carried on with profit. Now that the growth of feeling in favour of concentration on Empire tirade and development makes it formidabls, there is still to be found considerable support for the older theory. Within the past few weeks there; have : been reiterated declarations that the industrial horizon will brighten only when foreign, / particularly European, markets recover, and that the hope of substituting Empire markets is wholly illusory. Virtually overything that could be said has been said in favour .:• of organised concentration on Empire development, yet a substantial body of opinion remains unconvinced. There has been much exposition of the possibilities within the ambit of the Empire, for, production, for the settlement of Britain's surplus population, and for the consequent augmentation of her markets. '■<■ The reverse of the picture I needs consideration also, the reasonable outlook , of; the /debilitated pre-war markets in which Britain once bought and sold so briskly. /

In discussing policy with France, British spokesmen recently; claimed that the depression of British trade, with consequent unemployment, was reasonably comparable to devastation on the actual battle-field. The logic of the claim was that its prime cause, deprivation ■■ of accustomed markets, sprang directly from the war. France complains that the failure to obtain ! reparations prevents her from v repairing the material ravages of war. On Britain's side it can bo asserted, with equal confidence that failure to stabilise the European situation acts against the; repair of her devastation. If no. new sources of supply and demand are developed, if the recovery of the old world is indeed essential to Britain, the outlook is not bright, on a survey of current events. France i and • Germany are still at odds. The condition of stalemate persists, and the changes in Germany during the past few weeks give ; little encouragement to , the hopes of a speedy tranquilisation. It is not that Britain is especially dependent on trading with; Germany herself. The evil of the; impasse is the ' disturbing effect :it produces on the whole of Europe.. So; far then as Britain's return to ..prosperity depends upon; the successful issue of the Franco-German situation, *it offers-the prospect of a long period of passive waiting before the tide turns. The renewal of trade -relations with Russia is another factor to be considered. . Becent investigators who have returned from that country speak of a brighter outlook, of the gradual recovery, of affairs from the apparently hopeless abyss into which they had sunk. Yet the prospect of Russia entering into definite calculations as "a factor in international trade is dominated by the question of credit. Financial experts insist that Russian credit abroad must always be clouded by the Soviet's policy of debt-repudia-tion. There is no sign: of recantation, so optimism receives another check. Time again may remove the impasse, but how shall Britain live while waiting? • •'";.-.-

Central Europe used once to be a fruitful market for British manufactures. For satisfactory trade, attended by no more than the ■legitiiuate risks of operation, political stability is essential. Where can it be found in Central Europe to-day? This does not imply that anarchy rules supremo, but the organisation broken down by -the war and its aftermath has not yet been re-estab-lished. Exchanges are worse than dopressed, they are constantly fluctuating. Buying and selling, in consequence, is ■ attended with ; risks which are prejudicial to sound business,. New national borders have complicated '■' transactions, by * the , creation of. new currencies, and the I need for new clearing-house arrangements. There is no special reason to hope that the Near East will develop speedily into a hopeful commercial field. It ; is anaemic after an extended period of war and unrest, -during which whole populations have been /uprooted and transported, to -the; detriment of their t£ U^ 6 " and ' c °nsuming capacijties. The recovery of all these mar-

kets ; has been promised from day to day, : but:.still British trade languishes, and the army of unemployed grows ; greater. Nothing is ore certain jj; than :•;. that t years will elapse before aW rectification is assured in many of these countries. The, extent to which: Britain can contribute! to a recovery is strictly limited, for interference] in the internal affairs of foreign nations is. neither possible nor desirable. r : It is evident that a policy of passive waiting • 'alone '';•■;;■. remains 'iff it is in these directions only that hope lies. The other argument is , that the markets of the Empire can ; be, developed to replace what has been lost, and that Britain's aid in the task will be welcomed, that her efforts will be met half way. The sceptics still express their doubts, and while the case for and against the policy, is debated, trade remains depressed. Yet the feeling for cooperation in Empire development seems gaming strength, * helped on by the unanswerable logic of circumstances.. .