THE RUHR OCCUPATION.

New Zealand Herald, Volume LX, Issue 18317, 6 February 1923, Page 9

THE RUHR OCCUPATION.

EFFECT UPON; GERMANY.

RISK OF INTERNAL CRISIS.

OPPORTUNITY FOR JUNKERS.

(TJie following article has been written by a resident of New Zealand who, prior to the war, spent a number of years in Germany, and, after the armistice, was again in Europe for two years, a part of which he spent in the German, capital. For a. time he held a position with a German . company which acted as trustee for the German Government and the Allied Reparation Commission in the disposal of, and the accounting for, the German army staff under the terms of the Peace Treaty. On account of his knowledge of the different languages he was engaged as interpreter and liaison officer between the. corresponding departments of the Reparation Commission and this trust company. He is thus able to speak with authority on the post-war sentiment and. outlook in Germany). : * ■ Apart from the economic consequences, the French occupation and separation of the Ruhr region might have far-reaching consequences upon the inner political conditions in Germany. The danger ■of a communistic rising with the possible sequel of the introduction of Bolshevism in Germany has already been pointed out. But there is another danger lurking beyond this ' namely, the re-establishment of the. old militaristic "Junker Government. ;.' ■*_'"■ « "■ Careful investigators agree that both the bulk of the population and the Republican Government are essentially peaceful after the severe lesson received through the war The old, relentless ' militaristic spirit was, after the revolution, strictly limited to the. East Elbian aristocracy (the Junkers the professional army officers, some of the higher officials in the different Government departments, and a number of the large industrials. These are irreconcilable enemies of the republic, but their number has never been estimated as more than 10 per cent, of the population. Underground Activities. The bulk of the population is strictly republican, and, supported by them, the republic weathered all attempts at its overthrow from the , extremists _of the right and left. But the militarists are waiting for their . opportunity, and. in the meantime, are working underground trying to enlarge the circle of their followers by propaganda in their press, which is well financed by the all-powerful Stinnes, and trying to diminish the ranks of their opponents by organising wholesale murder of the republican leaders, as revealed in the proceedings against Herr Rathenau's murderers. Thanks to the French policy of oppression in the reparation question and *of humiliation in the administration of the occupied territory, they have gained a certain hearing, as some people, in Germany believe that a strong militaristic Government might succeed more effectually in opposing the French . demand's than the present obliging Republican leaders. The reactionaries are waiting for a great ' internal crisis in Germany to make again a bid for supremacy, and this crisis, they trust, will be brought about through a communistic revolution. ■,'lt.has even been alleged by the Labour Party that the occasional communistic risings and strikes were secretly fostered by the militaristic party, who hoped to gain by the ensuing turmoil or through the repressive actions of the French. -We can be sure that during the present crisis they are using all their subterranean influences to rouse th» feeling of the German people to the highest pitch and to precipitate disorder.

Bolshevism as a Means. If, through the separation of the Ruhr region and through, the ensuing lack of coal, industrial activity in Germany is brought to a standstill and unemployment takes place, things are bound to develop rapidly. . So far, every ; German labourer has been' employed on account o~f: the artificial and illusory prosperity following the depreciation of the mark. Though his wages are not high when expressed in pounds or dollars, they enable him to live even if on a decidedly lower plane than the same class of Worker in England or America. If this living wag* is taken from him he will be much more inclined to lend » willing ear to the Bolshevik agitators on the extreme left and those on the right, and disregard the voice of reason, which, so far. has held the upper hand. The first open mov» against order will probably not com* from the militarists, but they will prefer to leave the lead to the Bosheviks of th*> left and try to appear in the part of waviour when the people after a short or long taste of communistic government on the ' Russ'an model are prepared to accept any authority, however . distasteful it would have been before, provided that order and safety are restored. As to the personality of th,e figure-head of such a Government (Ludendorff ; and his circle are. the actual heads), it is .most unlikely that the late Kaiser would have any chance; Through his flight to Holland and , through h's sjifisuquent actions (his lawsuit against Prussia for the ; surrender of large State properties vihich he clamed as private family property of the Hohenzollerns, his second marriage, the publicaton of his memoirs, etc.), he has lost all respect Germany. The Crown Prince, too, .has lost; njost of hi old popularity, but_ his eldest son is often ment oned as* prospective« head of the new German monarchy. He; is at present in his early teens and, regent . would have to take his place till he reached his majority. This would suit the' militarists, who could put -one of their military *reniuse ß in power and mould things their own way.

■; Constitutional Monarchy. Though only comparatively ' few Germans' were and still are wishing a return to' power of the old militaristic caote, large' circles, specially of the upper and lower middle classes, in their hearts favour the replacing of the presidential head of the country by a strictly constitutional monarch; on : the '.' British model. They do hot wish to see the democratic principles of the Republic abolished, but they consider the transition from what was practically' an autocracy to the present: state far too sudden for the mentality of th<* German people, -.- and they think that aconstitutional monarch ■ would,; form £a; stable centre in the continual fluctuations of Germain party .politics. They do not wish to bring about this change by" force, but. so far, they have; thought that this would be a natural development in the course of a number, of years, as the average German cannot bring himself to look upon Herr Eb'ert, the President, as a suitable impersonation of .the dignity of the State, but can see in him only the late bootmaker or whatever craft he pursued prior to his present exalted position. ) Such re-establishment of a constitutional monarchy in a peaceful, way need not necessarily mean a considerable, increase in the influence of the old militarists, as all parties, with the exception, - perhaps, of the 10 per cent, of "die-hards," would jealously guard their rights under the prei sent constitution. ,But. it is quite a different proposition if the old militaristic gang manages the forcible establishment of a monarchy, taking advent of internal and perhaps external fighting and general turmoil. We may be sure that, in such a, case, their old doctrine of the mailed fist would be securely re-enthroned and this must, in the eyes of ' all truly liberal and democratic people, undoubtedly be considered one of the most unpleasant and dangerous consequences to which the present action ; of : the French Government might' ultimately lea<d' ; ' Let us hope that the minds of- both parties, : France and Germany, ! will yet overcome . their thoughts of | hatred and will come to an understanding on a reasonable basis, replacing strife by co-opera-tion-—the omly hope for recovery from the effects of the war for themselves and the rest of Europe. . -