THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. TUESDAY, APRIL 12, 1921. BRITISH TRADE RETURNS.

New Zealand Herald, Volume LVIII, Issue 17753, 12 April 1921, Page 4

THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. TUESDAY, APRIL 12, 1921. BRITISH TRADE RETURNS.

I The British trade returns for March , show that the tendency still is for an all-round contraction of business. There was no rea-sonable ground for anticipating any other movement i It is too early yet for the seasonal revival of trade which may be ex- ! pected in the spring to have manifested itself, and the coal strike will retard the gradual improvement 1 which will ultimately mark the con- ! valescence of the world's marketsDeclining values are a factor which must now be taken into account in 1 any comparative figures, but it is obvious they do not wholly explain the reduction in the trade figures during the first three months of t.hiq ! year :— ■

Reducing the comparison to its most vital analysis it shows that the adverse balance of trade fluctuated from £14,494,970 in January to £20,827,423 in February, and £18,124,924 in March. The balance for the quarter was £53,447,317. It is difficult to estimate what the j " invisible exports" this year will I be. For 192-0 they were calculated ;! at £640,000,000, ®nd, even allowing for a substantial decline this year, chiefly on account of the decreased earning power of shipping, it would appear that the nation is at least balancing its trading accounts even during a bad winter, partly by i economy in consumption and partly | by a reduction in the importation of 1 raw materials. This confirms the experience of last year, when the ! nominal adverse balance was 1 £378,000,000, against £662,000,000 in 1 1919, and was, therefore, consider- . ably below the invisible exports. | It is well to remember that there ! are two measures of trade, value and volume; and that during a ( period of general inflation they may point to very different conclusions. ; Measured by value last year's trade j was easily a record, reaching an | aggregate of £3,494,717,000, an increase of £905,176,000 over 1919. j The imports were valued at | £1,936,742,000, an increase of 19.1 j cent., oompared with the preceding year, the exports at ' £1,335,569,000, an increase of 67.4 1 per cent-, and re-exports at ' £222,406,000, an increase of 35 per : cent. The total value of exports ; and re-exports rose by 61.7 per cent., I against an increase of 19.1 per cent. lin imports. It is notable also that , the expansion of exports was due ohiefly to articles wholly or mainly 1 manufactured, which contributed no less than 89.2 per cent, of the 1 increase. Reverting to the other I measure of trade the advance was far lesn striking. By volume the 1 exports last year were 10,646,000 ! tons, compared with 7,500,000 tons in 1919 and 15,000,000 tons in 1913. Similarly the clearances in shipping during 1920 were only C 4 per cent, of the total for 1913. This proves clearly enough that, ]920 was a year of under-production and that shipping, in spite of the great increase in tonnage, is far from having I attained its pre-war efficiency- The i measure of volume is a more reliable one at the present time than that of value, and it should be kept . constantly in mind by farmers and ; others engaged in production in ■ New Zealand. An analysis made by the Herald some months ago , suggested that by this test the rate I Oi expansion of the primary industries had been slowed down during i the war period. The same uncom- | fortable phenomenon has been re- | marked in Australia by the statis- ! tical officer of the New South Wales | Board of Trade, who, on the basis | of 1911 values, estimated the averj age annual production of the State ' for the five years 1909-13 at £66,000,000, and for the five years 1915-19 at £58,000.000. For the whole Commonwealth the Federal compiler of statistics has demonstrated a decline in rural production during the war period. Repatriation has probably retrieved the position in both New Zealand and Australia, but it would be reassuring to have official evidence of this. The. Statistician and his staff j,engage in many less profitable

inquiries, and should be asked to

present an annual census of production as well as of exports. In normal times the distinction is not material, but during the war period, when large accumulations of pro- \ j duce were in store, it was vital, and - ■ in view of the holding of wool it is j still a factor that should be taken j into consideration. .i The central problem of industry at i the present time, whether in New | Zealand or the United Kingdom, is ! to increase and cheapen production. j The British manufacturer is faced with impoverished customers who would buy but cannot. Even the recovery in the value of the pound, not in gold but in other paper currencies, although it is due to Britain having ceased to water down her currency and is a sign of economic strength, i 8 not without its embarrassments. In the words of Lord Weir " no policy of protective legislation, no manipulation of currency or credit can permanently help the situation unless accompanied, if not preceded, by a rigid and ruthless policy of elimination of inefficiency and waste in the condi» tions controlling the costs of produc- • tion." Unfortunately the British i workman has not yet accepted the j theory that an increase in produc- ! tion will most rapidly reduce prices. I A recent investigation of the engij neering trade showed that the re- ! duction of hours had been accom- ! panied by a reduction in the hourly output, with the consequence that production showed a depression varying in different works from 10 to 50 per cent. Until this policy of deliberate restriction of output is abandoned the future of British industry will remain uncertainThere are many favourable factors in the situation, the appreciation of the pound, the remarkable Budget surplus, and the reduction in the excess of imports over exports. Only steady industry is now required to restore national pros-' perity, and if workmen would resolve to give a maximum output the readjustment of wages would prove much less complex than it is now likely to be.

Lmporta. Exports. Be-erports. Jan.'- .. £ 117.208,183 £92,756,094 £9,955019 > Feb. . . 97.053,457 68,221,731 8,004^03 Alar. . . 93,822,090 66,808,961 8,888,205