THE New Zealand Herald. AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. TUESDAY. MAY 14, 1918. THE POSITION OF AUSTRIA.

New Zealand Herald, Volume LV, Issue 16849, 14 May 1918, Page 4

THE New Zealand Herald. AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. TUESDAY. MAY 14, 1918. THE POSITION OF AUSTRIA.

The ramshackle Austro-Hungarian Empire has weathered so many storms that it is wise to discount very heavily the constant rumours of unrest and distress so far as their probable effect on the course of the war is concerned. Even the mutiny in the fleet and the revolutionary risings which were lately reported may crack the surface, but leave undisturbed the foundations of the Empire. There is, nevertheless, every reason to suppose that Austria is steadily weakening. The experience of Russia has shown that an intolerable strain may produce dramatic results when least expected. The collapse of Russia was not caused by the events of last year. It had its beginnings in a fundamentally unsound national structure —for which Austria offers a parallel—aDd the causes which led to its culmination were complete in 1915, when the Russian Army was defeated again and again, driven from one line to another, and was ultimately saved only by the vast distances of Russia. Even the revival of the army group under Brussiloff in 1916 and the meteoric j campaign of 1917 failed to save ! Russia. The cumulative effect of | heavy losses in the field and internal crises was too great to be withstood and Russia fell. Austria is affected by the same ailments, war exhaustion and internal dissensions. The Austrian Army has suffered severely at the hands of both Russia and Italy. In the early months of the war it was practically wrecked in Galicia, and only German intervention saved it from collapse. Before and after the fall o? Gorz it received many hard blows from the Italians, and although German generalship, organisation, and reinforcement mado an invasion of Italy possible, it is not to be supposed that Austrian morale has not been shaken by previous disasters.

While the Austrian Army is held j together by Prussian discipline, the j temper of the civilian population is I fast becoming dangerous. The sub- | ject nationalities are using the external difficulties of Austria <is an opportunity to advance their claims, and their demands are increasing every day. They now stand practically for complete independence, and, if they have so far used consti- I ttitional methods, it is because they . realise that they have numbers on j their side and once they secure an equal franchise they can control the [ Parliaments of both Austria and Hungary. According to 1910 statistics the population of the Dual Monarchy consists of the following eight distinct racial groups : - Germans I.', 000,000 Magyars 10.000,000 Czechoslovaks ... ... 8.500,000 South Slavs 5.000.000 l'Q_'e3 5,000.000 Liltle Russians (Ukrainians) 4,000,000 Roumanians 3,250.000 Italians ... 800. 000 The Germans and Magyars, numbering 22.000,000, are (he ruling races ; one in Austria, the other in Hungary, and they alone are proGerman. The other groups, totalling 26,550,000, are all subject races and may all be described as antiGerman. It is obvious that the democratisation of Austria-Hungary would throw power into the hands of the anti-German races. So far a;i unequal franchise and jealousies between the groups have prevented them being formidable. That is I changing now. The most conservative of Austrian statesmen are talk-

ing of franchise reforms, and for the first time the subject nationalities are working harmoniously together in Parliament. The immediate cause of this was the Ukraine peace treaty. Both Austrian and German Poles were deeply moved by the alienation of Polish territory with a Polish population in favour of the new State of Ukraine. While the German Poles could do no more than express displeasure their Aus- ; trian compatriots found a very effective way of embarrassing the Government. They formed a Parliamentary alliance with Czechs and Slavs, who were nursing grievances of their own, and the result was a bloc 215 strong — 94 Czechs, 77 Poles, 31 Southern Slavs, and 13 Italian and non-party members. Against this the Government could command only 212 certain votes, and the balance was therefore held by Social Democrats, who turned against the Government and produced a deadlock which has defied solution. The present Austrian Premier, Dr. Seidler, is prepared to go far to conciliate the national groups. He has defined his policy as " self-government to every nationality within the political unity of the State," but the demand is i now for complete independence. I The Czechs in particular are agitat- j ing for the creation of an autono- '■ mous State to include practically ! the whole of Bohemia. Similarly : in Hungary, although Dr. Wekerle, the Premier, has declared in favour of franchise reform, he refuses to carry out the whole programme, which would take political power

out of the hands of the Magyars. He also attempts to exclude the Slav masses by insisting on making knowledge of the Hungarian language an electoral qualification. Failing to solve the Parliamentary deadlock the Austrian Government has decided to ignore it, and has dismissed the Reichrath. This typically Prussian proceeding appears under the circumstances to be highly dangerous. There are advocates of open revolt who will not fail to make the most of the breakdown of the constitutional agitation. Already there have been mutterings of storm. The navy is suffering from inglorious inaction, and there have been at least two mutinies during the war. The army is held in better control, but among civilians a peace and anti-German propaganda proceeds openly. All these are factors of weakness which may at any time paralyse Austria as a military power. They will especially tend to do so when Germany's difficulties thicken around her, giving her little leisure to inquire into the affairs of her weaker neighbour. Although Austria stands or falls with Germany it is by no means certain that she will go as far as her ally. It is more probable that when she finds military defeat inevitable she will prefer to escape the final sufferings of a hopeless struggle by throwing herself on the mercy, of the Entente Powers.