THE SHIPPING OUTLOOK.

New Zealand Herald, Volume LV, Issue 16847, 11 May 1918, Page 6

THE SHIPPING OUTLOOK.

To a distinguished American naval officer has fallen the privilege of giving the most reassuring statement on the shipping position that has yet been made. Admiral Sims, who went to European waters with the first flotilla of American destroyers to go on active service, has announced that next week the curves representing shipping losses and construction will meet. If this is a statement of official expectation —and it may be presumed that an officer of Admiral Sims's rank would make no rash prophecyit is equivalent to saying that the submarine campaign has at last been definitely defeated. The figures of losses and construction during the first quarter of this year which were published yesterday show that the margin of losses over launchings had become small. They give Admiral Sims s statement every appearance of probability, although they could not indicate that the hour of triumph at sea was so close at hand. If the world's shipbuilding is now practically level with losses it will probably be found to be due to American construction, which is increasing rapidly. There is still plenty of work, for the shipyards. British tonnage alone has decreased by over three million, or about 18 per cent., during the war, and every ship that can be launched will find a useful place in the stream of transports which is now carrying the American Army to France. But the overtaking of losses marks the utter failure of the submarine weapon to achieve the purpose assigned to it. From now on, the shipping resources of the allies will increase after shrinking slowly but stekdily for the whole war period. This assures that the American army will be carried to France and maintained for whatever time is necessary. It assures victory on land as well as at sea. Sir John Jellicoe recently prophesied that the submarine menace would be mastered by August. There is now reason to hope that even this cheering forecast erred on the side of caution. It is certain that submarine attacks are being made mord difficult and more dangerous for the enemy. A minefield now blocks the northern outlet of the North Sea, and Zeebrugge Harbour is reported to be closed by the obstruction sunk during the recent raid.- If this is so, the submarines must use bases in Germany which are much farther from their hunting grounds. They will consequently operate at greater risk and with less effectiveness. In discussing a few months ago the threat of a German offensive on the western front the Herald expressed the opinion that such an offensive would prove that submarine warfare had failed and that Germany realised it had failed. This view arrears to have been wellfounded. The German Army is attempting to win the victory which could not be won by the submarines.