THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 17, 1917. THE COMING CAMPAIGNS.

New Zealand Herald, Volume LIV, Issue 16467, 17 February 1917, Page 6

THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 17, 1917. THE COMING CAMPAIGNS.

There is a very general belief that the decision of the war will take place on the west front. 1 The reason ? underlying this anticipation is not far to seek. The battle in the west is being fought out by enormous masses of highly-equipped men operating over comparatively small areas, and there is little opportunity for German recovery should the front be broken at several strategic points. It is generally agreed that the time has gone by when the German commanders might have withdrawn advantageously to a shorter line, as is said to have been advised by Falkenhayn. Whatever happens in any sector, they can now only withdraw under heavy pressure. They must stand where they are if they would avoid the losses inevitable in any enforced retreat. In 1915 the Russians manoeuvring over - great expanses were able to 'keep their armies unbroken during three desperate months of fighting retreat, but even under such conditions the Russian losses wore so great that the German General Staff is said to have assumed that our eastern ally would take a full year to recuperate. Much more serious are the difficulties which the Germans will have to face when their front begins to give way under the blows of British, French, and Belgians. Had the enemy ample reserves, any weakening sector would be immediately strengthened, but he has no sufficient reserves. The fears of the German Government are evinced in its attempt to bring about an inconclusive peace. The gloomy forebodings of the German people show them "hordes" breaking through from the west to the plains and valleys of Germany. The war may well be decided on the west front, but the campaigns on the other fronts are none the less vital to the issue. The west front could be held by Germany indefinitely if she could place there sufficient military strength, and' she might do so were concentration not rendered impossible by the necessity imposed on the Central Powers by other attacks in force. The Russians give her no rest, in spite of the obvious reduction in their energies by .German intrigue and domestic faction. Some slight reverses appear to have befallen our eastern ally both in the Riga sector and in the Bukovina> and we may measure the effort this has required from our enemies by the strength which Russia has displayed at these points. The east front has proved the grave of Austrian hopes, and it has drained Germany of a strength she sorely need.} in the 1 western field. This drain will continue. Its deadly effect has not yet been glaringly noticeable, for by one device or another the Ger- <

man military authorities have been able to make everywhere a formidable display of strength. It is when all German reserves are exhausted, and every man is needed by Germany to prevent the west front from breaking in half-a-dozen places, that we shall see the weight of the Russian pressure turn the scales of battle. Nor is it in the east alone that the Central Powers are being hard pressed. The Italians are occupying tho finest Austrian divisions. The advance of the Allied forces from Macedonia must be resisted. The Roumanian Army is being reorganised, and will again take the field. No help is forthcoming from Turkey, and Bulgaria is occupied with its own difficulties. Germany can expect no help on the west front, and must keep many divisions in the east, whatever he? needs in the west. ! One of the many signs of coming collapse in the German military organisation is. its constant change of plan and uncertainty of policy. Its attempt to terrorise the world's shipping by " unrestricted submarining" was evidently hastily determined upon, for it followed on the heels of Mr. Gerard's remarkable declaration of genial relations between America and Germany. Only a fortnight has elapsed since this form of " frightfulness" was to begin, and already it has proved ineffectual. Since the year began we had the German concentration on the Dutch frontier and now it is announced that the threatening army has vanished. During the same recent period Switzerland has been threatened, but Swiss mobilisation appears to have cooled German truculence. Probably the Germans will automatically continue the traditional Prussian strategy of attack, but if there is one thing more certain than another, it is that the German General Staff is bewildered and doubtful what to do next. It is one thing to crash across a trusting and unprepared Belgium into a surprised and mobilising France, and quite another thing to begin a last desperate attack with inadequate reserves upon nations armed to tho teeth and deployed on the battle grounds. It has been suggested that the German High Sea Fleet may attempt to temporarily hold the Channel while an invading army is thrown into England. Germany may be considering this and a hundred other desperate schemes, for she is not strong enough to hope for victory in the coming campaigns, while she is still far too strong to recognise the inevitable and accept utter defeat.