THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS SATURDAY, AUGUST 23. 1915. THE DANUBIAN FRONT.

New Zealand Herald, Volume LII, Issue 16008, 28 August 1915, Page 6

THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS SATURDAY, AUGUST 23. 1915. THE DANUBIAN FRONT.

Since the. amazing defeat of the Austrians by the Servians last year, a singular state of quiescence has j existed on the Danubian front. The! Servian seat- of government has remained at Xish, a hnndred miles from the threatened frontier, but Belgrade has stood defiantly within sight of Austrian Semlin, while Serviansnot Austrians —have crossed the great river on occasional raid. As the reward of the complete victory which they tore by sheer courage from the very jaws of defeat, the Servians have had invaluable ! months in which to nurse their wounded, repair their losses, plant and gather their harvest, and prepare themselves against the coming of another furious storm of invasion. Such another storm is apparently about to break upon them, for all Balkan advices agree that a crisis is gathering in the great peninsula, and that every Balkan state may soon be driven to declare whether it is for the Kaiser or against him. The RoumanianAustrian frontier is practically closed, and behind this screen of secrecy masses of troops are confidently thought to be hurrying southward from Galicia. Were Austria still independent in its actions, the purpose of this military movement might be defensive rather than offensive, but Germany is now in unmistakable military control of her vassal-ally, and it was never the German way to stand on the defensive while the offensive is possiblei Incidentally, it may he pointed out that no stronger proof could be given of the collapse of Germany's plans in the west than the fact that for ten months she has been unable to advance at any point, and that she has abandoned for the time being any serious forward movement against French. British, and Belgians.

After her unsuccessful attempt to crush Servia at one blow Austria ignored the existence of the gallant little kingdom, being evidently advised by Berlin to attend meanwhile to more powerful enemies, and to trust to intrigue to set the Balkan states quarrelling with one another. Obviously the future of the Balkans depends upon the outcome, of the major struggles, and Servia would he at the mercy of her enemy if the Russian sword were broken and the (treat Alliance beaten down. Tieecnt developments, however, are making it imperative, that Germany shall nn to the aid of the, Turks unless lh<'«e indomitable fighters arc to be h it in make a. separate peace as the only alternative to their expulsion from Europe. The opening of the 1 Dardanelles, the capture of Constantinople, the tinal destruction of Turkish rule in Europe, would stir the Balkans to action and bring them into line against AustroGerman interference. Even the hope and expectation «.f this final deliverance has excited the Balkan peoples to such* a degree that (Jerman intrigue and bribery has been barely able to prevent the intervention of Greece and Rotunania on the side of the Allies, while ROll- - has given an unqualified refusal to the German demand that she should permit to pass the arms and munitions essential to the con- | tinned resistance of Turkey at Gallipoli. Here we have a changed situation. Germany must either abandon Turkey or force a way through the intervening Balkan states ; she

must cither suffer another contraction of the iron wall that is closing round her or must commence another campaign on the Danubian front for the purpose of keeping the Turk in the fighting-line and of retaining the possibility of Asiatic and African adventure.

Bulgaria does not touch Austria, which can only reach that doubtful state by crossing the. Danube into Servid! and forcing her way along roads and railways which wend southwards lor over a hundred miles before they link with the Bulgarian route to Turkey. Roumania does not touch Turkey, but lies between Bulgaria and Austria, nor does Scrvia touch Turkey, being separated from that vassal of the Kaiser by Bulgarian territory. If Servia were crushed an Austro-German army would still have to obtain passage through Bulgaria to reach the Dardanelles, while if Bulgaria joined in the defence of Servia the Bulgar country could only be reached through Roumania or by mountainous defiles until the invaders were, near the ./Egean Sea. A knowledge of their advantageous position has deeply affected the subtle policy of the Bulgarians, who quite realise that they hold the keys of the situation and that it is worth every body's while to conciliate rather than t6 estrange them. The Gerj mans, however, are not counting cost in the pursuance of military aims considered in Berlin to give them hope of victory. Any great movement- of Austro-German troops southward suggests that they have approached the limits of their possible attainments in Russia and that they hope to break through to Turkey before the winter adds to the difficulties of Balkan campaigning. It was little thought in this Dominion when the war-clouds first gathered that the Servians would stand between our New Zealanders fighting at the Dardanelles and a great German army pressing down to the aid of the Turk. Yet this, in a few days, may be the situation on the Danubian front.