THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS SATURDAY, MAY 8. 1915. THE EUROPEAN NEUTRALS.

New Zealand Herald, Volume LII, Issue 15912, 8 May 1915, Page 6

THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS SATURDAY, MAY 8. 1915. THE EUROPEAN NEUTRALS.

The anxiety of. Germany to impress European neutrals h with _ the belief that she is still so powerful > that the Allies will be compelled to accept peace on German ' terms may bo judged by the,strength of the new forces which ; intervention would range against ■ her. ' The countries whose participation in the war are generally anticipated are Italy, Roumania and Greece, each of them being actually on a war footing and able to take' the field without any serious delay. The forces they would throw into the scales on the side of the Allies may be approximately set down as follows :— Italy 1,000,000 Roumania 300,000 Greece 200,000

Here we have potential armies, totalling one and a-half millions, which can all be marshalled on the southern flanks of the Austrian empire, for Servia offers an open road for the moving of Greek reinforcements to the Danubian frontier. Italy can only be attacked on a comparatively narrow section of her north-eastern border; Greece can only be attacked through Servia or by the Turks—whose hands are fully occupied elsewhere; Roumania is almost in touch with the Russian armies and could advance through the kindred territory of Austrian i Transylvania. As matters stand a large Austro-German army is occupied in watching the Italian frontier and another Austrian army, estimated at 80,000, has had to be posted on the Roumanian border. It is well within the mark to say that aquarter of a million Austrians and Germans are actually engaged in precautionary measures against these doubtful neutrals and that the strain upon Servia has been greatly relieved, by the possibility of complications, since the Austrian defeat in that courageous state. If Italy declared war the Austro-German forces

now pre-occupied by her dangerous temper would 'have', to be doubled or trebled. If Roumania and Greece entered the field, a defensive' campaign on the Danube would -add'- to the accumulating . difficulties of Vienna and. Berlin. It is not strange that the German should resort to every trick in his extensive category to prevent such a catastrophe.

But it is not only of Italy, Roumania and Greece that Germany is fearful. Bulgaria has been visibly perturbed by the carrying of the Allied military operations into Turkey and a. strong Turkish force, reported as 100,000 men, has been pushed to the Bulgarian frontier to prevent a raid upon Adrianople. Bulgaria cannot sit quietly by if Greece intervenes, for the success of the Allies might leave to the Greeks Thracian territory which the Bulgarians regard as their rightful inheritance. For Bulgaria to join the losing -side would be fatal to her hopes and though diplomacy may not wield much influence among her peasants it undoubtedly sways the councils and directs the decisions of her government. Bulgaria can place some 300,000 men in the field. Among other Latin neutrals stand Spain and Portugal. Portugal has already been involved in her African colonies, which German forces invaded, but has not yet been drawn into the European quarrel. Spain is displaying an increasing interest in the straggle, obviously excited by hopes of expansion in North-west Africa and by a popular revulsion against German intrigues in Madrid- If a great movement of intervention swept Southern Europe, ,it might affect Spain'and Portugal, as none know better than the Germans, whose aggressive methods and undisguised ambitions have alarmed every independent state. It is thus of supreme concern to Germany that an intervention movement should be nipped in the bud and time gained for such chances of war as the Kaiser and his councillors may think to be possible. From the German point of view tho best way of preventing intervention is to make a great parade of strength in every quarter and to saturate the populations of the despised democracies with exaggerated ideas of German prowess and resources. From the Allied point of view the best way of defeating German plans is to present a steady and undaunted front to every German effort and thus to convince friendly neutrals that the war can have only one conclusion.

• There remain five other European neutrals—Switzerland, Holland, Denmark, Norway, and Sweden—all states of ordered government and stolid temperament. They are all ancient and experienced nations, distrustful of. hasty action ■; and wholly unaggressive. Only Denmark can expect to regain lost national territory by the collapse of Germany and Denmark might be overwhelmed, as Belgium, has been, if she attempted to take action. In this respect the northern neutrals differ fundamentally from the southern neutrals, who are generally inspired by nationalist enthusiasm and. passionately desire to incorporate with themselves kinsmen now under foreign yokes, old provinces lost to hated aliens, or unattached territories slowly emerging from the flood of , mediaeval invasion. We must remember that the Turk not only conquered South-eastern Europe but broke the /ancient, civilisation of «Asia- Minor, that the Moslem movement swept from' Egypt to Spain over regions once Christian and that Austria-Hungary is , composed of a medley of diverse nationalities, most of whom are . hopeful of reunion with their own divided peoples. Russia has espoused the cause of the Poles and has always been the champion of the Slav peoples of the Balkans, where her influence is deservedly great. Britain has long befriended Italy and Greece France is the protagonist of the Latin states and fights not only for her existence but for the recovery of her lost provinces,". a motive which the Mediterranean peoples understand and appreciate. Tho Allies 'have nothing to fear from the northern, neutrals, but Germany has much to fear from the southern neutrals, and strives desperately to check them by frightfulness," that vaunted discovery of Prussian " Kultur" upon which the Kaiser instinctively and naturally relies.