THE SITUATION IN POLAND.

New Zealand Herald, Volume LII, Issue 15807, 2 January 1915, Page 1 (Supplement)

THE SITUATION IN POLAND.

BY LIEUT.-COLONEL A. A. GRACE, N.Z.F.A. When, in the middle of the thirteenth century, tfie Mongols invaded Central Europe, they advanced in two great armies, one of which crossed the Carpathian Mountains and moved on Pesth (now called Buda-Pesth), while the second marched upon Cracow- and entered Silesia. To-day the Russians are seeking to do very much the same thing. They have occupied Czernowitz, in Southern Calicia ; they have been reported to have crossed the Carpathians at more than one spot, and we are told they have laid' siege to Cracow. Thus it would seem that the principles of strategy remain immutai,'*.

A glance at the map of Central Europe will show that Cracow bars the Russians,' way to both Berlin and Vienna, but with that stronghold conquered they would be free to pass on to the upper reaches of the River Oder, and with that obstacle crossed there would be no serious topographical obstacle between them and Berlin to the north-west, while to the south the centre of Austria would be laid open. My own personal opinion is that the Russian strategy points to Vienna as its immediate object, and that subsequently Berlin will receive the undivided and ruthless attention of the Muscovites. in attacking an alliance such as that of Austria and Germany, it is always good strategy to knock out the weaker member of the alliance first, and so spoil the combinatun. It was thus that Germany tirst sought to' paralyse France by the mighty onslaught, in August. If she had succeeded the war would possibly have ended by now, cr at anyrate its course would have been indubitably determined; and so with Austria prostrate and the armies of Russia, France, and Britain free to devote their full force against Germany, the end of the war could not be long undecided.

Turkey is not proving so helpful an ally as, doubtless, Germany hoped she would be. Indeed, if she becomes the means of drawing Italy into the arena on the side of Britain, France, and Russia, she will have done the maximum possible in the way of damaging Germany's cause. Austria also must have proved a bitter disappointment to her truculent ally. Evidently Austria's allotted task was to occupy in Galicia as large a Russian force as possible, and to hold the tipper reaches of the Vistula. But almost the whole of Galicia is now in Russian hands, Mid the Austrians have been driven from the Upper Vistula to Cracow ; while in the south Austria has been so signally defeated by the Servians that the people of Hungary are contemplating secession.

The renewed endeavours of the Germans to gain the aggressive in Poland may therefore be viewed with equanimity. To occupy the line of the Vistula from its source to its mouth and to capture Warsaw, is, doubtless, Germany's object, while, perhaps, the Austrians may be galvanised into sufficient energy to guard the Carpathians effecutally. But. even if this programme were successfully carried out. it could lead to nothing except a negative conclusion. Russia would still bo exceedingly active, and the menace of the allies of the west would be ever present and ever felt. In the meantime, Germany is using up her resources prodigally, and the' dissensions in the Austro-Hungarian Empire daily increase.

But the campaign in Poland has not gone altogether in the favour of Germany. At one time the Austro-German armies were acting to the east of the Upper Vistula, on a line stretching from Lublin to Lemberg. To-day they have been flung back 200 miles to the neighbourhood of Lodz and Cracow, and it is hard to see in what manner they are to advance again across the Upper Vistula, or -what they would accomplish by so doing.

In reality, what Germany is doing is to defend the line of the Oder by fighting in the plains of Poland. That is why so much fighting is taking place around Cracow, and on the Pilica River to the east of Lodz. With the Russians in Cracow the door to Vienna certainly and to Berlin probably would be open. No doubt this last advance of the Germans towards Warsaw has been and is stupendously violent, no doubt the Russians would have preferred vastly that their enemies should have retired to the line of the Oder; but until Cracow falls, Russia is hardly likely to think of making a general advance towards the line of the Upper Oder. To relieve the pressure of the German aggresive movements in Poland, General Joffre, with much beating of drums and blowing of trumpets, has proclaimed hie intention of making an advance from the west. That advance would not appear at the time of writing to have become general, but the desired effect has been produced, for we hear of large bodies of German troops, which might have been used in Poland, being concentrated at Aix-la-Chapelle. The original plan of the Entente Powers was for France to act on the defensive while Russia took the aggressive, but this arrangement was made for reasons which do not necessarily pertain to the situation today, and it is just possible that aggressive movements performed on a grand scale from east and west simultaneously may be the present intention of the Russian, French, and British generals —Germany manifestly cannot wage aggressive campaigns in the east and the west at the same time.

To-day the centre of interest is not at Rheims or Lille or Ypres; it is not at Belgrade or even at Warsawit is at Cracow. To the south of Cracow lies the great mass of the Carpathians ; to the west lie the upper waters of the Oder, which flows through the plain * which stretches through Silesia and Prussia to the Baltic Sea. To cross the river will be the object of the Russian commander-in-chief, and the best place at which to cross it will be where the -Mongols crossed it so many hundreds of years ago in the neighbourhood of Kosel and Ratibor. From that point it is less than 300 miles to Berlin and under 200 miles to Vienna. Parts of the Russian armies are within 100 miles of Ratibor. and if they can repeat the movement* of the Mongols in 1241 and threaten Buaa-Pesth by crossing the Carpathians in torce while their main army penetrates into Silesia by crossing the Coper we should see panic created in both Berlin and Vienna. But, before the Mongols were able to do that they were forced to take Cracow. To-day it is equally necessary for the Russians to seize that place. Here would seem to be the decisive point in the eastern part of the theatre of this great war. The German menacing of Warsaw is of no importance, except to the people of Warsaw. The occupation of the line of the Upper Vistula by the Austro-German army would be of importance only in that Cracow would remain in the hands of Austria and the line of the Upper Oder would be pro tected.

A Crew Town Councillor made a novel offer. He is one of those recently returned to the Council unopposed, and in consideration of having been saved the personal expenses of a contest he offers during his term of office or while the war lasts to clothe six boys of Crewe men whose fathers are fighting at the front or six boys of Belgian refugees quartered at Crewe t *