THE New Zealand Herald. AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. FRIDAY, OCTOBER 2, 1914. TWO MONTHS OF WAR.

New Zealand Herald, Volume LI, Issue 15729, 2 October 1914, Page 4

THE New Zealand Herald. AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. FRIDAY, OCTOBER 2, 1914. TWO MONTHS OF WAR.

.— «» At the, beginning of October, 1870, the' German armies had just completed the investment of Paris, one French army and the Emperor had been captured, and tho other imprisoned in Metz. The Germans had dono their worst and the chapter of tho war which is vlcasfc creditable to the French closed. The Third Empire had fallen, and a republican Government of National Defence had appealod to France to rouse herself and make tho' effort which prolonged the war into the following year and did much to rehabilitate the French nation in tho eyes of Europe. On October 1, 1914, the Paris correspondent, of a London newspaper writes: "The officials believe that the worst is over." When every allowance is mado for the natural bias of French official opinion there is very substantial reason for believing that history is about to be marked by a coincidence of dates and that tho first chapter of tho war has been closed, and a second has been opened which will complete the defeat of tho German plan of international brigandage. There arc three phases of the campaign, so far as it has developed, that stand out as specially significant. The first was the unexpected resistance of tho Belgians, who, relying on the promise of Britain that recompense would bo made to them, stemmed the tide of German invasion for many precious days regardless of the devastation of their country. Tho second important phase was when the Allies, having evaded a decisive issue till the time was opportune, found themselves strong enough to fling the invaders from tho very gates of Paris in full flight across the Marne. This turn-

ing of defence into offenco marked, the failure of that which tho Allies had feared most, and on which the Germans had relied' most— first blow of the huge military machine which Prussianised Germany had been careful to, keep always efficient and ready to strike. Tho third stage of the campaign h that which has developed along the banks of the Aisne within the last few days, and which is marked by the inability of the Germans to resume the offensive. Their forces were rallied in care-fully-prepared positions; reinforcements and: siege guns ha,vo been hurried to the fighting line; life ha! been prodigally squandered in ,an attempt to pierce the Allied line; but as ; the Germans themselves admit, they have failed to arrest . tho advance.of the Allies on their left wing, and they have lost ground in the centre. The Germany ' Army, organised and' trained for attack, is having the role of defence imposed on'it,: and is slowly losing what it gained in the first weeks of the war. Therein is the ground of the French hope that " the worst is over." The war has had a duration of just nine weeks, and the failure of the German. Army may best be appreciated by drawing a contrast with the first nine weeks of the war of 1870. The mobilidttion order was telegraphed over Prussia on July 15, 1870, and the ninth week of the war, therefore, closed on September 16, on which date two German armies were arriving before Paris, into which had fled the remnants of the French field forces. The road to the capital had been opened a fortnight earlier by the surrender of S,edan, and the regular army of Franco had been practically destroyed. Nominally, indeed, there were still 500,000 Frenchmen of tho regular army available, but they were chiefly recruits and reservists, and the later heroic struggles of Franee were made by the citizen army, which sprang ihto being when the nation—which. had been little more than a spectator up till now— took the burden of fighting upon itself. On August 4, 1870, the Germans gained their first victory at Weissenburg; two days later followed the more important action at Worth; and by the 19th. Bazaine's array. had been driven into Metz, and the investment of that fortress had been commenced. By the end of the month MacMahon had been driven into Sedan and compelled to surrender. In less than a calendar month from the first action the French resistance had been crushed and the road opened to Paris. Very different is the position to-day, when the unflinching -armies of the Allies stand between the Germans and their goal,, and the tide of invasion, having 1 broken and spent itself on the disciplined ranks of the British and French, is receding. To draw parallels iii warfare is often misleading, but these campaigns are fairly comparable. German strategy has not changed. As in 1870, so in 1914 it aimed at shat-

tering the enemy by a series of swift, powerful attacks. Victory was to be won in the teeth of time, not by deliberate attrition of the enemy. As in 1870, so in 1914 the German Army is organised and trained for a short, sharp campaign.

Now, as then, German generals are careless of losses and wanton with human life, their .one object being to overwhelm the enemy at whatever cost. In 1914, even more than in 1870, it was an urgent military

necessity that - the; first blow : should be delivered with the - whole power of the German Empire, , because, even less ' than in 1870, is Germany able'' to stand the drain of a long war, and she is fighting states of practically unlimited resources. Therefore, the French may.well be excused if, having turned the first blow, they say: "The worst is over." ;.