THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. MONDAY, OCTOBER 14, 1912. BALKAN COMPLICATIONS.

New Zealand Herald, Volume XLIX, Issue 15123, 14 October 1912, Page 6

THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. MONDAY, OCTOBER 14, 1912. BALKAN COMPLICATIONS.

The development of the Balkan situation leaves little room to doubt that the lack of unanimity among the European Powers, noticeable during recent negotiations, is responsible for the failure of the international attempt to preserve the peace. Britain is pi-obably the onlyPower which was honestly desirous of securing administrative reforms in Macedonia without destroying the authority of the Sultan, having nothing to gain by any dismemberment of the Ottoman Empire and something to lose by the passing of: Turkish territory into possibly hostile, hands. Admittedly, the British interest in the maintenance of the integrity and independence of Turkey is not what it was : half-a-century ago but the desire of Britain to avoid any serious rupture of international peace is as strong as ever, and if great Powers begin to quarrel over the partition of Turkey there j is no saying where the quarrel will; end. France and Germany have i little more than commercial interests in the Balkan Peninsula, but France is pledged to further the policy of her treaty ally, Russia, while Germany is not only concerned for her valuable concessions in Asia. Minor, but committed to the support of her ally, Austria. .We have, therefore, to consider the diplomatic rivalry, of ! Austria and Russia* in the Balkans,' and to remember that Italy has long had the ambition of' extending her I territory across the Adriatic and thus obtaining access to the fertile plains of Macedonia. The. Italian press and people were bitterly in- ' censed Iby the Austrian annexation of Bosnia and Herzegovina: The popular Italian view of this incident was that Italy had been tricked in some way out of her fair share of the good things to be picked up on the opposing Adriatic coast; the wisdom of adhering to the Triple Alliance was widely questioned. Notoriously, Tripoli was assigned to Italy by the Triple Alliance in compensation for her previous disappointments and to strengthen her wavering fidelity, but it is questionable if the Italians are convinced that this generous gift from Austria and Germany at Turkey's expense fully discharges their claim to consideration. Germany's relations to Austria and Italy are delicate. The understanding between France and Britain makes it more necessary than ever that she should be able to create a diversion in the south-east of France and hold the French fleet in the Mediterranean when she makes her long contemplated bid. the mastery of the North Sea. With Austria to assist her against Russia and Italy to assist her against France, Germany would be in a strong military position, but no bargain can be wholly one-sided, and Germany in her turn must assist Austrian and Italian designs. How are Austrian and Italian hopes and designs in the Balkans to be harmonised if the dismemberment of Turkey is commenced by the Balkan States, especially in view of the fact that every ambitious Power much prefers to place a weak State in temporary possession of coveted territory rather than see that territory absorbed by a great and powerful empire? Bus-' sia has little hope of immediate ter-' ritorial aggrandisement in the Balkans, but Russia gains through every acquisition of territory by petty Balkan kingdoms over whom she exercises the influence of patron and protector. Italy may be willing to concede much under such circumstances in exchange for footing east of the Adriatic, but what of Austria ? Austria has long had her eyes on Salonika and Macedonia and cannot be well disposed to any nationMontenegrin, Servian or Italian— which balked her patient policy; she is as little inclined to approve an autonomous Macedonia, the solution of the situation desired by the statesmen of Britain.

The vaunted European Concert is plainly not a substantial one, although both Britain and Austria -may thoroughly agree that it would be best to patch up the Balkan question until the day when there is some more authoritative voice in the

councils of Europe. To-day there is no great Power at the head of the council table. Neither Russia nor Germany, neither France nor Britain, can speak the deciding word. Turkey knows this; the Balkan States know* this. Europe has solemnly demanded of Turkey the institution of ' absolutely necessary reforms in Macedonia and Albania, but practically nothing has been done. Europe has solemnly assured the Balkan States that if they seize any Turkish territory they will be compelled to return it, but nobody seems to treat this seriously. King Nicholas knows that Italy will not look calmly on while Austrian troops drive his Montenegrins out of a, captured Scutari and retain it for the Emperor Francis Joseph. Servia and Bulgaria know that if they can push the Turks from Epirus, Russia and Roumania will . never allow Austrian armies to evict the liberators. Greece is not afraid of the Austrian at Salonika if once she can reach that longed-for Macedonian capital. Evidently there is no more likelihood of enforcing the decrees of Europe upon the Balkan States than upon Turkey itself. Britain needs her troops at Home. France will not lift a finger in tne Balkans without Russia. Russia is undoubtedly sympathetic with the Balkan attack on Turkey, and unqualifiedly opposed to any increase of Austrian influence in that quarter. Italy is covetous .'for herself and jealous of Austria. Germany looks to the north not to the south, and only regards the Balkans as the region from which is to come the price of Austrian alliance. Briefly: the situation bristles with complications, and is not to be regarded as within the control of a band of cooperating diplomatists and states.men. The mainstay of international peace, strangely enough, is the Turk himself. He is hopeless as an administrator, barbaric as a conqueror ; but he is a magnificent fighter and never better than when he fights against odds. If the Balkan States strip the Turk there is a most serious danger that Austria may drag Europe into international war in her eagerness to seize upon the spoil; but if the Turk beats off his assailants and becomes himself the attacker Europe will harmoniously intervene to protect the aggressors. For neither Austria nor Russia has any intention of permitting Turkey to become stronger or to assist in any renaissance of the once great Ottoman Empire,