THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 29, 1912. THE AMERICAN PRESIDENCY.

New Zealand Herald, Volume XLIX, Issue 14929, 29 February 1912, Page 6

THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 29, 1912. THE AMERICAN PRESIDENCY.

In the picturesque language of Mr. Roosevelt " his hat is in the ring and is going to stay there," which being interpreted into the King's English means that he is going to attempt to secure nomination for the Presidency from the Republican Party. Though he has of late fallen considerably into the background the ex-President is still a force in American politics, and his intrusion into the arena at the present juncture is fraught with possibilities. Of course Mr. Taft will do his best to defeat his quondam friend, and his best may be much' better than is generally supposed by those who appreciate the vigorous qualities of Mr. Roosevelt:. For if Mr. Roosevelt is the champion of progressive" Republicans and if his candidature is eagerly urged by those who expect him to draw largely from the Democratic enemy, Mr. Taft has the support of the most influential of the Republican party leaders, and is favoured by those who regard a stable Government as the most desirable of political blessings. Mr. Roosevelt, like his old antagonist Mr. Bryan, is a very popular speaker, and has an instinctive skill in swaying the feelings of political gatherings. But though Mr. Taft lacks this valuable political quality he has what many influential citizens regard as the supreme advantage of being "'safe," while it is.generally recognised that Mr. Roosevelt might propose startling changes. In fact, Mr. Roosevelt owes no small part of his popularity to the widespread American belief that he will go as far towards reform as he can carry his party, and that his noted energy is a very necessary influence in a political organisation which has become automatic and unsentimental. Mr. Taft, on the other hand, is regarded as much less inclined to ■ drastic reforms, and is therefore preferred by those, who would retain the traditional methods of a party which with very little

interruption has dominated the United States since the election of Mr. Lincoln. Having offered himself for Presidential candidature at the approaching Republican Convention Mr. Roosevelt is losing no time in mustering his forces in preparation for the battle. Theoretically there are two battles, the struggle at the Convention for the Republican nomination and the struggle at the polls for the electoral majority. In effect, however, the nominee of the Republican Convention is reasonably assured of election if he is a popular candidate. Had the Republican Party contained no " progressive" element it would probably have been submerged by the popular, belief that it is inclined to deal too gently with the " trusts." But just as there is a strong conservative element in the American- Democratic Party, so there is a strong "progressive" element, known as "the Insurgents," in the Republican Party and Mr. Roosevelt's candidature has been long and loudly called for on the ground that he is the most "progressive" candidate whom either party has the slightest hope of electing.

Although it is never wise to prophesy too confidently in American politics— a two-thirds majority is required to secure a Presidential nomination at any party convention —the probabilities are that either Mr. Taft or Mr. Eoosevelt will carry the Republican standard. The only alternative is that a "dark horse" may come to the front while the rival factions struggle vainly to secure the necessary majority, and this alternative is regarded as unlikely owing to the great necessity to secure wavering voters by offering a strong Republican candidate. For on the Democratic side, Dr. Woodrow Wilson is a possible candidate, and is causing more uneasiness to the Republican managers than has latterly been caused by Mr. Bryan. Dr. Woodrow Wilson—to use the style of address employed by his countrymen —is a Democrat of the old type modernised. He is a cultured scholar, a university authority, a great civic administrator, a popular State Governor, and undoubtedly a very able and capable man. Beside his transcendental qualities the commonplace claims of Mr. Champ Clark, Mr. Hearst, Mr. Bryan, and other aspirants appear insignificant, and it is possible that/ the desire of the rank and file of the party to fight a Presidential campaign under a leader who recalls the best traditions and who would admittedly be very popular with thoughtful Americans, may compel Dr. Woodrow Wilson's nomination. Mr. Bryan is suspected by Democrats of following the tactics employed by Mr. Roose—of waiting to be pressed into consent to a nomination he professes not to seek. But Mr. Bryan has only led his party to defeat, while Mr. Roosevelt has led his party to victory after victory. If Mr. Bryan is nominated by the Democratic Convention the result of the election is almost a foregone conclusion, but if Dr. Woodrow Wilson finds himself confronted by Mr. Roosevelt then we may expect to see one of the stoutest political. battles that ever closed an American Presidential campaign. For both candidates will be appealing to much the same body of doubtful voters, to that great "middleclass" which, while bound up with the maintenance of law and order, has been profoundly moved and seriously affected by the machinations of the "trusts." In America, as in every other country, the bitterest struggles occur between those statesmen who find themselves fighting on a confusing ground and not between those who appeal to differing constituencies and between whom there are dividing lines, clear and unmistakable.