THE FAR EAST.

New Zealand Herald, Volume XLV, Issue 13782, 22 June 1908, Page 6

THE FAR EAST.

A GBAYE SITUATION. j THE GREAT BOYCOTT. ANOTHER WAR LIKELY. Astoyc the passengers who arrived by the Mokoia from Sydney last evening was Mr. G. VT. S. Patterson, the well-known gum merchant, who has just concluded another tour of the East. Mr. Patterson has paid three visits to China and Japan during the past four years, and on each occasion has made a study of the conditions obtaining there both socially and politically. In the course of an interview with a Herald representative, Mr. Patterson said:"l spent most of the time during my trip in Manchuria, Corea, and Japan, and as a general rule found conditions there to be very unsettled. The situation in Manchuria is becoming very grave indeed, inasmuch as the Japanese are treating the Chinese there as a conquered nation. When the Russians were there they allowed the Chinese to trade, their sole idea apparently being the acquisition of territory, but it is different with the Japanese, who are ignoring China's sovereignty, in every shape and ' form, and wherever possible they confiscate all the trade, with the result that the Chinese, who are born traders, are much incensed, and would welcome the Russians back with open arms. The open-door policy in Manchuria is really a farce as far as the Western nations arc concerned. Japan is arranging it for Japan, and Japan only. Although she does not openly declare it, she really regards Manchuria as part of her Empire, and seems, to resent the intrusion of foreigners. Europeans travelling on the South Manchurian railway are treated with scant courtesy by the Japanese .soldiers and officials. "There can only be one end to the, situation," Mr. Patterson went on, " and that is war between China and Japan; but how soon that will eventuate it is impossible to say. When I came back a year ago 1 foreshadowed that contingency. Ever since the war ended China has been suspicious of Japan, and with reason, and this suspicion has now given way to a bitter feeling, which has been accentuated by the seizure of the Tatsu Maru, and as a result of which the great boycott ■ has been set up. This is the only weapon that China has used up to the present, and it is a very effective one, in that it is crippling Japan's industries, and therefore her financial position. If China is true to her declaration that she will make Japan suffer to the extent of the indemnity which the latter country imposed on her, then the result to Japan must be disastrous." JAPANESE RULE.IN COREA. "The position in Corea," continued Mr. Patterson, "is that Core? is gradually passing into the hands of the Japanese, contrary to the whole _ spirit of the Japanese 'international obligations. Japan •is playing a double part there. She entered the country as its friend and protector, but is now acquiring supreme power by devious methods. She is filling all the official poets with Japanese, is endeavouring to force her language on the people by teaching it only in the schools and — the the Coreans say—is seizing.land and property without, respect to persons or rights. What Japan seems to be afraid of is that if Corea getr> into any other nation's hands it will seriously affect Japan's strategical position in Asia. Japan is thus playing into Russia's hands. There is bound to be friction between China and Japan in the future, and Russia, I believe, is backing up China. She would be very glad to see China become the aggressor, and then come in later on. Within the next 10 years Russia will be in a better position to fight Japan than she was before the late war. The Duma has sanctioned the construction of the Amur railway, which is to link up her Manchurian system with her Siberian base. They have also decided on duplicating the Siberian line, and the Orenburg-Tashkcnd line, which joins Turkestan to European Russia, is to be connected with the Siberian line. Further than that a line is projected from Baikal across the Mongolian desert to within striking distance of Pekin, thus flanking the Japanese position in Manchuria and 'bringing Siberia as a military basis into close and direct contact with the sea. Russia has not been morally or permanently injured by the late war, and with a view to ultimately gaining her ascendancy in the East is rapidly concentrating a great military force on the frontier or within striking distance. She is establishing great military stores in the Trans-Baikal region, and these will ultimately be turned into arsenals. In Vladivostok she has increased her forces there, to twelve battalions, and will ultimately have no fewer than 250,000 men ready at a moment's call east of and around Lake Baikal, which is only 700 mites from the disputed zone in Manchuria, and within six weeks would be able to strengthen this force by another 250,000. She is also settling Siberia with young men as rapidly as possible, so that these may be called on to defend their homes."

NOT MUCH HOPE FOR JAPAN. "You don't hold out much hope for Japan, then?" " No,' Ido not. Japan is really to-day on the verge of bankruptcy. What she is doing now in building ships is really being done on. borrowed money, which was raised during the war, and this will soon give outRussia, on the other hand, has immense resources behind her, and is going to use them. Japan's victory,-1 consider, in the late war, was really one of the greatest calamities that fiver happened, so far as the Western nations are concerned. If set the coloured nations thinking, and is responsible to a. very great extent for what is going on in India at the present time." Speaking with regard to the awakening of China. Mr. Patterson, stated that she was not at all aggressively inclined, and, so far as he could see from the trend of events, neither Australia nor New Zealand need be afraid of the yellow peril from either China or Japan, for the next 25 years. " What," he said. "we have to pray for, so far as Japan herself is concerned, is* Russian interference. The renew a of the Anglo-Japa-nese treaty on the more comprehensive scale is, I might say, considered by Europeans in the East as a political blunder on England's part of the first magnitude."