THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. SATURDAY, APRIL 18, 1908. THE MANCHESTER ELECTION.

New Zealand Herald, Volume XLV, Issue 13727, 18 April 1908, Page 4

THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. SATURDAY, APRIL 18, 1908. THE MANCHESTER ELECTION.

The colonies are doubly interested in the hotly-contested Manchester election; primarily because the Tariff Question, which so fundament- ; ally affects our trade with the United Kingdom, is there being fought over in the stronghold which has given its popular name to uncompromising Tree Trade ; and, secondarily, because Mr. Winston Churchill's official connection with the Colonial Office has made him prominent, though hardly popular, in the colonial view of Imperial affairs. The Unionist candidate appears to be lukewarm on the fiscal problem, but that does not affect the fact that Free Trade is battling for its life. From the speech of Mr. Winston Churchill, summarised in our cable messages of this morning, it is evident that the new Asquith Administration has been forced to recognise the impossibility of maintaining the present fiscal policy, unless it attempts to meet the clamour for social reforms. The Unionist candidate's lukewarmness on the matter doos riot affect the fact that in Manchester the Tariff Reformers have been repeatedly charged with attempting to bribe the electors into acceptance of a protective and preferential tariff by promise of Old Age Pensions from the augmented, revenue thereby attainable, as well as by prophecy of increased industrial activity through the reduction of foreign importations. A year ago Mr. Asquith stated in the Commons that he was altogether sympathetic with the Old Age Pension theory, but did not see where the money was to come from. Mr. Winston Churchill, presumably with Mr. Asquith's approval, now declares that the Government can finance " a reasonable and prudent scheme of Old Age Pensions" without any increased taxation, as there is this year a surplus of £4,750,000, with an estimated future revenue increase of £2,000,000 upon the existing taxation basis. We have, there- , fore, what was inevitable from the beginning, both parties in British politics competing with one another in what has been loudly denounced by the Free Trade apologists as " bribery of the masses," but it remains to be seen whether the attempt to " dish the Tariff Reformers" will be successful. On the face of things, it appears extremely unlikely. For Mr. Winston Churchill's vague programme involves the setting aside of " ten or twelve millions a year for useful purposes of social reform,'' from a revenue of which the taxation basis is not to be altered, and which is obviously liable to contraction, as well as to expansion, and to- be

9 drawn upon for any unavoidable increases in expenditure. There is absolutely no guarantee that the present taxatio basis of the United Kingdom will be sufficient for future emergencies with Old Age Pension charges added. Nor can effective military and naval defences be maintained if every penny is to foe grudged, as grudged it must be, if an attempt is made to pay pensions without increasing the sources of revenue. Upon the imperative necessity for increased revenue the Tariff Question is beginning to turn —even in Manchester.

It is much too late in the clay for any 'British Party which hopes to retain office or to attain office to hesitate . over Old Age Pension. From the time when Mr. Charles j, Booth contributed to economics his masterly impeachment of the Poor Law System as it exists in the United Kingdom, and when Mr. Joseph Chamberlain asserted Old Age Pension to he within the range of practical politics, it has been steadily corning to the front. Only one consideration delays its adop- | tion—that of finance. The enormous I sum of £20,000,000 yearly would be | required to pay an Old Age Pension ; of live shillings weekly in the United ■ Kingdom, and it goes without saying that the raising of this amount is not popular with any Chancellor of the Exchequer who has to approach taxation upon the lines of the Manchester Doctrine. Which I affords an exceptional opportunity 1 for the Tariff Reformer to point out that a duty upon foreign importations of goods which can be manufactured or produced inside the \ three kingdoms will not only give i employment to those able to work, by fostering and encouraging local industries, but will " make the foreigners pay" for the pensioning of those unable to work. This view of the Tariff Question is apparently the growing and the popular one, although it is bitterly opposed, not only by those who regard "Free Import'' as the source of England's greatness, and as an economic revelation, but also by those who hope to divert the-necessity for increased national revenue into a confiscatory land tax. The latter influence is becoming as uncontrollable in British Liberalism as in some of the party organisations of the British colonies and has much to do with the stubborn resistance to Tariff Reform offered by the Government of the day. Among the new men introduced into the Cabinet by Mr. Asquith's reconstruction this element is very marked, and the outcome may be very different to what has been anticipated by the Free Traders of the old Manchester School. For the popular appetite for Old Age Pension and other expensive social reforms cannot but be whetted by the rival pleadings of fiscal opponents, with the result that the Liberal Party of the near future may find that it has driven the moderates over to the Reformers, and that it is committed to the raising of extraordinary amounts by taxes which are confiscatory in form and revolutionary in principle. Whatever the result of the Manchester election, the relations of the opposing , parties can hardly be the same as they were before, even though the Unionist candidate is attempting to avoid a direct fiscal issue. For the Tariff Question, with its unavoidable complications of pensions and taxes, and economies, and social reforms in general, is fast becoming the question of questions to the average British elector.