THE INTERNATIONAL SITUATION.

New Zealand Herald, Volume XL, Issue 12269, 13 May 1903, Page 1 (Supplement)

THE INTERNATIONAL SITUATION.

THUNDER -CLOUDS IN THE NEAR EAST. GRATE PORTENTS.

NEW ANGLO-GERMAN ENTENTE.

ENGLAND AND BELGIUM.

ROYAL AND IMPERIAL CANVASSERS. FROM OUR OWN CORRESPONDENT.]

London, April 11. When the Sultan of Turkey promised wholesale radical reform of the infamous misgovernment and oppression under which Macedonia so long had groaned, nobody believed for one moment that Abdul Hamid was sincere in this promise. Europe has had such long and bitter experience of his extreme duplicity , and the misdirected cleverness with which he hud contrived to bamboozle successively each of the great Powers, is too fresh in one's memory to warrant any very sanguine hopes of any new departure in his case. But the wily Abdul had other cards up his sleeve that even those who know him so well never dreamed of. "It is true," he says iu effect, " I pronTised sweeping reforms in Macedonia; how can I carry them out if another lot of my subjects close by object so strongly that they are rising in armed revolt against reform?" And herein he is literally telling the truth, for the Albanians have managed to get up a very awkward revolt, and with a deplorable want of tact one of their initial steps has been to shoot a Russian Consul, thus complicating the task which lies before the well-meaning and ingenuous Abdul. Naturally this indiscretion on the part of the Albanians introduces a fiesh and troublesome complication into the already complex problem, for it apparently imposes upon the gentle Abdul the necessity of putting down the Albanian revolt, which some people were disagreeable enough to hint might possibly have been started by private instructions from the Yildiz Kiosk. But as Russia, and Austria have virtually forced on the. Sultan the reform movement they could hardly be expected to tolerate its suspension or -abandonment at the dictation of the Albanians, especially as these latter have directed their first operations against Russia herself in the person of her Consul. Meanwhile, the Macedonians are going ahead with refreshing vigour. They have risen in several different parts of the country, and the anti-Turkish demonstration appears to gain strength daily. It need hardly be added that " atrocities" are already being freely charged against all three parties to this "triangular duel"Macedonians, Albanians, and Turks—and the question daily becomes more imminent as to when Russia, either alone or in concert with Austria, may feel it incumbent upon her to intervene with a strong hand. "After which the Deluge!" Abdul Hamid would not be acting up to his long understood character of astuteness if he contented himself with one string to his bow or even two. He is understood to have a third in hand all ready for use. It is not a new one, but it has served its purpose well in the past. It is of course Armenia. The Kurds are already showing signs of activity, and it is freely reported that a fresh set of Armenian massacres will begin very soon. Not that the Sultan has any personal feeling against his Armenian subjects, only - a diversion is imperatively required, and so if it should be necessary to make them the sacrifice they will have to make the best of it. It must be very nice to live under Ottoman rule! While Russian and Austria are carefully considering the case and are ostensibly bringing all possible peaceful pressure to bear upon Turkey, with the view alike of compelling Macedonian reforms to be carried out and of causing the Albanian revolt against those reforms to.be checked, England, France, and Italy have acted "on their own," and have made a strong joint representation to Turkey on the subject. It is whispered, indeed, that a very straight warning has been given to the Sultan that failure on his part this time to carry out his pledges and to give effect to the opinion of Europe will bring upon him almost inevitably the destruction of his empire and the loss of his throne.

Here then we ' have two groups of the great Powers actively occupied in bringing separate pressure to bear upon the Porte —in fact, a fresh Triple and a fresh Dual Alliance. Yet it is by no means uncertain that the Sultan, whom a very capable judge has pronounced to be by far the ablest statesman in Europe, may succeed in " diddling" them. all. For it will no doubt have been observed that in the list of great pieces which I have already mentioned as participating in the European game of chess, one is absent. That of course is Germany. And fis yet nobody knows definitely what line Germany will take on this occasion. In Bismarckian days the great Chancellor, the man of " blood and iron," frankly declared that he did not deem the entire Eastern Question worth the bones of a single Pomeranian Grenadier. But teinpoi-a 7mitantur. and a good deal has happened since that time. Nobody doubts that Germany will find some means of turning the situation to her own account. The question is How? She has an almost morbid dread of getting at loggerheads with Russia, vet it is difficult to conceive any overt action on Germany's part that can be other than antagonistic to Russian interests. The Kaiser has long posed as the special friend of the Sultan. ■ It has been one of his main objects to convince Abdul Hamid that he, William 11., was? the veritable Codlin, all the other European potentates being mere negliceable Shorts. The day seems to be rapidly approaching when ' the German Emperoi will be called upon to elect whose cause he will espouse. Naturally the next question which suggests itself is, What would France's attitude be? Would she. give practical and active effect to her alliance with Russia? At present there seems some probability in the affirmative. But on the other hand that tends to be largely counterbalanced by the rapidly improving entente cordiale between France and England. Now here there seems good reason to believe that Britain will profit largely by the enormous personal popularity of King Edward VII. among the Latin races. There was a time when Portugal displayed some aloofness, if not a touch of unfriendliness. That has died away, but now, thanks to the visit of the King and his most admirable and tactful methods, the soul of all Portugal from the King downward, has gone forth in the demonstration of most enthusiastic affection for England and her King. In the singularly judicious and skilful speeches King Edward delicately brought out several respects in which Portugal might give valuable aid to this country in case of war. Significance no doubt may also be found in the facts that King Edward is about to visit, for the first time since his accession, both Italy and France ßome and Paris— and that a reception which promises to be little less enthusiastic than that of Portugal is preparing for him in each country. This might perhaps have been expected in the case of Italy, as the Italians have always recognised the warm friendship which England lias shown them as a nation and the hearty sympathy that this country has ever felt with the Italians' efforts to secure the liberation and independence of their nation. But in the case of France some doubt may have existed whether what was persistently represented as the Fashoda humiliation had yet been entirely forgotten, or whether the financial failure sustained by the Paris Exhibition of 1900 through the general abstention of the British from visiting that unparalleled show had been wholly forgiven notwithstanding—or perhaps I should rather say, because —such abstention was due to the bitterly unfriendly attitude of the Parisians themselves. xi small cloud has arisen on the horizon of the Upper Nile, due to an effort made by the British Government to obtain on behalf of Egypt the cession of a small area on the upper waters of the Nile at present

held under lease by the Congo State under Belgian auspices. It is reported that the King of the Belgians has objected very strongly to agree to this proposal. England, however, is firmly bent on obtaining for Egypt full control" of the Nile along its entire course from the Nyanza to the sea, and it is believed that her designs in this respect will not be daunted by Belgian objections, but that her efforts will be con-. tinued unrelaxingly, and the general impression is that, the outcome will take some form of compensation for Belgium for the concession if ultimately made.

As if all the complications which I have sketched above were not enough for* one ; " political pie" news comes of a. fresh trouble in the direction most certain of any to involve this country in war, should it assume capital, proportions, for it. has turned up in the Korean Peninsula, where Russia and Japan— ok at least their interestsapproach nearest of all to the point of possible clashing. Russia and Japan both have put forward certain claims in connection with a particular area in Korea. The matter is still undecided as I write, but I need not pom* out that if both parties remain obstinate and a rupture should ensue, England is bound by her treaty of alliance with Japan to come to the assistance of the latter with the full power of her Empire. In one of this evening's papers appears a remarkable article from the pen of no less an authority than Karl Blind, who sounds a most impressive note of friendly warning against Russian design toward India.' Heir Blind holds-that through our apathy and inertia with regard to Afghanistan, we have seriously alienated alike the ruler and the people of that country, and that of late various influences have been moving and preparations proceeding of <n nature distinctly inimical to British interests and exceedingly disquieting to contemplate in respect of their possible result. The gravity of such a warning at such a juncture as the present can hardly be overrated, and New Zealand will do well to bear in mind, in view of Russia's known intentions in her direction in the event of war with England, the need of being ever prepared for all contingencies with whatever unexpected suddenness such may arise.