NEW ZEALAND POPULATION STATISTICS.

New Zealand Herald, Volume XL, Issue 12213, 7 March 1903, Page 1 (Supplement)

NEW ZEALAND POPULATION STATISTICS.

A CHAT WITH PROFESSOR SEGAR.

INCREASING OLD AGE PENSIONS.

Mr. "H. W. Segar, M.A., Professor of Mathematics at the University College, Auckland, has made a patient and searching investigation of the ages over which the population of New Zealand is distributed, the birth and death rates for many years past, and cognate subjects. The results of his investigations were largely set forth in a lecture which he delivered under the auspices of the New Zealand Institute, in June, 1900. Since then a census has been taken, throwing a flood of light on the question. Professor Segar has gone very carefully through the new facts thus adduced, and, as his opinions upon the matter cannot but be of great value to the student, as well as of interest to the general public, a Herald reporter called upon him at his residence yesterday, and obtained an interview. "I have called, hoping you might have some remarks of interest to make on the results of the late census," said our representative. The Professor smilingly replied : — " I am glad you have come, and thus given me a suitable opportunity of calling attention to the great increase in the number of old people of the age of 65 years and over, that took place between the last two censuses. Whereas this section of the population formed in 1896 only 2.95 per cent, of the whole, in 1901 they formed no less than 4.06 per cent. The numbers were in the respective years, 20,756 and 31,353, the increase being 10,597, or over 50 per cent. In the presidential address for 1900, at the Auckland Institute, I estimated that the number in 1901 would be about 28,024. This forecast, which was received doubtingly by many, lias thus proved to be very-much below the actual number, the difference being over 3000. The discrepancy is no doubt chiefly due to the influence of the old age pensions; there is now • this influence counteracting the prevailing tendency due to vanity of returning oil the census papers ages less than the true ones." " Is there any other noteworthy feature as to the ages of the people?" " Yes ; it is a very significant fact that an approximately stationary age distribution characterises the portion of the population under 25 years of age. The number of children under five years of age is only slightly in excess of the number of persons between 20 and 25 years of age; there are actually more of the latter now living than will be found surviving of the former 20 years hence; and so generally within these ages there are not sufficient numbers of the younger folk living to take the places of their seniors in course of time; this means that we must depend for some years on immigration, if we are even merely to keep up fully our population of school age, and of the age of young manhood. This state of things arises, of course, from the rapidly diminishing birth-rate of past years. I may illustrate by another fact how the falling-off in the birth-rate has affected the age-distribu-tion of the people. In 1881 the number of children in the age period 0-5 years was double the number of persons in the period 20-25, instead of being almost equal to it, as in 1901." This topic has been much discussed of late ?"

"It has been; and it is remarkable that no one of the many correspondents that have been tackling the question in the public press has seemed in any way conscious of the fact that they were discussing a state of things that no longer exists. In the year 1900, the birth-rate of New Zealand took a big turn upwards, and improved still more in the following year, so that during these two years the increase was 'greater than the fall for the preceding three years. Ido not yet know the birth-rate for last year, but I fully anticipate if will reach a still larger figure. Still, when the statistics.are fully considered, there is small room for satisfaction , for between the last two censuses the number of females of reproductive ages increased 15.92 per cent., whereas, the total population increased only 9.86 per cent. This disproportionate increase ill the number of females at child-bearing ages explains the improvement in the birth-rate only too completely. The increase in the number of births in. 1901, as compared with 1896, was only 10.09 per cent., a great contrast to the increase of nearly 16 per cent, in the number of possible mothers. The number of births in 1901 would have been greater by no less than 1084 if the births had increased during the five years between the two censuses at the same rate as the number of females at reproductive ages. Thus, at the very time when the birth-rate increases for the first time in 20 years', a further growth of the habit of restricting families is conclusively established." "Is the improved birth-rate peculiar to New Zealand ?"■

"No; all the Australasian colonies but one (Victoria) showed an improved birthrate in 1900 those colonies, however, of which I have seen later statistics," did not maintain the advance in 1901, whereas New Zealand greatly improved on hers." "We have considered the females in connection with the birth-rate, is there anything to be said about the males in particular ?" ;

"Well, just as we considered the females of reproductive ages, so we may consider the males of supporting or productive' ages (15-65). When we do so we find that the increase in this section of the population between the two censuses was 11.48. This was in spite of the absence of the contingents in South Africa, every man of which, had he been at home, would have helped to swell this increase. If the members of the contingents had not been temporarily absent from the colony the increase would have been considerably over 12 per cent. This increase in the producing, class taking place, while the rest of the population increased only 9.07 per cent., must be classed as one of the influences tending, to promote the recent prosperity of the colony." " Are there any particulars in which the population of the Auckland province differs from that- of the colony as a whole?" "There is a rather interesting difference. The proportion _of the . population between the ages 50-57, is about the same as for the colony as a whole, while for the ages 5-25, it is less, and for the remaining ages greater. Auckland has thus a ■ deficiency of young folk, and an excess of 'those of the most active business ages, and of the very aged, and especially of the latter. These features are the results of rather obvious causes." The question of old age pensions being of more than passing interest, we make no Apology for reproducing from the lecture already referred to the following statements more particularly as, we are assured by Professor Segar, that the census had only helped to confirm them : —

"We have seen that the population of 65 ; •ears of age and over, and therefore qualiied in respect to age for the receipt of old ige pensions, will reach by 1911 a total of about 43,737. If the number of old age pensioners and the cost of the pensions increase proportionally with the number of old people, the rate of increase in the cost of old age pensions will be altogether out of proportion to the rate of increase - of the population, and consequently, under normal circumstances, to the rate of increase of the resources of the country. ... If New Zealand had permanently an annual number of births equal to about 20,000, the total population would '• reach ultimately onlv about 1,100,000, and of these no less than 120,000, or 10.9 per cent, of the whole,' would be old people eligible in respect to age for old age pensions—i.e., the number of old • age pensioners might be expected to.increase somewhere about fivefold, while the whole population increased only about 30 or 40 per cent. Unfortunately, there is too -great a chance that the annual number of births will long remain under or about 20,000, and, as' long as it does, so will the proportion of old' people to the whole population tend towards this limit. - , ; ;;f r. ; ; v

" But not only have we a large, proportionate increase in the cost of old age pensions to expect • from this source, . but we 1 must expect in the future a larger percentage of. the

old people to receive old age pensions than have hitherto taken advantage of them, and this for several reasons. The majority of old people of the present day arrived "here, in the early days of the colony, and it must be expected for several reasons that of these a greater proportion will have succeeded in attaining easy circumstances and providing

for old age than will generally succeed in so doing among a population living through, times of more normal conditions. Again, there will be gradually a smaller and smaller number of old people disinclined to accept pensions because of their savouring of charity and poor-relief, and a smaller and smaller number' who will be disqualified on account of not having lived the requisite minimum number of years in the colony. Moreover, recent years have been very prosperous, and when commercial depression once more returns to us the old will suffer with others, and many now barely provided for by invested savings, or supported by relatives out of their surplus, will then feel the need of other help, and the State is likely, just when it is itself most in need of relief, to have to dispense that commodity to a greater extent than ever."