ENGLAND, FRANCE, AND RUSSIA.

New Zealand Herald, Volume XXXVII, Issue 11346, 14 April 1900, Page 5 (Supplement)

ENGLAND, FRANCE, AND RUSSIA.

SOME REMARKABLE UTTERANCES,

ATTITUDE OP RUSSIA.

DECLARATION BY THE TSAR.

A FRENCH INVASION SCHEME.

[FP.OU OUR OWN COKItESPONDEXT.] Lontjon", March 10. It is curious and instructive to watch the variations which take place from day to day in French ideas about England. A fortnight ago the gay Parisians were rejoicing over our checks and difficulties in South Africa. Some of their prominent writers were strenuously urging that, England being denuded of soldiers, an immediate invasion should be undertaken by France, and it was confidently asserted that 25,000 French troops would capture London "easily."

But now tho French are in a state of abject and drivelling dread. They are convinced at present that this South African war has-been planned by tho "infame Sir Chamberlain" as a mere preliminary canter or " dress rehearsal," in order to get tho British millions of soldiers in lino fighting train preparatory to a sudden invasion of France and her colonies. All is arranged, shriek certain emotional Frenchmen ; France is defenceless, powerless, helpless; her navy is rotten; her defences are tissue-paper; her/irmy is a venal sham; she is at the mercy of the barbarous English, who were foiled for a moment by France's ignominious submission over Fashoda, but who now mean to make one big bite at her and swallow her whole.

Just see, for instance, this article, written only last Monday, by no less a person than M. Paul de Cassagnac. I translate it specially for New Zealand readers. He says: —"It may, perhaps, not he forgotten that I was the first to declare in the French press when the English experienced their first check in the Transvaal Avar the danger which threatened us on the part of England. This note of alarm surprised the public. My agonised disquietude seemed to come as a bolt from the blue in the midst of the universal tranquillity. I appeared in the guise of a 'trouble-feast,' and for a little while the friends of whom England has many among the Paris journals—and several of whom she pays handsomely—held me up to ridicule as a" mere visionary, and as a victim to absurd panic. "It appeared to me, however, certain that England will find the necessity irresistible of regaining her prestige, which has been so seriously damaged by the sudden and unexpected revelation of her military weakness. The more defeats she encounters, the more that necessity will be accentuated. The power of England rests upon her reputation for strength of naval and military organisation. From the day that reputation became impaired it has been for England a matter of life and death to re-establish it, and this will be done by a supreme effort. Otherwise the chinks in her armour would be promptly detected, and that vast edifice, her colonial Empire, erected with so much pains, and by exertions extending over so long a course of time, would be menaced with speedy ruin. " What, then, will be England's course in these circumstances? Whom will she make her victim? The outrage coldly planned and relentlessly inflicted upon France in connection with the Pashoda question affords a sure and precise indication. "It is France and France alone that England would attack, because it would be so easy to humiliate this nation severely with the smallest possible cost or risk of injury to England herself. Franco has been foolish enough to relinquish her right of arming privateers or of employing them in the manner which won so much honour and glory to the French navy in former days. And we have not oven now the courage to resume that right. Our coasts, as a rule, arc without any adequate defences. Our ports, with two or three exceptions, have only enough guns lo attract and draw upon themselves bombardment; hut not enough to make any effective reply. As for places such as Boulogne, Havre, and Marseilles,, which have large open residential districts, they possess only just the number of batteries which would provoke an enemy and justify the storm of iron and fire- which a hostile squadron could rain down upon them. Our colonial Empire, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Ouyone, Bourbon, would be taken from us by a mere turn of the hand. A formidable insurrection would easily be fomented in Madagascar, which would compel us to send to the spot the 1000 or 5000 men who are endeavouring tardily and with inadequate means to fortify Dicgo-Suarez."

After quoting at some length several peeclies made by himself and other memiers M. de Cnssagnao concludes as folows':—"Have 1 made myself clear? Is it not plain that we are on the eve of war villi England? Yes, the fear, the expectation of this war are no mere visionary lightmares, but realities— realities, and ur;ent. It is to be war! Our Government ipenly admits it with singular rashness, ,nd our only consolation is that wo have some breathing time left lis in which to irepare for the inevitable. "It is to this position that we have irought the Republic! After an existence if 30 years, it lias been brought, through lie most utter lank of foresight, through ;rnss incapacity, by allowing our navy to all into total disorganisation and unreadiless, to the verge of a war the most frightill of all that we could possibly become involved in, and one in which we cannot ,vin— in which we must be vanquished ■vilhont even the last resource of a glorious leath!" M. Dclafosse, a reactionary Deputy, who is one of the leading authorities at the Palais Bourbon on foreign questions, made, fast Wednesday, in an article headed 'Approaching Perils," some very noteworthy remarks on the situation. He complained that instead of paying court to England or to Germany, France has preferred to display on different occasions implacable animosity to both Powers. "The hour is bound to strike," he says, 11 when the two nations will feel themselves united by this hostility. France's enmity is an incessant danger to Germany. France's enmity hampers England at every moment. She is in England's way in Newfoundland, China, Siam, Egypt, on the Niger, and in Central Africa. WonN it be a miracle if England, in the hands of Chamberlain and Rnsebcry, were to say to Germany: 'France threatens you and troubles me. Let us unite to cancel her. You want coloniestake hers; and, this done, we shall live in peace.'" M. Dclafosse considers such an argument perfectly logical, and asks whether Russia would step in. He hopes that she might. Rut he has his doubts. "We are not acquainted with the terms of the Franco-Russian entente. We can only note that Russia is becoming more and mora an Asiatic Power, and that her attention is no longer fixed on what is passing in Europe. Who troubled about the partition of Roland in the last century? No one. Who now cares about the extermination of the Boer people? No one. Who would bo likely to rise in our defence if a coalition of England, Germany, and Italy were formed to shatter the power of France?" "The plain truth is," observes one Paris writer, " that every effort having been made to excite Germany and other Powers against England, and having conspicuously failed, anxiety is being felt as to the consequences." Perhaps it is just as well that the French should begin to realise the preposterous folly of which they have'been guilty, or of which they have at least permitted their representative men to he guilty on their behalf. They see now how easily a stale of affairs might arise which would mean absolute ruin to France. Germany declared only a few days ago, with almost brutal frankness, that she means to keep AlsaceLorraine at all costs, and that she does not care two straws whether France likes it or not. Italy, too, a big naval factor in the Mediterranean,-is solidly Anglophile, notwithstanding the insidious efforts of a few Vatican fanatics to instil Anglophobism. Austria goes with Germany. Thus France [is wholly isolated, -

But it may naturally be asked: " What of Russia?" My reply must be in the main a repetition of what I have stated more than once before—that the present Tsar will not allow Russia to be embroiled with England if he can possibly prevent; it. Political or Ministerial influence may one of these days force his hand, by bringing about such a situation as might render even the Autocrat of all the Russias powerless to avert a conflagration. But Nicholas 11. is no fool, and he has a wife who is even less of a fool, and who, moreover, is Queen Victoria's granddaughter. I That my oft-re-peated estimate of the conditions dominating the situation is no mere personal fancy has just received very cogent proof in the shape of a positive and authoritative declaration made by tho Russian • Emperor that he will give no countenance Whatever to any movement in favour of utilising Great Britain's difficulties, but will continue neutral to the end, despite Ministerial proclivities and popular sympathies. I may explain that the occasion of this very decided declaration of policy was the presentation by the War Minister of a project for the seizure of Herat. Lieute-nant-Ceneral Kuronatkin, the present Minister of War, had bestirred himself with a strategic railway, and caused the Kushk branch to be completed sooner than was expected, had a. battalion conveyed to Kushk entirely on his own responsibility, and without the authority or knowledge 01 the Emperor. Having elaborated a plan for seizing Herat, and having obtained for it the approval of the Military Council, he presented it to the Emperor, and profited by tho occasion to remark that if it were pleasing to his Imperial master to utilise the present moment, when England's hands are tied, to order the occupation of Herat, ho (the War Minister) had adopted all the needful measures, and the order would bo carried out promptly and without a hitch. Then it was that'the Tsar said: "It is my intention to maintain the strictest neutrality throughout the war, notwithstanding the display of popular sympathies toward the Boers."

These words are declared to Lave "put an extinguisher upon the plans and aspirations of those whose desire it is to see England and Russia at loggerheads." _In high diplomatic circles the, belief is said to he gaining ground that General Kuropatkiu's tenure of office will be exceptionally short, and among his possible successors the names of General Lobko, member of the Imperial Council, and of General Ptizyrevsky, Chief of Staff of the Warsaw Military District, are mentioned, The French scheme is said to be:—l. To send a force against Morosso so to operate as to incite an outbreak of Mahometan fanaticism such as would compel us to send our Channel fleet to the North African coast, thus leaving the Channel unguarded. 2. To despatch a procession of special trains to the northern ports of France, conveying 150,000 French soldiers, under command of General Jamont, Vice-President of the Syrian Court of War ; the force to comprise the 4th and lOt-li Army Corps, under General liurgere, and two other Army Corps, under General Lucas, together with the Ist and sth Cavalry Divisions. 3, To convey these troops in a fleet of large and fast steamers to a convenient landing-place on the English coast, whence a descent could be made (or attempted!) on London, itself. There is no lack of precision of detail about this strange story, for the information is added that nothing can or will be done until the conversion of the Lebel rifles shall be completed, as this will give the French army bv far the best weapons yet known. It is also added that nothing will be done or disclosed until the influx _of foreign gold expected during the Exposition season shall have definitely ceased. Aprcs cela-le deluge!