Masthead

New Zealand Herald, Volume XXXV, Issue 10751, 12 May 1898, Page 1 (Supplement)

THE SHADOW OF WAR.

. FURTHER ENGLISH PREPARATIONS. A CURIOUS RUMOUR, [troh OUR OWN correspondent.] London, April 7. In my previous letter I gave some curious and interesting particulars of the vast preparations which the Mother Country is making with almbst feverish haste for a tremendous war. A few days after my letter was posted there came another striking corroboration. All the daily newspapers recorded with solemn surprise a discovery that 20 million ball cartridges had been quietly issued to the volunteer authorities throughout the Kingdom this being the supply of ammunition which would ordinarily he issued in case of immediate service— that the War Office declined to answer any interrogations as to the reason for this unusual step. Manifestly a quiet hint was given to the papers that the less said about the matter the better just now, for suddenly the matter was " dropped like a hot potato." It is needless, however, for me to point out that the proceeding entirely fits in with the other preparatory measures which I mentioned last mail. Clearly, the Government mean to leave no stone unturned in.the way of securing efficient preparedness for all contingencies. It is to be hoped that 'the colonies are doing likewise. But why, many people ask, if there is any idea of going to war with Russia over the Chinese question, did not England strike a blow in the first instance while Russia was unprepared in the Far East, instead of waiting until the other side should be ready at 611 points for the encounter? Ah, thereby hangs a tale—or at least a club rumour. It is currently reported, under the breath, In those singular hot-beds of gossip—the West End clubs— Lord Salisbury did most strongly advise the Queen to sanction an ultimatum being sent to Russia, as regarded the proposed occupation of Port Arthur and Talien-Wan, and in the alternative, an immediate declaration of war, so that a first blow might be struck before time for local preparation should be given. And the rumour further goes that Her Majesty flatly ■refused to sanction either declaration or ultimatum, protesting that nothing would induce %er in these late years of her reign to take so terrible a step as to precipitate a great war. 'And, thirdly, the rumour says that Lord Salisbury has consequently been doing what tie can to fight without powder, or—to borrow a venerable Maori simile— play effectively the invidious part of the " Man-of-war without guns."

The simultaneous absence from England of the Sovereign, the Heir-apparent, and the Prime Minister, is adduced in support of these theories, but I confess I do not quite follow the train of reasoning here.

However, it is quite certain that preparations liavo been, and are being, made for a sudiden coup at anymoment. And the experts say plainly that if this coup be not made in the shape of timely attack, it will have to be in somewhat tardy defence. For there exists a •profound conviction among those qualified to 'judge that Russia means to elbow England out of China, and that if England lets her alone she will choose her own most favourable time for doing so.

l There was great jubilation on Monday ••when the news was published that England Had secured the reversion of Wai-hai-wei, and would occupy that vantage ground on the retirement of Japan, which is to take place •when the war indemnity is paid, for which purpose England and Germany have just provided the funds. This is claimed, and apparently with justice, as a counted triumph of British diplomacy, and no doubt, if we are allowed to occupy and fortify Wai-hai-wei it will constitute a very formidable basis in cheek of any Russian encroachments from Talien-Wan, or Port Arthur. A glance at the map will show how favourably it is situWed for such a purpose. Moreover, it is understood that England is taking steps to secure the additional territory needed to ensure the safety of Hongkong, and it is further rumoured that Shanghai and Chusan will be peded or leased to us.

But shall we be allowed to obtain these advantages unmolested and without having to stake our very existence as an empire in a struggle to secure them? That is the question. The prevalent belief among the initiated is that Russia is straining every nerve to strengthen herself in the East, with the object of endeavouring to turn us out, so soon as she is ready, with the assistance of diversions by France in West Africa and Egypt, and by the Boers in South Africa,

It has been discovered that, during the past six months, Russia has been secretly—but assiduously—getting ready for a campaign ill support of her intended acquisition of Port 'Arthur and Talien-Wan. So long ago as last October, 100 heavy long range guns were forwarded in vessels of the Volunteer Fleet, and 120 more are now on their way to Port Arthur. All have been shipped as" material for the Trans-Siberian Railway." At the same time, Vladivostock was so extensively armed and provisioned as to be able to support for two years the Russian fleet in the Chinese waters. Further, the Trans-Siberian railway is being pushed on with the utmost possible rapidity, large bodies of soldiers aiding the regular workmen, and light portable railway materials have been sent out, by means of which, in case of any sudden movement becoming necessary, a light line could speedily be carried through to Port Arthur, thus facilitating the concentration of troops. Also, when the Russian squadron occupied Port Arthur, it carried a complete equipment of harbour mines and torpedoes, so that the entrance could be rendered virtually impregnable.

It was not until all these preparations had been completed that Russia made the sudden demand upon China for the lease of Port [Arthur and Talien-Wan. China temporised, fjufc on the expiration of the time the Czar ■cabled from St. Petersburg ordering the effective occupation of Port Arthur, which accordingly took place on the 13th ult., that port as well as Talien-Wan being thoroughly defended by mines at the entrance and the Russian flag being hoisted. China then accepted the inevitable and granted a 25 years' lease as demanded. 'if''?

The grave situation now created is that as ihe Russian railway to Port Arthur will pass fclose by Pekin, Russia holds the Chinese capital at her mercy and will be able at any 'time to seize it if it be desired to extort further concessions. : Russia can poor in her troops by rail, whereas no other European power can do so. ; Moreover, vast dockyards and workshops' are being ; constructed at .Vladivostok, and there will he others at Port (Arthur, where a huge Russian fleet will.be built, strong enough to dominate those seas, especially with tie aid of Prance and Germany, who are confidently relied on to help Russia in the congenial task of ousting Great Britain from the Far East. This, then, is asserted on authority to be the agreeable little plot '. which has long b'en formed and which is now in full [How formidable a menace it implies to New

Zealand and Australia, calls for no demonstration. *•' '" *'

It is supposed to have been in view of this grave menace that the Salisbury Government desired to take the only defensive course apparently open, . viz.,the Hibernian one of "avoiding a quarrel by striking the first blow. The course contemplated was to blockade Russia at all points, blocking or 1 blowing up the Suez Canal if necessary; to wall up' the Russian squadrons in Port Arthur and Vladivostock by preventing their exit, and so virtually "starving them out;" to bring pressure to bear upon China and prevent the completion of the Trans-Siberian Railway, and if necessary to subvert the present Chinese dynasty; to enlist the active co-operation of Japan, which would be readily and gladly accorded. Further, if the Boers were troublesome they would be dealt with, not by military operations in the field, but by blockade, all their trade and food supplies being cut off until they made submission, as it is ascertained that they are by no means well provisioned in spite of their recent importation of arms and ammunition. It was not believed that if such measures were taken by England, the hostility of either France or Germany would have had to be encountered, while on the other hand it was believed that if any other European Power than Russia had to bo grappled with, the active aid of the Italian fleet would not be lacking. Now, much of what I have written is, as you will at once see, the simple embodiment of mere speculations by naval and military experts upon known data. But taken altogether as a chain composed of alternate links of known facts linked together by the reasoning of capable authorities, it assuredly does present a very serious and alarming view of the existing situation in international politics. It is highly probable that more light may be thrown on the position generally evtn before these lines reach colonial readers, but they will nevertheless be found useful and instructive as elucidating in some degree tho most complex and threatening international situation ot the whole century.