THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 29, 1888.

New Zealand Herald, Volume XXV, Issue 9145, 29 August 1888, Page 4

THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 29, 1888.

It does look as if the crash in Europe would occur sooner than was expected. The alliance between Germany and Russia has been capped by the quarrel between France and Italy, and with this conjunction to his hand the German Chancellor may hasten to bring matters to a head. He knows he cannot be altogether sure of the Russian alliance, and that it is quite possible, although not so probable, that his arrangement with the Czar may fall through, as did the previous one with M. de Giers. The national rivalry between Sclav and Teuton underlies any such alliance. In Russia there are four political parties—or political divisions might be sometimes a better term. The peasantry have still no politics but the will of the Czar; as head of Church as well as State, his word for them is law. At the apex of the political pyramid the Government possesses in the widespread bureaucracy civil and military, and in the new nobility it creates, a powerful political party, but it is mainly sustained by the influence of the Emperor over the mass of the people. The members of the Government and of the official body are very largely drawn from the Baltic provinces of the empire, where the landowners are Germans. In past times they were better fitted for such posts, having more education than the native Russians, and they still abound at the head of affairs

by the force of established usage of vested interests. This is one of the matters complained of by the Old Russian or Pansclavic party, which includes numbers both of the middle classes and the old nobility, and which says that only by constitutional reform can Russia attract the outer Sclavic populations into confederacy with her, and insists that the foreign policy of the empire is managed by men who are foreigners in feeling and purpose. As for the Nihilists, also a party and spasmodically demonstrative, they are really few and scattered, deriving strength from the other, public discontent.

The reader must recollect these facts to understand the present situation, and must likewise bear in mind that in Russia the bureaucratic Government is the proverbial " power behind the throne." The so-called Autocrat is practically expected to take his views from his deferential advisers, whose agents engirdle him. The present Czar, before he put on the crown, abhorred this state of things so much that he joined and figured asleader of the Old Russian party, and it was thought that when he got hold of the sceptre he would summon the Army and mass of the nation to stand by him in effecting a change. His heart failed him, hewever. He had historical examples of the peril of quarrelling with those about him, and doubtless he could not shake himself free from the net. His Government long held him in suspicion; lie was closely watched, virtually imprisoned. It was then that their representative, De Giers, met Prince Bismarck, and a Russo - German alliance was formed. Neither Power was to lend a hand against the ambition of the other, the one in the East, the other in the West. But neither in Germany nor Russia did the public, as represented by the Press, like such dangerous aggrandizement of a peculiarly formidable neighbour and rival. The Moscow Gazette, the boldest organ of the Russian party, hinted such distrust of its Government that they hastened to show their zeal for the national interests and the national prejudices by removing all German officials in their employ from the frontier, and forbidding the official use of the German language in the Teutonic colonies on the Steppes. In fine, the Bismarck and De Giers' alliance fell through, was not backed up on either side. But since then matters have much altered. The Moscow Gazette is not so bold as when guided by the now deceased KatkolF, and the Czar must have got on better terms with his entourage, for, lately boxed up in his palace, he now moves more freely abroad. Then in Germany, the Chancellor is said to have quite satisfied the leaders of parties of the wisdom of his' patriotic diplomacy. And the arrangement he has effected with the Czar must be more reliable than the De Giers one, because the Muscovite sovereign is now in accord with his Government instead of being really their prisoner, and his word can command the obedience of the peasantry and of the army rai

from it. But is the renewed alliance wholly reliable after all ? May not so very uncertain a personage as the present Czar change his mind again 1 Might not his former associates contrive means for him to break loose from his encircling advisers, and once more act on his early sentiments ? The man who in 1871, when his father and predecessor on the throne gave a banquet in St. Petersburg in honour of the crowning of the German Emperor at Versailles, refused to drink the toast of the occasion, and turned clown his glass, may not even yet be regarded in Berlin as a sure ally. Prince Bismarck is likely to turn the alliance to account as soon as possible, but he may also consider it safe to see Russia first commit herself to active operations on the strength of it.

If there be reality in the openly aunounced alliance of Germany and Russia, then the alliance of Germany and Austria ceases to have reality, even though a telegram dated London, 25th instant, says that the visit of the Italian Premier to Prince Bismarck, and his meeting at Eger with the Austrian Premier, " it is believed will result in the conversion of the Triple Alliance into an offensive and defensive union of the three Powers." This must sound very like a grim joke to the ears of politicians at Vienna and Pesth, who at present can only grin and bear it. For what will Russia get by her alliance with Germany, unless she is to have her own way in the Balkan Peninsula, and that must needs touch Austro-Hungary to the quick. It will not do to say that Austria can find compensation for what Kussia may take—that if the latter should annex Bulgaria, the former may annex Servia. That would not answer. There are three chief populations in the Austrian Empire—Germans, Magyars, and Sclavs, the last almost as numerous as the other two together, and there is mutual jealousy. When the Treaty of Berlin practically gave the province of Bosnia to Austria, the Magyars were furious because it added another million to the numerical preponderance of the Sclavs, and they would never consent to a still larger number of the same race being brought into the Empire with Servia. But the fact that Russia, with her Pan-Sclavic projects, claims to be the head of the race, would alone make her presence in the Peninsula peculiarly dangerous to Austria, which has so many Sclavic provinces. Therefore, against a Muscovite advance on Constantinople the Austro - Hungarian forces would be almost sure to co-operate with the Turks and the troops of the free principalities. We have always maintained that in the existing complication of international interests, it would be impossible to foresee, in case of war, who would be enemies oi , who allies after a while, no matter how things might be at the start.