HOW IT HAPPENED.

New Zealand Herald, Volume XXV, Issue 9095, 2 July 1888, Page 5

HOW IT HAPPENED.

THE ESTIMATES INCIDENT IN THE

HOUSE.

WHAT LED TO THE MINISTERIAL DEFEAT.

ACTION OF THE ECONOMISTS.

TEACHING THE PREMIER A

LESSON.

THE POLITICAL SITUATION.

[by telegraph.—-special CORRESPONDENT.] Wellington, Saturday. The so-called " : Ministerial crisis" came about last night very unexpectedly. Owing to the Customs and Excise Bill, with its numerous alterations and amendments, not being out of the hands of the printer, the Premier decided to go on with the Estimates. Up to a late hour of the afternoon it was a matter of doubt, so far as members wore generally aware, whether they would come on or not, and Mr. Fish at the outset of the evening sitting complained of the procedure as "asurpriee." The Premier, however, was bent on carrying his point, and insisted upon proceeding with the business as he had arranged it. ,' ~ • /• ■ HOW IT CAME ABOUT. And here comes in the explanation of the adverse division, and the sudden temporary accession of strength to the Opposition. A number of the deputation of the Retrenchment Committee: to the Premier felt somewhat nc tiled at the vague and unsatisfactory character of his reply to their representations. They expe'eted something better than an official utterance that he would consider their suggestions, but declined to be in any way oound to accept them.. Accordingly, as soon as they saw he was determined to go on with the Estimates one ' of the Auckland members of the deputation communicated with Mr. Seddon with a view to getting him to move the adjournment of the debate, and they would support it, so as to gain time till Tuesday to elicit a more satisfactory reply from the Premier. This explains the defeat of the Government, it was simply meant as a gentle slap in the face on the .part of a section of the House who think highly of the Premier, and desire his continuance in power, but resent what they regard 'as his masterful leadership of the Houho. ' ■

THE AUCKLAND MEMBERS IN IT.

Another reason was that several Auckland members resented Sir John Hall's treatment of Mr. Monk, and the manner in which he replied to that gentleman's views on retrenchment. Several leading members of the-retrenchment party inform mo that they arc quite willing to pass the present Estimates, if the Premier will give them a positive assurance that he will go on with the work of further retrenchment and amalgamation of offices during the recess. THE STATE OF PARTY FEELING.

At present there is a great deal of suspicion and distrust existing- among political parties in the House. On the one hand, tho Premier is afraid that his new-found Protectionist allies, if they once got the Tariff through, would leave him high and dry on the Estimates, and, therefore, it ie necessary for him to keep the Protection whip in reserve. The Protectionists, on the other hand, are apprehensive that once he got the Estimates through he would snap his fingers at them as to purely Protective duties, and bring the session to a close with little delay. They are also suspicious as to the reservation of the Civil Service Reform Bill, and they doubt whether he intends at all to bring it down this session. Practically, the Premier says, help me over the Estimates' bridge, and I will help you out of the Tariff wood. THE PREMIER FIRM. There \s likely to bo another tussle over the Estimates on Tuesday, the Premier having intimated that he will go On with them Kospit* tho views of either his old or new allies. In this attitude he is sustained by the local press. There is little doubt that should he again be forced to a division ho will come out victorious, as the Opposition cannot count on theii newiy-found comrades or Friday night. As one Protectionist put it to me, *'I expect the Protectionists will have to eat one end of the leek and the Freetraders the other."

THE PROTECTIONISTS. There was some gossip in the lobby last night over the remarks made by Mr. W. P. j Reeves, namely, that the Premier could scarcely expect fco receive the continued support of tho Protectionists save upon terms, and there was a good deal of conjecture as to whether they referred to the current rumours of reconstruction, the forcing of a member o; tin Opposition into the Cabinet, or to a claim to be considered and consulted in regard to the order of business. In a con vernation with Mr. Reeves he assured me that the use of the word " terms" in his speech was perhaps unhappy, andscarcely expressed the idea running through his mind. What he meant was that the Premier must give and take. As to the conduct of the Protectionists in opposing the Estimates, he explained to me that the Canterbury member?, who had for the last three weeks been absorbed in Tariff matters, had not read a page of the Estimates, and that personally he did not know the Estimates were coming on till the afternoon, some hours before the discussion. Raverting again to the phrase " terms," he assured me thsre was no present intention on the part of tho party either in the direction of reconstruction, at of a want-of-confidence attack. These rumours were simply in the air, at least; for tho present. What might happen after the passage of the Tariff remained to be seen, and no one could confidently predict what might happen. VICTORY OR RESIGNATION. Latest: I am authoritatively informed to-night that the Government intend on Tuesday to bring matters to a plain issue and will not suffer, as on Friday night's division, independent members to coquette with the Opposition. The Premier's political manifesto is a brief one : " He that is not with me is against me." The Estimates will be again made the first business; if the House refuses to go on with them the Ministry will at onco tender their resignation.