THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. MONDAY, DECEMBER 19, 1887.

New Zealand Herald, Volume XXIV, Issue 8929, 19 December 1887, Page 4

THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. MONDAY, DECEMBER 19, 1887.

The warlike utterances of the Invalids Russe respecting the political situation in Europe have, it will be seen, been endorsed by the semi-official organ, the Journal de St. Petersburg. That is to say, the Russian Government have in effect admitted the correctness of the statement that the massing of their troopß on. the Austrian frontier is due to the measures which Germany and Austria are believed to have adopted for the purpose of thwarting and crippling Russia. For that is what the triple alliance denotes to the diplomatists and generals at St. Petersburg and at Moscow. They are of course aware that the policy of this alliance, being a policy of prevention, does not contemplate taking the initiative in any overt act of hostility ; but they conclude, and not without reason, that of all the ways in which a great Power may be baffled and defeated, that of checking her designs and rendering her powerless for action is the most intolerable and humiliating. And this being the purpose of tbe alliance as interpreted by the Italian Prime Minister after his interview with Prince Bismarck, it inevitably begets irritation and antagonism in Russia, and has led to such a disposition of her forces as to render aggressive action possible for her whenever she may deem it necessary. This accounts for the peculiarity of the expression that Russia is in a position to confront with her defensive- measures the entire Peace League, as it is rather ironically . and significantly called by the Invalide Russe. The avowed object of the alliance is to preserve peace by condemning Russia to inaction in the South East of Europe and this is exactly a condition which she is taking measures to make the world see she is determined not to accept. There is no mistaking the meaning of her attitude. The formation of the triple alliance with its declared purpose she regards as a challenge, and her answer thereto is given in the enormous massing of her troops on that part of the frontier which will best facilitate her designs when the hour for action has arrived.

And that her defensive measures, as she rather suggestively calls them, are viewed in this light by the Central Powers of Europe may be inferred from the effects thereby produced on them. The general uneasiness created in Germany and Austria, the depression of the Continental bourses, and the vigorous demands of the Hungarian Press for the adoption of precautionary measures by the Austrian Government for the security of the Empire, all show plainly enough that the massing of troops on the Galician frontier is regarded at Berlin and Vienna as an expression of warlike intention on the part of Russia. Hence some prompt action is urgently required. The triple alliance indeed is in itself a precautionary measure, but the situation has now reached that stage of development which calls for more decisive steps being taken. As preparatory for probable emergencies, Germany has already resolved that her army shall be " immensely increased," by calling out 400,000 of her Landsturm for garrison duty, and thus setting free the active army for the work which, in the event of hostilities, it

would have to perform. Some similar movement Austria also must now recognise as imposed on her. As the cable messages inform us, it was resolved at her first council of war, ■which was summoned to consider the situation, that no immediate action should be taken, as the massing of Russian forces on her frontier had for 'some days been stopped. Now, however, that it has been declared through the Invalide Russe that Russia will continue her defensive measures, the further resolution adopted at that same military conference —that if the massing of troops were resumed " Austria would make active preparations, will no doubt be put in operation. The military conference has again been brought together; and, though nothing is said about what was then done, the silence preserved as to its latest decisions is yet in the circumstances very significant, and any hour may convey the information that the Austrian forces are being mobilised. It is upon the central or Austrian member of the triple alliance that the heaviest part of the conflict must in the first instance fall, should Russia once decide on sending her troops across the frontier ; and it therefore behoves the Government at Vienna to have their forces in readiness, and so disposed as to prevent their border territory being overrun by the Russian armies. If they neglect this, they expose their country to all the deplorable consequences of a formidable invasion. So soon as these precautionary measures are complete, it may be accepted as morally certain that hostilities will not be long in breaking out. On each side there is, of course, an aversion to incurring the odium of commencing the strife. It will be difficult, however, for either party to long restrain the war impulse which is given by the very proximity of hostile armies, and the hour arrives when collision becomes inevitable. Apart from this, the internal condition of Russia is such that, to escape revolution and anarchy, she may be soon obliged to accept the alternative of external war as her only salvation from self-destruction. Having gathered her armies for the purpose of promoting what the Czar once designated "her peaceful development," but which is everywhere understood to be only an euphemism for aggression, she will find it no easy matter to go back. For retreat would denote the omnipotence of what she has somewhat contemptuously called the Peace League, and a retrograde movement would, in the eyes of her own subjects, be worse than an overthrow. But, even were it politic and possible for her to maintain a merely demonstrative attitude, it is certain that the menace which that implies could not be indefinitely tolerated by Austria and Germany. In their own interest these Powers would be compelled to, demand that Russia should either withdraw her forces from the frontier, or accept the responsibility of refusal. It is, in any case, impossible that matters can remain long as they now are, notwithS standing the opinion of the Journal de St. Petersburg to the contrary. While admitting the seriousness of the situation, that organ yet expresses the belief that peace is long assured by the good relations existing between Russia and her neighbours. But, as a rule, war is never so near as when peace is being everywhere confidently asserted. The visits and interviews of Emperors and Princes and statesmen go for very little while nations are armed to the teeth, and stand in readiness to fly at each other's throats, and it must not be forgotten that, as in other concerns, so in war, and in war especially, it is the unexpected that happens.