THE New Zealand Herald. AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. TUESDAY, JANUARY 4, 1887.

New Zealand Herald, Volume XXIV, Issue 7836, 4 January 1887, Page 4

THE New Zealand Herald. AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. TUESDAY, JANUARY 4, 1887.

Reports about the expected war and alliances between the different Governments are so fluctuating and contradictory, that no credence can be given to them. Whenever trouble of the kiind is expected such rumours and statements are always flying about. But what really presents a prospect of hostilities, is the character of the preparation. Such preparation has been going on over the European Continent for the last fourteen or fifteen years, but it is now pervading the little States as well as the great, and not only are the local arsenals and cannon foundries busy, but enormous purchases of artillery and the new repeating rifles,. are being made abroad. They say, in the United States, that the orders received by their manufacturers are on an. altogether unprecedented scale. Then there is the mobilising of armies, for it is asserted that Russia is assembling 300,000 men at Kieff, and elsewhere in her southern provinces, despite , the winter season, and we are told that Austro-Hungary is doing the. same thing; and that to co-operate with the Hungarian forces, several corps drawn from the other paris of the empire are to be at once encamped in Transylvania. But winter is so severe in the Balkan quarter, as well as over eastern and central Europe, that if war is to occur it is not likely, to break out for a couple of months yet, unless, indeed, somebody should see his way for a coup de main.

Russia is not a compact empire, but of late years she has been railwaymaking, and German authorities are said to believe that she could rapidly concentrate a million of men on her western frontier. Both Germany and France are compact countries; that is, have very perfect railway systems, and doubtless this is now also the case with Austria. They can move their armies about with a facility, wholly unknown in past times. Further improvements are made in this way every year, and we know that in 1870 Germany was able to put 600,000 men across her frontier in eleven days. Will the war be therefore short as well as sharp? Who can foresee? The railway may facilitate decisive strokes; but where whole populations have been trained to arms, as is now so much the rule, resistance would not be easily quelled. For instance, the war of 1870-1 was ( really decided in a month, but it lasted for some fifteen months, although the French population was then under an incomplete conscription, much less , ■ generally trained than it is now. No ; what; would most likely make a war brief at the present time would be the sudden presentation of some terrible raeanß of destruction possessed by one side and not by the other, i or instance, in 1866, the novel presentation of the needle gun decided the conflict in seven weeksover the same ground, where, in the last century, the war between the same Powers Prussia and Austria—occupied seven years, and there is yet no knowing what secrets of destruction any particular Government may possess. Each of the principle ones* is credited with secrets in this way. We have had very positive reports of alliances, but it is doubtful if : the Governments themselves are. sure on the point. Indeed, the peace has been kept so long, simply because in the clashing of interests they are distrustful of each other all round. Under the frightful burden of the present rigorous conscription and consequent taxation there is profound discontent in Germany and Italy ; it is endured in France because regarded • as only temporary, a means to an end not far off; it is a prime cause of the growth of Socialism, of which they complain in St. Petersburg and in Vienna, . in Republican Paris and in Monarchical

Berlin. .Would not the various Governments concerned have brought things; to an issue long since—have fought the quarrel out and got the war over, if it were not that they don't .know who; would be allies or jpflo enemies I Everybody that France and Germany. 50U fight again , about, Alsagty iud that Russia and Austria Jiff come to blows for supremacy in, the Balkan region 4 , but such conflicts would only start an extended war, in which, by the requirements of the balance of power, the allies at the commencement might be adversaries at the

close., • If there be war it may, by present appearances, begin in the Balkan quarter-jralthongh the German .Chancellor, if he think the time opportune for the conflict with France, may any moment provoke her, as in 1870, to take the initiative. Indeed there is something $ this complexion in the. .curious report brought by telegraph f that the King of the Belgians has consented to enter the German Confederation, **a • thing to ■ which his subjects would not agree pverx if it were true that he is willing. As to the outbreak of hostilities between Austria and Russia, we may here remark that the former Power is in'"a very different condition from what ghe was some years ago. Muscovite statesmen, when ' they called Turkey " The Sick Man," used to sneer at Austria as " The Sick Woman !" But the late Oouht - Beust put the empire of the Hapsburgs on its feet, by not only reconciling the quarrel with Hungary, but by also giving the Sclavic provinces local, government. This step- has saved the Austrian Empire from dismemberment some day by the action of Russia as head of the Sclavic race, for it has placed her Sclavic populations in most favourable contrast to those of Russia.. The fact that those of Austria are now self-governing, have freer institutions and local independence, while Russia's are ruled by an iron despotism wielded by a corrupt bureaucracy, must be of immense,.consequence to the former in any struggle with a rival, inasmuch ; as most populations of Eastern Europe belong to this stock. It is said that in preparation for the expected war, the States of Roumania, Servia, and Bulgaria, are ready to bring into the field between them no less than 400,000 men, while the little mountain principality of Montenegro can call out 35,000 3 and we must recollect that of these four States, now free but formerly within the bounds of Turkey, all except the first-named are inhabited by the Sclavic race. While Russia has insulted those people by her arbitrary attempt to annex Bulgaria, the Austrian Empire, if there be war now, ought to feel the benefit of the free institutions she has ; given their Kinsmen. ■