FORECASTING THE WEATHER

Nelson Evening Mail, Volume LXXIII, 30 December 1940, Page 7

FORECASTING THE WEATHER

RESEARCH IN U.S.A. VALUE IN COMMERCIAL FLYING One of the reasons for the success of the safety campaign of the United States commercial air lines was the remarkably efficient work of its weather bureau says a writer in the Melbourne “Age.” The bureau uses what has come to be known as air-mass analysis —a method of studying the atmosphere as a three-dimensional body and evaluating surface conditions as manifestations of conditions in the upper air. This concept was rationalised by a group of Norwegian physicists led by Vilhelm Bjerknes and his son Jacob. In order to learn about the upper air a new type of instrument had to be invented—one that could be sent up in the masses. At first, kites were tried, but were found unsatisfactory, and instruments sent up in balloons were not always found when the balloon landed. Aero planes also were used, but this method had its limitations because the planes could not go aloft in bad weather. Eventually the radio meteorograph was devised. This instrument, carried by balloon, transmits its atmospheric readings while in flight. Even if it is lost it has already performed its function through its transmissions. The radio meteorograph (or radiosone) weighs about two pounds. It contains a tiny radio transmitter and battery, and three ingenious devices for changing the transmitter’s continuous signal with each change of pressure, temperature and humidity. Lifted by a hydrogen balloon, the radiosone (which costs a little over £7) ascends sometimes ten or eleven miles until the balloon bursts and the instrument parachute descends. Sometimes the instrument is recovered, but. whether or no, its signals have been automatically received at the ground station as ink marks on a roll of paper. From these readings, plus surface observations, the air-mass meteorologist builds up a three-dimensional map. This atmospheric map not only shows the high-and-low pressure system. but the interacting masses and fronts that account for them. He can tell whether a mass of air is moist below and dry above and consequently no great rain maker. He can tell by the steepness of a cold mass when violent storms may occur. He can send out such messages as this to aircraft. “Warm moist air to south and west overrunning cold surface air to north and east will advance slowly north and eastward carrying scattered to broken clouds with ceiling 8000 feet ahead of it and overcast 5000 feet or more in few mild thunder showers.” At present the commercial airlines weather service is much better than that furnished by the United States Government Bureau. There are, at present, thirteen airways’ centres and at each the meteorologist, working from the airway’s teletype data, builds up a map detailing the flying weather in his section of the country. These maps are teletyped from one district to others and also broadcast to planes in the air. Each forecast is for the following eight hours. Four maps a day are the minimum, but the teletype conveys hourly readings and if the weather is uncertain maps may be made every three hours. These forecasts are highly detailed, much more specific than general forecasts, and, best of all. highly accurate and dependable. While the United Slates Government Bureau is staffed principally by older men the bureau maintained by the airlines consists wholly of young men ! schooled from the start ” in air-mass inalysis. | LONG-RANGE FORECASTING In the matter of long-range weather forecasting, American agriculture and industry is being helped greatly by the work of 34-year-old Professor Irving P. Krick, of the Californian Institute ol Technology at Pasadena. This young graduate of the University of California teaches meteorology at Caltech and at the same time is continually working on his plan to predict the weather for the United States a whole month in advance. By means of teletypes 'he and his assistants receive reports continuously and make maps for the whole of the United States and Canada. His teletypes bring him all the specialised American weather reports that can be gathered. These include radiosone reports from the upper air and measurements of great masses of air moving over the North American continent. From 30 stations radiosones are sent aloft daily and from their transmissions Dr Krick pieces together a map of the nation's atmospheric conditions. At times his charts show warm moist air piled up to an altitude of seven miles, thus covering the cold polar air. Where they meet rain forms and is turned into ice at sub-freez-ing ground-level temperature. At such times Dr Krick sends out warnings to his customers such as this telegraphed to a firm in Detroit Power Corporation—“ Advance supplementary repair crews stand by at 6 a.m. .. . your time for high winds and glaze ice over your south-west-ern district.” Two days before the disastrous Los Angeles flood of 1938 Dr Krick told the flood control experts of the district that a storm of abnormal proportions would take place. He also notified Los Angeles utility companies to fill their great storage tanks to capacity as there was a possibility that their supply lines from their distant fields might be swept away by the storm. His short-range service is a highly particularised forecast to suit the needs of industrial clients. These include movie studios, utility companies, aircraft manufacturers (for scheduled test flights), California highway department and many othei organisations who pay up to £IOO a month. He also sells weekly and monthly reports and bases these on | the average boundaries (between tropical and polar air masses) in the atmosphere over a period of a month or more. Although they have a splendid weather bureau of their own the Commercial airlines frequently consult Dr Krick and his services are much in demand by motion picture industry. At times scenes are rqade away from the studios in Hollywood in the desert country or in the mountains. Should a company be taken out on location and run into bad weather a of hundreds of thousands of dollars could easily result. This happened so many times in the past that when the movie industry heard of the success of Dr ! Krick they eagerly sought his ser- | vices. During a test period he scored I higher than 90 per cent, in the fore- i casts he issued. Production costs 1 run high and instead of telling their i company to report at any definite j time the movie officials consulted Dr Krick to see at what time the fog would lift and the weather be clear { enough for the taking of scenes, j Film producers estimate that in the j last twelve months the weather fore- I cast service furnished them by Dr

Krick has resulted in a saving of [several million dollars by preventing costly losses that would surely have resulted had they persisted in their own schedule.