TOLL OF THE WAR

Nelson Evening Mail, Volume L, Issue 175, 29 October 1917, Page 3

TOLL OF THE WAR

FRENCH AND GERMAN- LOSSES

HEAVY FALL IN 'BIRTHS

(From the Daily Telegraph.)

Heavy as is the toll of life exacted from the belligerent nations on the battlefields, it : by no means represents the full loss of population directly due to the war. Of no less importance is the adverse effect on the birth-rate, while a further factor which has to be reckoned with is the strain imposed by war conditions on the health of the natiou as a whole. So far as France and Germany are concerned., the position is thoroughly explored in a monograph recently issued T>y the Danish Society for the Study of "the Social Consequences of the War. The conclusions arrived at as to the effects on the size and composition of the populations of the two countries aTe based on official figures covering the first two years- of hostilities, and from these and other sources th e investigators have been able to compile estimates for the whole of the three years, which they claim to .be approximated accurate. The broad results of the computation for the latter period are:—

Trance. Germany.. Total loss of population 2.200..000 3,700,000 In the case of German}-, it is noted that the highest point reached by the birth-rate was in 1876, when the figure was 40.9 per thousand. In 1913 the Tate had fallen to 27.5. Shortly stated, the position before the outbreak of war was that a comparatively great decrease in the birth-rate was made good by a still greater decline in the death-rate, with the Tesult that the population showed an annual increase of about 800.000. Incidentally, it is mentioned that, at the census of December, 1910, the Dumber of Germans liable to military service—ages 17 to 45—was i0,483.C00. or 42 per cent, of the male ■ population. Of 11,608,028 married men, 6,726,403 were of military age. Comin? to the war period, it is pointed out that the fall in the birtbrate only became apparent towards the middle of 1915. Taking the whole* of the latter year, of which only eight months were affected by the war, the decline in the birth-rate was. for towns witn more than 15,000 inhabitants:, 21.2 ;per cent., arid for Germany, as a whole, 23 per cent. It is shown that, up to the end of 1916 the increase of deaths of persons older than one >"ear over what would have occurred under peace conditions amounted to 1,157,000, the majority, over 1,000,000, certainly 'being direct war losses. j 1,872,000 FEWER CHILDREN. ■But the loss through the reduction in the birth-rate was even. greater, about 1,177,000 fewer children having been born. Moreover, the actual difference is larger, since the influence of the war on the 'birth-rate was not felt for the first nine months. "The real loss of births in the 29 war months amounted, during the first year, to 36 per cent., during the second year to 45 per cent., and during the further five months, according to estimates, to about 50 per cent. That makes a total of 1,872.460. Thus the actual loss of population until the end of 1916 amounts to almost 2,900.000." Taking the full three years of war— August, 1914, to August, 1917 —the investigators calculate that the aggregate loss of life in Germany will amount, in round figures, to 3,703,000, arrived at as follows : Increase of mortality with persons older than 1 year 1,436,000 Decrease of infantile mortality 225,000 Increase of total mortality 1,211.000 Decrease of birth-rate 2,482,000 Total loss of population 3,693,000 Thus, while under normal conditions the population of Germany within the last three years should have increased from 67,800,000 to about 70,200,000, owing to the war it will have decreased to •about 66,500,000. Yet these simple figures do not give any real picture of the importance of the loss sustained. To.- more important than the decrease of population is the complete confusion in the age-group distribution of the population and the fundamental disarrangement in the numerical proportion of the sexes. According to conditions previous to the war there should be a'bout 32,800.000 males and 33,700.000 females. In reality, however, there will be about 32,100.000 males and 34,400,000 females. After three years of war the proportion of men to women will be about IGOO to 1100. As regards the population of marriageable age, the preponderance of women will be much greater, since the calculation takes no account of the immense number of disabled men. In short, millions of women, after the ■>"ar, will find no possibility of marrying. _'rom the table given above it will be seen that a decrease is recorded in infantile mortality. The improvement shown in 1915 and 1916, despite the scarcity of milk and the increase in the number of employed women, is attributed mainly to better official and private care, which has been facilitated "by the fall in the birth-rate. At all ages over one year a considerable increase in mortality is recorded among ' the civil population, notably from such diseases as tuberculosis and typhus. FRANCE'S SACRIFICES. In the case of Franrr. the available data is more meagre. Figures extending nearly to the end of 1916 have been obtained for Paris and about a dozen towns, and official statistics for

the -whole country (except the occupied departments) down to the end of the first half of 1915. Hence the calculations are more speculative than an the case of Germany. The investigators had previously estimated the French war losses for two years at 885..000 men although Professor Charles Giae puts the total at about 1,000.000. Assuming that in the third year of the war the deatVs have been on the same scale, from 440,000 to 550,000 would have to be added, including, however, a considerable number of Colonial troops. _ As the result of these losses it is calculated that in the age groups 19-49 the preponderance of women after the war will have risen from 150,689 to nearly 1,500,000. In other words, the proportion of males to females at these ages, formerly 1000 to 1018, will be 1000 to 1202. Moreover, this calculation leaves out of account the hundreds of thousands of disabled men. To the direct war losses has to be added the loss of population due to the decline in the 'birth-rate. Before the war the situation was already serious, and 'it is r>»w aggravated by the fact that ten departments with relatively high birth-rates are in the occupation of the er.emy. In the 77 remaining departments the number of children born alive in 1913 amounted to 604,454, in 1914 to 594,222; the decrease was therefore 1.7 per cent. For the first six months of 1915, as compared with the first six months of 1913, a decrease of 19.4 per cent, has to be registered. Th« net result of the -decline, combined with increased" mortality among the civil population, is that for the first year of war (apart from losses in the field') deaths exceeded births of 143.229. Th e position is graphically illustrated by the following table, showing the numbers of departments having a "surplus of births" or a "surplus of deaths" respectively in the years named : I>epts. with (Depts. with birth surplus, deaths surplus-. 1912 47 30. 1913 40- .- 37 1914 26 61 1915 (first half) 2 75 Thus, "already at the conclusion of rthe first year of the war only two departments of the whole of France -were lef.t in which the living vitality of the yaeople was stronger than the power of the forces of extermination, and even in these districts this vital power had, a hard struggle with the supremacy of ■death, as is apparent from the absolute figures. In Corse in the first half of the year 1915 2982 births, and 2462 deaths were registered.. In Finistere the figures were respectively ©371 and 9158. In Corse the difference amounted to 52U, and, in Finistere to .213, giving a total of only 733."