Nelson Evening Mail. MONDAY AUGUST 17, 1914. GERMANY AND THE SEA.

Nelson Evening Mail, Volume XLVIII, Issue XLVIII, 17 August 1914, Page 4

Nelson Evening Mail. MONDAY AUGUST 17, 1914. GERMANY AND THE SEA.

TN view of what has already taken place in connection with the present war, the following forecast made by a leading German (Admiral Breusing), as recently as December last, will be read with very great interest. In speaking of what is termed his "favourite theme," the world war, he said :—"No person of insight can fail to see that a world war is threatened by France, who feels that her armaments are now equal to the German. After the introduction of the three-year teim of service, the French Army will number 850,000, the German Army only 820,000 men, so that we shall be compelled to take further steps." Of course, these figures arc misleading, and it must be remembered that the three years' service in France was the French response to increased German activity. According to Admiral Breusing, England is. responsible for France's burden of

war. "Thrice within recent years has England offered to support France in a war against Germany." This is a unique way of putting Britain's intervention (dealt with in these columns on Friday last) to prevent Germany falling upon France. He asks why England intervened? "Simply because she desires unlimited power, and because, she wishes to dictate to us." Then he goes on to say: "If, in the near future, we go to war with France, we shall find England against us, because the German fleet stands in the way of British autocracy." "Have Ave," he asks, "any cause to view with misgiving a naval war against

finglsrnd?" In discussing what form i such a campaign" would take, be has, as ] far as is known, given a correct forecast, although in one respect, which may be vital, matters have not\gone as he an-

J ticipated. In former times, ho explains, the English favoured the very simple plan ot steaming straight across to the German : river estuaries, bombarding everything that got in their way, and destroying the Kaiser Wilhelm Canal. This plan had to be given up when the fleet and coast defences were strengthened, and a close j- blockade was projected instead. As a suitable point d'appui for this operation the English had their cj-cs on Borkum ! and Ems, but when this district was? equipped with strong fortifications, and

thus secured against sudden seizure, they

had to resort to another alternative. This was to seal up the entire North yea. between- two mighty blockading lines. The dispatchoovaf v a battle cruiser to the Mediterranean, he says, spoilt this plan ■too. But this vessel is the Goeben,

! which now flies the Turkish flag. The menace of the German crusier, he felt sure, I had brought the scheme of a close blockI ade to the fore again. Rightly, he said, I that to stop these ships 'breaking through ' is' an important matter. England musl I crush the German fleet at the very beginning of the war. The German fleet, ' he said, would avoid an engagement in the opening stages, but would edeavour to weaken the English force by submarine ( and torpedo attacks. But this Germany will find a very difficult task in so wide an area as the North Sea. Admiral Breusing also says that Germany's light cruisers must be sent ,-to the Atlantic to interrupt the English food supplies. But Britain has been too quick for the Germans, and the blockading process has completely sealed down most of the German cruisers. Those supplies which come through the Mediterranean will be held up by Germany's allies, he said, while further East they wall be harrassed by Germany's Asiatic cruiser squadron. But the neutrality of Italy has left Britain and France unquestioned masters of the Mediterranean. Germany has been counting upon giving Britain a great deal of trouble in all parts of the world, thereby necessitating her reducing the ' strength of the North Sea Fleet. But, fortunately, events have not followed the course anticipated by Germany. The German plan, which has evidently been put into operatiun as far as possible, is clearly stated in the following sentences : —Eventually the continued enfeeblement of 'the English force (which is nut taking place), will bring a time when its superiority is no longer crushing. It .is then that the decisive action will bo fought. The German fleet will pick its way through the mine fields and open fire at long range. The guns will come into play first; but later on the torpedoes will take- a hand Our fast cruiser squadron will now enter the fray and out-flank the enemy's ships. • . . Even if she won, England would he unable to face another great sea Power. .She might blockade us; but does that mean that we are finished? It would now be the turn of our allies to do their part." But, unfortunately for Germany, Italy has upset the apple cart, and there is no question about the superiority of the Entente in the Mediterranean. '"The Italian troops from Tunis (sic) will march against Egypt, and thus attack one of the most sensitive points of British power." Will they? If they march at oil, (hero, is every indication, that they will march against the Germans.