The Nelson Evening Mail. WEDNESDAY APRIL 27, 1808.

Nelson Evening Mail, Volume XXXII, Issue 92, 27 April 1898, Page 2

The Nelson Evening Mail. WEDNESDAY APRIL 27, 1808.

Is consequence of the outbreak of war between America and Spain, there are naturally much anxiety and uncertainty in business oircles in respect to the effect on the com' merca of this colony. Already there haro been Bomewhat large speculative purchases of kerosene, ihongh it is obvious to any one who notes the arrivals and expected arrivals of si: ipments that there is enough now on the market and about to enter it aafelr to keep up stocks ,for 12 months at least, by which time it is hoped the war will bo over. Furthermore, exclusively of shipments to New Zealand, advices of February and , March sailings for Melbonrne alone, to suy nothing of the direct sail^ ings for Byduey and Adelaide,' give 174,150 cases. The shipments for the same period for the other colonies were .—Bydney, 157,300 cases ; Brisbane, 71,000 ; North Queensland, 23,500 ; Adelaide, 25,000; W<Bt Australia, 20,260; total, 471,700 cases, exclusively of New Zealand. In this colony the Mary Easbronck has brought 6700 cases., and the Evio Reed has come in with 10,500 oases, while ihe J. 8, Emery left left New York on 12th March with 16,000 oases. Thus there should be plenty of kerosene 1 for a considerable time, presuming even a Btoppoge of further Amerioan supplies till the war is over ; and hence if our grocer puts np the price on the retail sales, he will be doing so with a view to his own profit rather than because there is any necessity for the rise. In regard to shipments made during the war, there will oi coarse be an advanoe on insurance rates and freight, and even if there be no aotual risk it will be hard to get vessels to trade her 9. But the shipments of keroaene already on tbe spot or on their waj should bo sufficient for ordinary requirements for several months to come. For these reusonu any material advance on the retail price i? cot anticipated, j A leadinf? Wellington rn.erob.ant, in an interview with a newspaper man, said he did not see why the prices of American goods in New Zealand should be increased to any appreciable extent by the war aa most of the vessels trading to this colony, and ifl fact to Australia are on the British register*. Especially is this the case beoanse in ordina^ times no ship not built on American soil can bs registered in the United Stateß. Bat it must be borne in naiod that eves neutral vessels will

have (o incur some risks, of delay', of searoh, probably of stray shots ; find of course of high prices and the natural desire to m..ke the most of a condition of war to charge as much as consignees and consignors are willing to pay. There ia also the question of the Declaration of Paris, to which neither Spain nor America is a signatory. Jt is true that both countries have made a oort of promise that they will viriually adhere to the rules of modern warfare at sea as well as on land ; but such a compact, whether expressed or implied) may be broken at a moment's notice, in which caso neutral goods and neutral vessels will be in jeopardy alke. It is expected that there will be a hardening in the market for each American articles as agricultural implements, barbed wire, ' resin, turpentine, timber (Oregon pine), and paper. In regard to the last article, many of the largest journals of the colony get their paper from New York, and there are cortain to be delays and hitches in arrivals, if no worse. Other newspapers get their paper from San Francisco mills, and as San Francisco is out of the line of privateers and remote from the seat of war, the export paper trade of the Golden Grate should receive a considerable impetus. The cost . of Now York paper transmitted across tho Rockies for shipment from San Francisco would be so great as to considerably restrict the trade with these colonies. Of late a considerable commerce has sprung up with Aruerioa in steel rails and iron pipes, and this also will be now restricted ; while it has beea already explained that there is likely to be a very considerable *• corner " in tobacco, cigars, and cigarettes, Speaking generally, if the war lasts any time New Zealand commerce with America will assuredly feel the stress, and consumers may have "to pay higher prices for many things which are in daily use, such as canned fruits and fish, brooms, patent medicines, hardware, etc. The effect of war will also be felt by our export trade with tho States. The Auckland "Star" points out that the good price ruling for kanri gum has been due almost entirely to the American demand. Vessels coming to Auckland with American goods take kauri gum-as a return cargo for the Now York var- 1 nish makers. The war must necessarily interfere with the trade, for though the gum may be taken to New York in British boats it is a roundabout and costly route. On the other hand, the war will enaure a oomplete cessation of the export of Manila gum to New York— that is to say, if America does not quickly seize the Philippio.es — for Manila ia a Spanish possession. The pries of Manila gum in America is about £40 a ton, and it competes to a certain extent with kauri ; but kauri has always held its own for the finer varnishes. Any wsy, the suspension of the importation of Manila gum into New York would send up the value of kauii very considerably, so id is just possible that it might pny to send the Auckland product evon by way of London. It may be assumed that prices will go up, because, oven if the war has little or no effect on merchant disc or transport, traders will take advantage of existing conditions to make more money. Exclusively of the increases in freight and insurance, real or imaginary difficulty of supply will foster demand, and already American current) quotatious are suspended in order to prepare for the rise. At both ends every point in the game "will be scored to win, and the consumer will be "between the dovil and the deep sea." Thns, at ihe very beginning, one of the disadvantages of a great war will be felt by those who have to maintain themselves and their families on incomes which, if they be not reduced by the quarrels of nations, are certainly not increased thereby.