Course Of The War?

Northern Advocate, 22 February 1940, Page 4

Course Of The War?

WITH the coming of spring, it is expected that there will begin momentous movements by the armies which have been manoeuvring for position during the winter. Just what the movements will be nobody seems prepared to predict, though there is a large body of opinion that the south-east of Europe will be the scene of what may well prove decisive operations. Should Germany move to the south-west, she will find the Allies well prepared. That is clear from reports of troop dispositions. Britain and France, it is believed, have a large army ready for despatch to any quarter where they may be required in the Middle East. It is also clear that Balkan Powers are on the alert, and that they and Britain and France are working with a common end in view. Just now Turkey has directed attention to herself by a decision to invoke the national defence law authorised by Parliament on January 18. According to a cable message from Ankara, the application of this law is interpreted to mean that Turkey feels that she is, or the Allies are, threatened in the Balkans or the Middle East. The Government’s decision caused surprise, and some alarm, because it was not expected so soon, and the press mouthpiece of the .People’s Party has warned its readers that the coming spring will bring a bitter struggle, though its successful outcome is certain. In view of Turkey’s action in taking time by the forelock, the pacts into which that country entered with Britain and France on October 19 of last year assume real significance. The pacts contain a definite pledge by Turkey that she will come to the assistance of the Allies if they fulfil their obligations to Rumania to protect her against aggression. The British and French Governments agree to come to the aid of Turkey if an act of aggression is committed against Turkey by a European Power, and in the event of an act of aggression by a European Power leading to war in the Mediterranean area im which Turkey is concerned.

The Turkish Government agrees to come to the aid of the British and French Governments in the event of an act of aggression by a European Power leading to war in the Mediterranean area in which Britain and France are engaged in hostilities by virtue of either of their guarantees to Greece or Rumania on April 13, 1939. If Turkey is not obliged, under the pacts, to give assistance, she will at least observe benevolent neutrality to Britain and France. One aspect of the pacts which is not as satisfactory as the Allies might wish, in view of the alliance that has been effected between Germany and Russia, is that, in the event of Russia being engaged in a European war, Turkey shall not be compelled to take action if such action involves war with Russia. ' It may be taken for granted, however, that Turkey will be guided by circumstances so far as her attitude to Russia is concerned. It is difficult to see how she will be able to dissociate Russia from Germany if those nations present a common front in the Balkans or the Middle East. Time will show. In the meantime Turkey is making ready for eventualities.