The Northern Advocate Dally BRITISH ELECTIONS

Northern Advocate, 21 October 1935, Page 4

The Northern Advocate Dally

BRITISH ELECTIONS

Registered fdr transmission through the post as a Newspaper.

MONDAY, OCTOBER 21, 1955.

The people of Britain and the people of New Zealand have mutual ground for complaint that they are being’ subjected to undue uncertainty regarding the dates- of the general elections. The Governments in both countries should haye announced their intentions ere this. It now appears almost certaiif that the British elections will take place on November 14, Mr Baldwin, the Prime Minister, having made a statement from which that date has been adduced. That a state of national emergency will be urged by the Government in support of its appeal to the country is to be gathered from Mr Baldwin’s words. There has been strong protest against the proposal of the Government to spring an election upon the country in a time of stress consequent upon the international situation, but it is evident that the Government, has made its decision and intends to adhere to it. It is interesting, therefore, to note that Professor Ramsay Muir, who is president of the National Libera] Federation, discusses in the “Nineteenth Century” for September a suggestion that the Government would go to the country in November. He ana lyses the elections and by-elec-tions which have been held in Britain since 1922 and expresses the opinion that on this occasion the Conservatives will remain the governing party, though with a reduced majority. The professor says that the elections held in 1922, 1923 and 1929 were normal

ejections and those held in 1924 and 1931, were of a panic nature. In 1924 the “Zinovieff letter,” since admitted to be a fake, proved fatal to the Labour Government, while in 1931 the financial crisis was the deciding factor. Professor Muir, after examining the representation of the parties, shows that throughout the series of elections the Conseiwatives have invariably been the strongest single party, with a vote (exclusive of panic elections) of about 38 per cent, of the votes cast and 25 to 30 per cent, of the total electorate. He estimates the normal poll of the Labour Party at about 33 per cent, of the votes east and 20 to 25 per cent, of the electorate. The Liberals’ strength is given as 23 per cent, of the votes east in 1929, when they fought as many seats as the other parties. Professor Muir believes that the Conservatives can rely on the steady loyalty of a little more than a quarter of the electorate and the Labour Party on slightly less than a quarter. He sets down the depend* able Liberal strength at 4,000,O'OO voters, Conservative at 8,000„ 000, and Labour at 7,000,000, which leaves him a residue of about 12.000,000 4 4 waverers, ’ ’ many of whom are susceptible to all sorts of influences. Professor Muir holds, : as a result of bis examination ,of the by-elections, that both the Conservatives and Labour have lost some ground, so far as the proportion of the electorate, on whose support they can rely is concerned, but that the Conservative loss is not so great as that of Labour. He declares that the result of the elections will dependupon the course followed by the Liberals, a large section of whom resent their disfranchisement under the present electoral system. While predicting a Conservative victory in November, he says that 4 4 the pendulum will continue to swing, ‘as always, against the Government in power; and, since a small shift of votes, under our electoral system, can produce quite disproportionate results, the Labour Party will gain a solid majority at the following election,' unless the Liberal Party regains strength and the electoral system is reformed;” This prediction, in the face of existing conditions in respect of the New Zealand elections, is decidedly, interesting.