CLEAR MAJORITY FOR REFORM.

Northern Advocate, 19 December 1911, Page 5

CLEAR MAJORITY FOR REFORM.

WITH ALL CONTINGENCIES

ALLOWED.

Though there may be room for disputation on some points as the result of the elections just concluded, there can be no doubt on the main issue whatever, and no question, after making all possible allowances, that the Reform party has a clear majority of three, and probably more, in the whole House of Representatives. THE WARD PARTY. The Government has 32 pledged supporters, and in addition can rely on Mr Isitt (1)—33 straight-out supporters. It claims to have the support of Messrs Rhodes and Coates, Independents. Mr Coates has distinctly stated that he will not support the Government unless it has a majority, and Mr Rhodtes has declared his independence of Ministerial control. Mr Atmore, the fourth Independent, claims independence on any "abstract issue," but is pledged to vote against the Government on its land policy.

Mr Hindmarsh (Labor) has been careful not to commit himself either way.

Granting, however, these four "doubtfuls" —Messrs Rhodes, Coates, Atmore, and Hindmarsh, the Government strength mounts up to 37.

One of the three Maori members to be elected to-day will ceriamiy ieceive a post in the new Government in connection with Native affairs, leaving two for the Ward side —39.

THE MASSEY PARTY. Straight-out Reform votes number 37.

Three Labor members—Messrs Veitch, Payne, and Robertson —are pledged to vote against the Government—Massey votes 40.

One Native member in office in the new Administration brings the Massey vote to 41.

Thus, on a no-confidence motion, the very best the Ward Government could hope for would be as follows: —

Government Reform Party Pledged votes 33 Reform votes 37 Doubtful votes 4 Labor vctes 3 Native votes 2 Native votes 1 39 41 Less Speaker 1 ! 38 Majority Against Government, 3 This places the position at its best from the Government's point of view. As a matter of fact, it is much more likely that some of the doubtful, or Native votesj which are credited above to the Government, will go to the Reform party and that on a no-con-fidence motion the Government will be in a minority of 7or 9. In these circumstar :es the only courses open to Sir Joseph Ward are either to. at once tender his resignation, t to advise his Excellency the Governor to summon Parliament to meet in January. The fact cannot be over.v ked that whereas the Reform party is a strong and united party ,the Ministerialists are demoralised and some of their members are held to it by the slenderest of ties.

The position of the Ward Government is hopeless. The Continuous Ministry has had a long innings and as is usually the case where Governments live over-long it has ended badly. It remains to be seen whether Sir Joseph Ward will rise to the occasion and depart from office with dignity and a proper measure of regard for the responsibilities resting on him as leader of his party; or whether he will prefer to cling on till the last possible moment by such shifts and devices as may present themselves and by so doing drag his party *:nd those associated with it into public contempt for all time. All oyer the country the Ministerialist journals are calling on him to acknowledge the defeat which the electors have placed upon him and his Government. He is perhaps entitled to wait for the return of the Native seats to-day, but after they come to hand there will no longer be any excuse for further delay on his part in either sending in his resignation or advising his Excellency to summon Parliament to sit at the earliest convenient moment.