The Times SATURDAY, MARCH 6, 1943. Can Labour Lose The Election?

Manawatu Times, Volume 68, Issue 55, 6 March 1943, Page 4

The Times SATURDAY, MARCH 6, 1943. Can Labour Lose The Election?

Whilst almost everybody feels that New Zealand has now been secured against danger from any foreign foe, there are many who fear for the future of New Zealand after victory has been won. They fear that this land might be subjected to a political dominatjon that runs counter to their ideals of democratic freedom. It is believed probable that more than half the population so fear. Hence it is that the prospects of the coming election loom largely in thought and conversation throughout the Dominion. In the viewpoint of those opposing the Government of the day, there is speculation as to the possibility of changing it, whilst supporters of that Government give thought to the possibilities of again securing- power. So do the thoughts of both sides centre upon the question, can Labour lose the election?

At the last election four and a-half years ago in the halcyon days of peace, there was a record polling with 946,000 valid votes east. Of these Labour secured 528,000 and the Nationalists 381,000. Votes for Independents and others totalled 37,000. There were 7000 informal votes. The Government gained a majority of 147,200 votes over the Opposition, this in a total poll of 946,000. Should one voter in thirteen change his allegiance at the next election the position of the two major parties would be reversed. For if just over one half of 147,000 votes were cast the other way, i.e. 73,600, then would the Nationalists have majority support. Overall figures, however, fail to tell very clearly what are the prospects for a change of Government. They do serve, of course, to sho-w the extent of change required. Then arises the question of whether or not the two major parties will dominate the stage. There has been some scattered talk of a new party to replace the National one, and Mr. J. A. Lee suggests that he could provide a new party to supplant officiai Labour. And then there is always a possibility of a considerable body of independents coming forward. The prophecy is made that independents will be of as little account at this election as they were in 1938; that there is no practical possibility of any newly created party to seriously worry the Opposition and that Mr. J. A. Lee’s party has, at this election, small prospect of gaining more than four or five seats (including two already held). This “revolt” may, however, considerably embarrass the Government machine.

The present strength of the two parties in the House to-day is 54 Labour and 26 Nationalists. This allocates one Independent for each side. There is a difference of 28 members, which means that if the Government lost 15 members and the Opposition gained the same, then there would be a change of Government. An analysis of the returns at the 1938 contest, made electorate by electorate, shows that there are 21 doubtfully held Labour seats. With but a five per cent, change-over in public opinion, i.e., should one person in 20 vote National instead of Labour, then will the Government lose 10 seats. And on alO per cent, change-over it would lose 21 seats. How weakly held some of these seats are may be realised from the citation of a few examples. The loss of one vote in 115 would lose the Government Masterton. The loss of one in 90 would lose the Bay of Islands. The loss of one vote in 50 would lose New Plymouth. The loss of one in 40 would lose Marsden (and the ministership of Mr. J. G. Barclay, of Marketing Department fame). Even in the larger cities, Labour is not entirely safe. Wellington West could be. lost were one voter in 27 to change allegiance. In the case of Eden and Roskill, one vote in 12 could change the party’s strength. The case of Palmerston North is naturally of particular interest. At the last election Labour won the seat with a 1960 majority on a 13,000 polling. That looks a big majority but the change-over of only one in 13 voters would lose the Government this seat. When the array is so closely examined, it is obvious that Labour’s big battalions are very much weaker than appears at a distance. All political history shows consistent ebbs and tides in favour of great parties. At Home, in the long drawn battle of Whigs versus Tories, Liberals versus Conservatives, which has gradually emerged as Labour versus Conservative of this age, popular favour lias been accorded first to one side and then to the other. Never again could the Labour Party achieve such popularity in New Zealand as that awarded in 1938. By the very natural order of things it must poll now a reduced vote. And surely that decline must be made the greater through public dissatisfaction at a great deal of mal-administration shown on the part of the Government both before and since the war began. Should these two influences result in a change of opinion on the part of but one voter in 13, then there will certainly ensue a change of Government. Nationalists have every reason for optimism.