TUESDAY, JULY 11, 1939. Economic Conditions and War

Manawatu Times, Volume 64, Issue 161, 11 July 1939, Page 6

TUESDAY, JULY 11, 1939. Economic Conditions and War

Quito a favourite theme of recent 'discussion among intcrnation'd publicists lias been Germany’s economic position and its possible influence firstly upon the precipitation of a war and secondly upon the conduct of a war, if undertaken. Outside Germany itself —and possibly among some of her own people, were there any freedom of expression allowed them —there seems to be a fairly general consensus of opinion that, economically speaking, a situation of extreme tension has been created by the policy which Herr Hitler has been so steadily and persistently pursuing during the last four or five years.

The immense programme of rearmament and military training which has been in progress during all that time, and is still being continued, was entered upon without any due thought for the very scanty reserve of financial resources that were available for carrying it through. The consequence has been that recourse had early to bo taken to the imposition in various forms of heavy taxation that has gone on steadily increasing greatly to the detriment of the profitable industrial activities of the country and of those engaged in them, cither as employers or employees. At the outset there was such a great body of unemployed that the workers were glad enough to accept, upon almost any terms, the employment offered by the great armament and munition works that were established. They were also doubtless actuated by the patriotic ardour which their Fuhrer had contrived to stir so deeply. Hut they were led to believe that the sacrifices to which they were thus called upon to submit themselves would be of comparatively short duration, to be followed by a period of relative relaxation and easier conditions of labour. Hut the expectations thus created have been in no way realised and, though it is not allowed open expression, there is a great deal of simmering discontent among the working population. These same conditions have, of course, had their adverse effect upon the industrial output of marketable/ goods upon which both the internal and external trade of the country depend. This has resulted in a very considerable contraction of the export trade, from which are realised the funds necessary to pay for the vast quantities of imported raw material required for both rearmament and industrial purposes, as well as for foodstuffs.

Germany has shown a great deal of ingenuity, but only with very partial success, in devising plans for overcoming these difficulties, which would necessarily be greatly aggravated were a big war to develop. For such an eventuality she has certainly been able to establish considerable reserves of wartime supplies, but they are not of such a volume as to stand any very lengthy drain upon them. Recent territorial annexations may have eased the position in this respect but not to any very substantial extent, while war with Great Hritain and France would almost certainly cut her bff from further oversea supplies. For these and other reasons the conclusion is drawn in many quarters that despite the intense militarisation of the country and its population, perhaps because of it, Germany would not be able to sustain any very lengthy war against a strong opposition. Hut, as a writer in the "Round Table” points out, the situation thus outlined may not operate as a deterrent to provoking or launching a war—may, indeed, act as an incentive to it. “War,” he says, “will not be inspired by any real grievance, economic or political. Far mor< likely is it to arise from a desperate attempt by the dictatore to distract attention from jnternal economic difficulties by external adventures. By attacking foreign countries which they blame for the troubles they themselves have caused, they may seek at tho eleventh hour to close the gulf that yawns, sometimes widely and sometimes hardly at all, between themselves and the mass of their people.” If, then, Germany’s economic condition is found to be bad, this in itself is no assurance that she will not embark on war, though it provides some assurance that she would lose. On the other hand, if contrary to the opinions here cited, it is found to be good, she may deem it best to make war while she' can still have hope of winning. In this relation the continual talk of “encirclement” by German propagandists and the vehement accusations against Great Britain as the prime mover in it may not be without their significance as to the climax toward which the German people are being worked up.