Possible Decline in Population

Manawatu Times, Volume 60, Issue 133, 8 June 1935, Page 9

Possible Decline in Population

DEATH-RATE OVERTAKING THE BIRTH-RATE AT HOME

A renewed warning of the danger of the death-rate overtaking tho birthrate, with a consequent decline in population, is given by the British Re-gistrar-General in his Statistical Keview of England and Wales.

The Registrar-General, whoso report is in respect of the year 1932, states that in 1932 the excess of live births over deaths registered in England and Wales was 129,8-13, compared with 140,-151 in 1931, 193,381 in 1930, 111,ISI in 1929, and 199,87 Sin 1928.

“The present rate of natural increase is 3.3 a 1000 population. Lower rates were recorded in 191 S (0.4) and 1929 (2.9). It compares with a figure of approximately 10 a 1000 in the years immediately preceding the war and over 14 a 1000 in the period 187G-18S0 when the birth-rate was at about its maximum.

“Stated in these terms the curve oE natural increase expresses no morn than that the crude birth-rate has hitherto been greater than the crude death-rate and that the decline in the former has advanced at a greater rate than the fall in the latter. From tho general continuity of the series it may be inferred that tho number of births will continue to exceed the death for some years, and that, apart from the results of migration, the population will continue to increaso during such period though, naturally, at a slower pace.

“What must not be inferred from mero excesses of births over deaths of from their alternative expressions as rates a 1000 total population, is that the continuance of current conditions regarding fertility and mortality v.’ould be sufficient to ensure a continuous increase in tho national population, both now and in the remote future.

“If an appreciable increase in the birthrate does not take place,” he adds, “the future growth of tho population will tend to diminish up to the stage at which births aud deaths are equal, after which a reduction in population will occur.”

Although the birth-rate, in 1933 was the lowest ou record up to that year, and in the following year it was still lower, later figures arc slightly more reassuring. The birth-rate for 190 l showed, for tho first time siucc 1920, a definite increase (0.4 a 1000 over the 14.4 a 1000 of. tho previous year), and in tho week, ended January 19 it had risen to 10.5 a 1000 —1.7 a 1000 above tho rate for tho whole of 1934. It is confirmed in the “Review” that overcrowding means a high deathrate. Mortality from all causes at ages under 5 is seen to increase with greater overcrowding within each latitude zone, so that towns with 9.18 per cent, of their population overcrowded show mortalities half as great again as the

towns with less than three per cent, overcrowded.

At ages 5-15 this effect of overcrowding at a given latitude is also present, but not nearly so evident as at the pre-school ages. At age 05 and over, given for comparison, tho relation with overcrowding still persists, but the excess at 9-1 S per cent, overcrowded over that at 0-3 per cent, only amounts to ouc-tenth to one-seventh of the rate.

• It is pointed out that it is unnecessary to suppose that climatic differences aro of paramount importance in causing the descending progression of mortality rates from north to south. Greater crowding of tho population, and the effect of diminished solar radiation, aro given as causes of the northward increase in mortality.