Technicians, Not Masses, May Wage Next War

Manawatu Times, Volume 59, Issue 218, 18 September 1934, Page 4

Technicians, Not Masses, May Wage Next War

«I do riot think we will have ■war in the near future. Ido believe that Europe will try her hand at war again sonio day, because after all, there's nothing like trying, I do not think that war, when it comos, will bo as terrible as many people think. Probably we will never have war again on th© scale of the last Great War. It may bo waged, not by massed armies marching back and forth over trenches, hut hy groups of technicians in overalls, employed to do a little bombing or poisoning. Possibly it may even fizzle out. There is no Government in Eturope to-day so secure that it coxfld afford to militarise and arm its whole man-power. The risk of internal strife would he too great,” declared Dr. W. M. Smith, of Palmerston North, to the Pal* mexstou North Rotary Club yesterday in a discussion of current European situations and their probable outcome. Europe, though riven with distrust, enmity, ecotsomic dissent and separatism, would probably evolve a durable salvation for her peoples, accompanied by a greater fullness of life, be suggested. Dr. Smith, in opening bis address, disclaimed the role of absolute prophet, ior everv day the turn of events was giving the lie to the utterances of proclaimed prophets, and we were witnessing their downfall, one after another. Despite this, a measure or speculation was unavoidable in considering present world ,conditions, parrtteniarly those that could ho marshalled under the caption of "Whither Europe?” What wore, in essence, tho "factors that had sustained tho stability of Europe, as wc knew it a few years ago, and what were those now at work remoulding a now Europe? The latter influences must in time be felt throughout the world, for there was no part of it so nemotc as to be immune from European civilisation in some degree. 'A recent visitor to the Dominion had voiced regret that "the hegemony of Europe” was now dominating New Zealand in thought and dress to an increasing extent, robbing the country of its rightful individuality. Tho criticism was scarcely warranted, but there wero some elements n European life that it was desirable for extraEuropean countries to borrow. Lessons of the Past The essential of European history ever since the Greek dominion had hoea the concept of the free man and individual liberty fighting tire concept of the all-powerful State. This always had been and still was the'vital Wring in the true European spirit. At times (such as in Germany to-day) individuals were delivered over holusbolus into the power of an over-ween-ing State, but-this course must inhibit progress and destroy initiative. That was why there remained something fundamental about the liberty concept inherited from tho Greeks. The lamp of liberty bad not always burned imdimmed, as when Dome had crucified her way to greatness; but it had never Ibeen (extinguished. Assault on Liberty Why was personal liberty being so widely.assailed in Europe to-dav? The reasons,..said Dr. Smith, were various. Wo stood to-day at the end of an. economic era. Tho system of private capitalism had worn itself out, containing, like other social' systems, the seeds of its own decay. It had not taken a base sufficiently broad, and in this respect was far less tolerant and more -ruthless than now obsolete feudalism. ‘‘Another great ■weakness of tiro present regime is the limited liability company. It was probably a fine institution in its time, but has been pushed in certain directions that may ultimately bo fatal to it. It is liable to be used for ends for which it was never intended and can be twisted to aid unscrupulous individuals. Financial Oligarchy "Our economic system has been in thje past too much under financial control. The financial side of economic life becomes more important than the productive, with -an unduo emphasis placed on the machinations of financial groups. Tho financial interest behind. the scenes does not always coincide with the common weal. Instability has been caused, too, by the rapid advances of economic technique, and it is doubtful if any system of direction could eliminate loss and friction in this regard. Co-operation of the whole of the community would be demanded, and that has hitherto been impossible. Must Make Surrender "The whole world i 3 disturbed, too, by tho conflict of national sovereignty with international relationships. We cannot go on defending national sovereignty and making a pretence of international goodwill. There must be some yielding up of sovereignty, even if it sound unpatriotic to suggest it, to international co-operation. There must bo a surrender, not only in military matters, but also m monetary affairs. We cannot for alt time reconcile national sovereignty with world Security and progress." Break-Down Apparent There were, declared the speaker, several manifestations of the breakdown that had occurred in human affairs. Most; significant was the at-

Terrors of Strife Less Fearful Than Imagined Now No Immediate Fear ot European Conflict;

tack on what was called democracy, with the militarisation of politics, the growth of political armies. Again, in •some countries Micro was a surprising servitude to the State, ns in Germany, Russia and Italy. Another dnngcroui indicator, though few people perceived i ; t as such, was tho ascendancy of socalled national Governments as in. England and Prance. Such a Government had hidden weaknesses of its own, and might even be the veil of dictatorship.' ITnnest was signified, too, by international distrust and the everpresent threat of war. Such a throat still hung disturbingly ever Europe, and indeed the whole world. Finally, there was tho increasing intervention of the State .in economic activities. Many statesmen, while disclaiming such a policy for themselves, were being swept into tho prevailing current despite their professions. Proceeding to an examination -of Europe with a view to possible conflagrations, Dr. Smith said ho saw little reason for concern in Eastern Europe —among’ Russia, tho Baltic Powors, Poland and Germany. Poland, having patched up quarrels with her neighbours, was now quiescent and noncommittal. A non-aggression pact, an "Eastern Locarno,” had been mooted, but there appeared little reason for this at present except, through the eyes of Prance. Poland, convinced that she had too long been regarded as a pawn in the game of statecraft, had asserted her independence, casting off French influenco to that end. There was no fear of an attack being made in this region in the near future. In south-eastern Europe lay Rumania.. Yugoslavia, Hungary and Italy. The Yugoslavs feared Italian ambitions in the Adriatic and Mussolini’s desire to consolidate his position on tho Danube. Yugo-Slavia had a surprisingly strong and efficient army, and with tho increasing amity and co-opera-tion evident between Yugo-Slavia and her immediate neighbours, Mussolini might find himself checkmated along this path. But again there was comparative tranquillity and little to fear. Potential Tinder-Box

Central European Powers were dominated by the question of who should control the 'Danube, and the economic and political future of Austria. Tho major contestants in the arena were Italy and Germany, Incidentally, the spectacle of Italy intervening in Austria was a strange odc. Two generations ago Northern Italy lay under Austrian dominion; to day the boot was worn on tho other foot. The issue between Italy and Germany was more than', economic. If Hitler—himself an Austrian with • bitter experiences of Vienna—should win ascendancy in Austria, his frontier would bo extended to tho# Brenner pass, considerably menacing Italy’s military position. What Might Have Boon

“But for tho prematura death of Dollfuss at the hands of Austrian Nazis, Hitler might have been ready to fight for Austria much sooner than most, peoplo believe. His step was delayed only by the training of bis Austrian Guard of 00,000 men, now one of the bestdrilled units in Europe. Since then, however, the turn of the economic situation at home has tied Hitler’s hand, so that he cannot risk a move into Austria. It now seems that Mussolini has checkmated Hitler, but had it not been for the happenings in Vienna and the economic situation there are many who consider we would have seen war in Europe this summer.” In Western Europe, France and England were watchfully peaceful. There were many who declared they were prepared to seize Holland and Belgium to assist in their operations should an attack from tlio Rhine appear imminent. If they did not, Germany would pounce upon Ibe Low Countries, and this would materially assist her in heavy bombiDg attacks. This attitude was at the back of the recent conferences between French and British diplomats, no matter what other interpretations might be placed upon them. The Eastern Question

'l'h <3 modern Eastern question, related to the possibilities of a Japanese attack on Russia. There had been undoubtedly a measure of understanding between Japan and Germany as to policy in the event of an Eastern war, and many Japanese militarists wore constantly in Berlin. If Japan had waged war on the Soviet from the east Germany would probably have attacked from tho west, for she coveted the Ukraine as a theatre for national expansion. Perhaps only Russia’s Tccent acretions of strength, and European uncertainty, had frustrated such a move. Economic Chaos Dr. Smith said that the rivalries of tho European nations in tho matter of exchange and tariffs had tended to throw the onus for controlling economic activities increasingly upon tfio State, as witness the supplanting of Schmidt in Germany by Dr. Schacht. The result of excessive tariffs was to drive nations towards State control in the economic field. The policy recently adopted by England of boosting agricultural production was likely- to cause a lot of trouble ultimately. It amounted to something far more than imposing a tariff on manufactures, as it struck at the root of our economic organisation. Major Elliot would l probably lifid himself with import boards and other organisations on bri

hands. An incrcaso in price must eventually reach tho consumers, who would use their political power to some purpose or other. How would Europe solve her besotting economic problems? She would probably do it in a canny way, and although Iho great vosted interests might apparently gain increasing power, the outcome would finally bo a regime wherein private enterprise as wo understood it would almost disappear. An increasing share in the direction of economic attirs would bo taken by the people as a whole, and the benefits of industry would be more widely distributed. But tho evolution might be so subtly disguised as to be almost imperceptible to many. Yet such an evolution must shortly besot, in train, for only so could our productive system extend its scope. The .State in Europe would assume greater powers of economic direction. Thanks to the speaker were expressed by Dr. lv. Doan. Visitors welcomed were Messrs A. Carter (Oliakune), .1. A. ffllcvenson (Christchurch), 0. W. Bosworth (Wellington), F. G. Everson, S. J. JV.mnoU, and Rev. A. N. Sootier (I’nlmerslon North).