Manawatu Daily Times The World’s Wheat In Retrospect

Manawatu Times, Volume XLIX, Issue 3289, 8 March 1926, Page 8

Manawatu Daily Times The World’s Wheat In Retrospect

A study of the world’s wheat position for the past nine months or so is highly instructive. It is all the mope interesting in view of our own precarious domestic position. When last year, the Canterbury wheat growers agreed to sell their harvest at 6/5 to 6/9 a bushel, it was generally understood that the world was facing a heavy wheat surplus, Canada was expected to have a record harvest, Australia had large areas in wheat, the Argentine crop was doing well, and above all, Russia’s harvest was expected to swamp the world with wheat. Everything was in favour of a cheap loaf, and bakers, milleis and merchants in different parts of the world, holding large stocks, lost heavily from falling prices. The impression of a heavy surplus was accentuated by tlie fact that everybody kept off the markets as raucly as possible, and was content with doing a hand-to-mouth business, owing to the fear of further declines. All this was changed over night. Nobody yet knows exactly how it all happened. A bombshell came from Russia, exploding the idea of surplus wheat .from that countiy. The official estimates of Russia bad been given as 93 million quarters, which would have left something like twenty-hve million quarters (or 1% million tons/ for export, But it was found that instead of exporting, Russia had to buy wheat forborne consumption. In the Argentine, the crop became infected with black rust, cutting the harvest down by 40 per cent. The absence of rain at vital periods reduced the Australian harvest greatly. Bad weather in New Zealand prevented the growers from sowing wheat. Canada seemed to be the only country in the world to come up to anything like expectation, for although the harvest was not as good as anticipated, there was a fair surplus for export, which commanded an excellent

P 1 °So it came about, almost from one clay to another, that the world’s wheat prospects changed from a surplus to a shortage. It has never been satisfactorily _ explained how the Soviet officials could have made such a miscalculation. it is doubtful even if it was done in good faith, or with the intention of influencing the market by spreading false reports as to the supply of Russian wheat. Such changed conditions were, of course, of the utmost importance to New Zealand. Faced with a shortage of four million bushels, it made all the difference to growers, millers, merchants and consumers whether there existed a shortage 01 a surplus in the world’s markets. It was even of greater importance to Great Britain. That country requires something like 33 million quarters of wheat annually, and onlj grows about 9 millions. The heavy baancc has to he imported wherever wheat may be offering. _ As already mentioned, Canada is reaping the full benefit from the serious shortage. She possesses the granaries of the world to-day, and her splendid organisation of co-operative enterprise enables her to control the supply and so keep prices at a level that will ensure the best return to the farmer for his labour. . The consensus of opinion, among wheat autnoiities appears to he that there exists an increasing consumptive demand throughout the world. Even Eastern countries, such as Japan and China, are substituting wheat and flour for rice. Tn fakin' 1, the exports of wheat from Canada to Japan, we find that”it increased from eight bushels in 1910, to 7,058,910 bushels of wheat and 111,965 barrels of flour in 1924. The export to China is practically on the same basis. In IJI4, Canada exported neither wheat nor flour to China. Ten years ] a ter the export of wheat to that country amounted to 5,206,820 bushels, while 504,923 barrels of flour were sent the sa me way. If these figures stand for anything, they should convince the Canterbury wheat grower that the world’s consumption of wheat is on the increase, and that this added demand will afford him a greater measure of protection than all the duties and tariffs legislation can provide.