ELECTION PROSPECTS.

Manawatu Standard, Volume LV, Issue 303, 20 November 1935, Page 2

ELECTION PROSPECTS.

THE WELLINGTON SEATS. (By Telegraph.—Special to Standard.) WELLINGTON, Nov. 20. Electioneering in Wellington has only brightened up during the last week, and it has been difficult to secure very clear indications of tendencies on the part of the mass of voters. However, the position is now becoming more clarified, though it does not make forecasting any less difficult. The Wellington district may’ provide some electoral surprises. It is four years since there was an appeal to the electors, and it is a long time since there was so embarrassing a choice of candidates. Though there are long lists in some of the constituencies, it is generally a case of a Labour candidate realising that one particular rival is most to be feared, because electors will sort out the likeliest winners for their ticket, either for the Government, or against it. A splitting of the anti-Government vote is the greatest handicap to the official Opposition. This factor is most marked in Wellington East, where All* It. Semple, the sitting Labour member, has had to exert himself more anxiously' than usual owing to the large amount of campaigning possible among five rivals. The most promising of the other candidates is Air O. O. Mazengarb, a ready, well-inform-ed speaker who has been giving his audiences well-restrained comment and ample supporting facts, as a contrast to the free and lively platform exploiis of Mr Semple. The fight will be between those candidates, for Mr W. J. Gaudin (Independent) and Mr Duncan (Democrat) are building more on municipal service than is safe in a national contest. Miss Rawclift'e (Communist) and Mr Nicolaus (Commonwealth Land Party) aro “also starteds.” The veteran campaigner, Mr R. A. Wright in Wellington Suburbs, will not this time score another big majority, for he has a clear fight against Mr Butler, an extremely able Labour speaker with good organisation. There is a suggestion that Mr Wright, unbacked by any solid block of party vote, may this time meet defeat for this reason. Wellington North electors find much to interest them in the vigorous unconventional platform work of Mrs Gilmer, an Independent. Judging by campaign activity, Mrs Gilmer should score a victory against Mr Chapman, the sitting Labour member, but appearances do not always count, and the issue is really between Mr Chapman and Mr Treadwell, the National candidate, who can give a definite answer to the vitally important question of how they stand in relation to the Government on noconfidence. The lady candidate, carrying independence to the limit, is not prepared to answer this question except by say’ing that she will reserve the right to vote for the best measures. If Mrs Gilmer’s support is taken mostly from Labour, she will be helping the National candidate-, otherwise it will be a case of Mr Chapman again winning on a minority vote. Wellington South is regarded as a certainty for the sitting Labour member, Mr Mclveen, whose opponents, Mr Goldsmith (Democrat) and Mr Toogood (National), are not undermining effectively the experienced work over a long period of the holder of the Another of the certainties is Mr Fraser for Wellington Central, against whom Mr Mason (National) is putting up an heroic fight, making good use of the P *Turning to the surrounding districts, the difficulty of the split vote makes Otaki an uncertain proposition with the real fight raging between Mr G. A. -Monk (Nationalist) and Air Lowry (Labour) and the odds on the lattei. Mx Appleton (Independent) is appealing to the voter who in his absence would vote Nationalist, while Mr Bothamley (Democrat) is also scattering voting force ineffectively. There is no doubt about Labour holding Hutt seat with Air Walter Nash, who lias “nursed’; the positron carefully ever since his first election, and faces an opponent with local body experience, but not the sitting member s knowledge of national affairs. Air Nash is sufficiently at ease to spare time for some outside campaigning. .... Wairarapa is said to be safe for the National candidate, Air Card, ns a successor to Hon. D. though the Labour candidate, Air Robcits is doing well, while two others, Alessrs H. C. Thomsen (Independent) and T. W. Macdonald (Democrat) , are splitting the vote. In the adjoining electorate of Masterton it is thought probable that Mr Hislop’s great handicap of being a non-resident will deprive the Democrats of representation in Parliament by their leader. _ The seat has been a fairly safe one in the past for the Government member, Air Sykes, and he should manage to hold it against Air Hislop and the Labour candidate, Air Robertson, though under the circumstances' his majority is no# going to be impressive.