Manawatu Evening Standard. MONDAY, SEPT. 30, 1935. OUTLOOK FOR WHEAT.

Manawatu Standard, Volume LV, Issue 259, 30 September 1935, Page 6

Manawatu Evening Standard. MONDAY, SEPT. 30, 1935. OUTLOOK FOR WHEAT.

Estimates prepared by the Department oi Agriculture in the United States indicate that the world outlook for wheat has improved lately. Short crops in the Argentine, America, and Australia have reduced the surplus to the smallest figures for thirteen years past. Compared with the 1934-35 season, the carry-over will be less by 330 million bushels. Forecasts of a low yield in the grain areas of the "United States have been made recently. At the beginning of September the Crop Reporting Board estimated that the yield would be the lowest since 1904 at 594 million bushels, 30 million below normal domestic requirements, and comparing with an average production between 1928 and 1932 of 861 million bushels. America, however, has 130 million bushels in store, so that the people’s requirements are not prejudiced by drought and other factors having very considerably reduced the harvested crop. A rather serious warning has been made by the _ Kansas Grain Dealers’ Association of a famine threatening America, unless the acreage under production is increased; but the statement may be discounted to the extent that it comes from an interested party probably opposed to the economic policy of the Government. According to the Department of Agriculture’s estimates the world carry-over at the end of this season will be between 400 and 500 million bushels, “not much more than a normal world surplus prior to 1928.’’ Statistically, therefore, world conditions as a whole have improved in that the accumulated stocks have declined to a marked extent, chiefly because the unfavourable seasons in the United States have helped to clear away a large accumulation of wheat. This reduction, however, is offset to a large extent by the fact that almost two-thirds of the surplus remain in Canada’s hands and she dominates the market. At the same time Canada’s harvest was improved by good rains, while the European crops were expected to equal the record levels of the past three years. It was fear of a considerable increase in world production that caused the International Wheat Advisory Committee a little while ago to state that the “maintenance of the present acreage with average yields would produce a re-accumulation resulting in prolonged ruinous prices.’’ Since then, however, _ it would appear that the situation has been improved, and thfit the industry is regaining a better balance. It cannot wholly do so while artificial systems of restriction operate. Australian growers have found some consolation in expanding trade with the East, 41 per cent, of the aggregate export of wheat last year going to countries other than European, and 62 per cent, in the first half of this year. Attempts at control or better wheat prices have not been successful, and experience has confirmed the view that it is almost impossible to fix prices in the world-wide trade in wheat. The International Wheat Committee’s agreement with the producing countries failed because the Argentine, faced with an unusually large crop, exported more than her quota. The wheat industry,' like other primary industries, is suffering from the policy of economic nationalism that ’ inflicts suffering upon a people for its stupidity. As a commentator states, the fact cannot be escaped that, due to economic nationalism and war fear, there is the paradox of “restriction” in wheat exporting countries and very costly artificial “cultivation” in normally wheat importing* countries. There is tlie further paradox of over-pro-duction and under-consumption of wheat, esjjecially important when consumption is concerned with the very “bread of life.” In Britain and countries of Europe and Asia there is uneasiness over the prevalence of low nutrition standards, and at the League of Nations Assembly last week the subject was discussed on a resolution being introduced urging Governments to consider the increased consumption of foods. The subject is one of world-wide importance,