Manawatu Evening Standard. MONDAY, DECEMBER 7, 1931. A LABOUR PREDICTION.

Manawatu Standard, Volume LII, Issue 6, 7 December 1931, Page 6

Manawatu Evening Standard. MONDAY, DECEMBER 7, 1931. A LABOUR PREDICTION.

Ik a spirit of elation on the night of the general election, Mr Holland, the Leader of the Labour Party, declared that Labour was now definitely in the position of being the alternative Government, and he predicted that probably before three years were over the electors would have placed a Labour Government on the Treasury Benches. The same thing, with perhaps not the direct limitation of time, has been said on quite a number of occasions previously by Mr Holland. The cause of his elation is recognised in the increased strength of his party in the House of Representatives, but it is questionable whether the actual facts justify it. A detailed comparison of the votes cast in 1928 and in the election last week might be interesting, but it would not accurately state the position because of the peculiar conditions under which this one was fought. A total of 372,868 votes went to candidates supporting the Coalition-and 229,884 for Labour nominees. In 1928, 254,745 votes were cast for Reform, 219,745 for United, and 185,773 for Labour. Had the United and Reform voting strength of three- years ago been maintained, their candidates should have polled at least 474,000 votes, but it is quite evident, no doubt because of the formation of the Coalition Government, that the United Party did not have the party organisation on this occasion that won for it the support received in 1928. On the other hand the Reform Party organisation has not been weakened to any marked extent. It is possible therefore, and most probable, that a large number of votes that went to the United Party three years ago, when the electors expressed their dissatisfaction with. the Reform Government, were gained by Labour this year. ' A stronger United organisation might very well have prevented this. There were, however, other contributing reasons. In difficult times, a Government appealing to the people has a strenuous task to justify measures which, however necessary, are unpopular with the masses. Thus, in the Dominion this year there has been discontent caused through wage reductions in the Civil Service and in £ number of awards, marked .unemployment, and restricted activities, in striking contrast to the policy of expansion with borrowed money in past years, and all this has re--acted to a certain extent to the advantage of the party chiefly opposing the Government. An election held under such conditions can be no criterion for the future, but it is a warning for moderate opinion. The history of the past eighteen months has mostly been one of defeats for Governments appealing to the country, so that the New Zealand electors have shown unmistakably that they will not be wooed by Labour to the extent of placing it in power. Had it not been for the diffusion of voting power in several electorates the Labour Party must have emerged with twenty

or less members. Another point to be remembered is that the total poll this year, after allowing for the uncontested seats, must fall considerably short of the 743,691 votes cast in 1928, and there was, of course, a greater roll than three years ago. The absence of the licensing issue in large measure accounts for the reduction. It may be safely presumed that every available vote was cast for the Labour Party nominees ; therefore, a considerable number of electors, through apathy or other reasons, remained silent, and these are votes that must, in the main, have gone to the Coalition.

Unless something" unforeseen happens, Parliament should run ! its full course of three years. The period of reconstruction, governed as it is by economic conditions, suggests that the pact between Reform and United will be continued for at least that time. Only an unbridged gulf between the two parties caused by some sudden disagreement would end the life of Parliament, but there is no evidence to justify Mr Holland’s assertion. Mr Poison has urged that both parties should enter into a fusion, but in the meantime it seems preferable that the working arrangement of the past three months should continue. The reason is obvious. The Government has a stern task ahead of it. The paramount need is for still further economies so that financial equilibrium will be achieved at the end of next March. The letter from. Mr W. Thomson, which we published on" Saturday, expresses the viewpoint of the thoughtful elector who has placed the Government on trial to restore the balance between expenditure and revenue. And it is recognised that,, whatever form they take, economies must play a large part to this end. Taxation cannot go beyond a certain stage, and expert opinion declares that point to have been reached. There is also a yacaney in Cabinet shortly to be filled, if Mr D. Jones has to submit to defeat in Mid-Canterbury. That, in itself, perhaps, will not be easy. City interests have expressed dissatisfaction with the preponderance of rural representation in the Cabinet and are clamouring for recognition of' their rights. In this connection I the electors of Palmerston may justly put forward the claims of their member for consideration.