THE NEAR EAST.

Marlborough Express, Volume L, Issue 86, 11 April 1916, Page 5

THE NEAR EAST.

GREAT CHANGES ANTICIPATED

MR ASHMEAD BART-LETT'S

OPINION

ALLIES' WESTERN PLANS

The best description one can give of My Ashrnead Bartlett, war correspondent and lecturer, is that he is J£nglish; not of the type that is caricatured on the Continent, lmt of the type that has gained respect at Home and abroad. One might mistake him for" a naval officer in mufti. He has the clear-cut features, with strength of character in every'line. Without, being effusive, he is oasyof manner «md quietly cordial. The Wellington Post reporter who met him yesterday and -heard his remarks on his trip on the Riverina^ and his pleasure at seeing an open fire, quite forgot that the lecturer had been introduced only within the past five minutes. In discussing the war, 'Mr Ashinead Bartlett prefers to talk of the future; his point of view is evidently that criticism and tho review of past operations are,•■'.most "useful front the lessons to be learnt. GERMANS FKAIt AN OFFENSIVE. Before going to the Dardanelles Mr Ashiiiead Bartleto was for some time on the western front, so. tho reporter sought his opinion of the present position. ''We '.rust have the biggest concentration along any part of the line," he replied. "In fact, the .German , Army seems to be split in two groups; > one against Verdun and one against us, the rest of the. line, being held very thinly. I think the attack at Verdun .vas made so as to deliver a blow before we jiuictioned with.- the Froncn and delivered a joint offensive, which the Germans wish to avoid, at all costs. They hope to knock out the French Vnny for the time being, so that it will not ( be'able to ■ hiako the offensive with us How far our'plans have been altered by this offensive one cannot say. and it rather looks as if the joint effensive has* been postponed for is bit. How do yon view the preparations which aro being made on the Yser? ''I don't think that the Germans will attempt an attack on the Yser. They art* probably making a concentration there fearing an >'attack. It would be the best thing in the world for us if they did attack, hut it! is rather too much to hope. After the failure at Verdun, Germany is not likely to throw nway another 200,000. Ono cannot. emphasise too much the great advantage given by defensive operations. In snite of our huge superiority of numbers, it is no' good anticipating great and speedy results, as all trenches, have to be taken in detail at immense cost. Verdun is'an obiect-lesson in itself of the great diifieulties we have to face "when next we do take the offensives The■'■'. Germans are extremely good in defence, much I better than they are in attack, be- ! cause rbey .utilise to the fullest ex^ I tont,their immense masses of machinei guns and 'heavy artillery. ROUMANIA HOLDS THE KEY. "Personally," Mr> Ashmead-Bart-lett continued, "1 anticipate this y€:ir to see great changes in the ifJear East. Roumania holds the whole key to the .situation in her hands at the j present minute. If, she strikes sho can invade Northern Bulgaria and occupy Bulgarian territory, as- sn*> did in 10LJ, by ■".throwing' ' her two great i>ontoon bridges' across the Danube. Then, if we .strike srmultaoieously from Saloni|va, it would' mean that the Bulgarian army would be crushed between two great armies, and unless .she- could obtain very material assistance from Hhc Germans, Austrians, and Turks, Bulr garia would be obliged to makepeace.. -The Central lowers, however, have!, very few and smajl forces in the Balkans, as they cannot snare men from their other fronts, aiid Bulgaria and; Turkey are certain to be left to their resources. -It is unlikely 'tha^ the Turks can give the Bulgarians much assistance, because the capture of Erzeroum and the. Russian advance on Ti-ebizond and Bagdad, comrbinedi with-, ©rti- own- advance on. Bagr tHe-Tigris, are oeetipying the fgivmter pairt of their army,, aiid: they L'wil&foe4 obliged to send large -number's ;o£ the t.i'dapa' that^ they had'cdncen'trated in Thrace and Gallip.oli to the .East. But, as,l ha.vp already stated, everything depends oil Roumania." If she only comes in vyith us—why, then, ■ I 'think .you',will see both Bulgaria and Turkey making peace on. any termr. If Roiimania comes in, Groc<!3 wouldi follow in the natural course. It is unwise t-o speculate, but I think , this year, before the summer is out, w© shaJl see'sAnic" very dramatic changes in the Near East.

A DRAGGING WAR. t "No* one should 'expect a speedy termination of the war. It js bound to drag on for a lon{* time. Wo should come out victorious, even if we fail to win those great and decisive victories in the field which' so many hope to see., but .which are, as a matter of fact, almost impossible ot attainment under modern conditions of fighting. We enjoy every advantage ■ tlr?> cononiir ' sidf\ and, although it is. deplorable that we art* obliged to spend immense sums of money and are accumulating such a huge debt, there is no reason why1 we should not recover rapidly when the war is over, if .satisfactory economic arrangements for preferential trade and for a- great attack on the neutral markets of the world are made amongst the Allies. The German mercantile marine is already bankrupt, and we ought to lie able to destroy it completely and resume our old' position as the world's great >aririer, which was-being slowly under-l-mined before the war."

GALLIPOLI NOT IN VAIN. Mr Bartlett conclude<l with a brief refei-ence to the operations on Galliix)li. "It is a great pity that I cannot come to New Zealand to describe a triumphal entry into Constantinople, but I don't think that the bravery and sacrifice of the New Zealand troops have been in vain, bf-' cause, as 1 havo just pointed out. al-

though we raited to-reach our nl>. jective—Constantinopl»-> in 1915--I----sc.e no reason why we should not getii- by other ineass before the war isover. The. ten-iiic struggle which wehad with tho Turks I:as.largely exhausted their strength, and L-jlp&ct materially, tr> «-nable the Russians to triumph at Erzeroum.?'