OUR YORKSHIRE LETTER.

Marlborough Express, Volume XLIII, Issue 138, 9 June 1909, Page 2

OUR YORKSHIRE LETTER.

OUTLOOK FOR THE COMING

SALES

(From Our Special Correspondent.) BRADFORD, April 30y 1909. Next Tuesday the third'series of Colonial wool sales begin, and already the eyos of the entire world are focussed upon Coleman Street, there being as much interest as ever manifest in the probable course of events. The movement of wool and tops during the vacation in consuming centres both at Home and abroad leads one to expect Another rise, and there is no disguising the fact that the trade is still in a good humour for buying the raw material. Slowly but surely prices have risen since the May sales, 1908, and it appears that we are not yet at the top of the ascent. It must be admitted that the experience is a far more pleasant and profitable one when values are rising than when prices slump, and the course of events since this year dawned have helped considerably to dispel the gloom and despondency which arose through the heavy losses which had to be accounted for as the direct result of the slump of last year. If the experience of 1908 counts for anything, it shows that 40's tops at 8d and super 60's at 19|d are always a good investment, and if the trade learns well the lesson of last year it will help to compensate not a little for the heavy losses which befell practically everybody dealing with the raw material. We do not think we can do better than show how values have steadily risen since the bottom was touched, and the following table shows the great change that has come over prices for leading descriptions of both merino and crossbred tops:—•

It may be interesting and useful to remind readers that during the boom year of 1907, when the unanimous opinion was expressed that prices got to a "dangerous" level, super 60's tops the last week in April were quoted at 27|d, or only a penny above to-day's quotation, whereas 40's tops were standing at 17d to 17^3, a far different price to what they are today. Many of the shrewdest operators strongly hold the opinion that 40's must go up or 60's come down, but we must say that notwithstanding such high quotations for merinos, we cannot at the moment see much chance of a fall, and any change should find coarse orossbreds appreciating. The question of supplies is perhaps at the moment the one feature of the market which is receiving most attention, and we referred to this important subject a fortnieht ago. Like many more we must admit that Dalgety's last cable, giving the exports from Australasia up to the end ..of last month, was a little startling, and it deserved, serious consideration. In analysing the figures we frankly admit that we think we rather over estimated the quantity of wool that is likely to be available between now and the advent of the next Australian clip. It will be remembered that Dalgetys' stated that for the first nine months of the current year the exports from Australasia amounted to 2;095,000 bales, or an increase of 259,----000 bales. Such a statement of figures exceeded considerably the most sanguine expectations, and they point conclusively to the fact that without reckoning the old clip carried over last June 30th, there is going to be a sensible increase even in the current year's clip. We then stated that if we took the total deliveries which had been made to the trade up to the end of the last March series—l,3lo,ooo bales—from Dalgetys' figures 2,095,----000 bales, that apart from succeeding shipments during the three remaining months of the current year there yet remained 785,000 bales to come forward into the hands of the trade by way of direct imports and' London sales.. On the surface that is correct, but seeing that Dalgetys' figures went back and included the shipments from last July Ist, ". it is only fair to put against them the total deliveries to the trade say from last September London sales, and if we do that a different complexion is put upon matters. :- We think the following is a fair and honest representation of the casfc, and shows that there is less wool likely to be available in the middle of the year than what a surface glance at Dalgetys' last figures would lead one

to think. The following seems to''us to represent concisely the statistical standing of the wool situation, and throw considerable light upon the record shipments of wool from Australasia up to the end of last March 31st: Bales. Deliveries to the trade from July to end of September series ...... ..... .... 290,000 End of November series ... 239,000 End of January and March = series, ... ... 1,310,000 '; Total deliveries ... ...1,839,000 Add gross arrivals for May series ;.*• 377,500 Total ..." '..."■ 2,216,600 The above more than accounts for Dalgety's Australasian wool exports, but it should" not be forgotten that there is included deliveries to th© trade of South African wools, the arrivals of which since last July series amount to 255,492 bales, consequently these should really come off the above Australian figures. Putting one over against the other it points broadly to the fact that the available quantities of wool for succeeding series are going to be very much smaller than we thought they were, and for the July and September series the offerings will be comparatively small. Of course, if the wool is not available for London sales, it is somewhere, and undoubtedly it has gone forward into the hands of consumers. This raises the question of how such small prospective supplies are likely to affect values, and we can only say that whether th© wool is at present in consumer's hands or otherwise, values for merinos are getting where reasonable caution is advisable. Trade no doubt is good, particularly in the worsted industry. At the same time even grower's interests will be best served ( by a steady market at good prices, for \ nothing upsets trade so much as these 5 periodic booms and slumps. Above t all we don't want to see a repetition !of the fiasco of 1807-8, for fine wool | is getting well above its real market jvalue. Prospects point to an all S round 5 per cent, advance next week, ' which is quite plenty. ;

j A FURTHER UPWARD TENDENCY I "Wool continues to move with con- ■ spicuous freedom, there is no cessa- . tion of business, and since our last re--1 port a buoyant tone has characterised each market with a further upward tendency in values. Everything on the surface wears a distinctly healthy appearance, and the temper of the market since the recovery last summer has never been better than it is today. On all hands there is manifest confidence in the future of wool values, and the trade doing is considerable in all departments. Perhaps the most significant feature of the

week's business is the recovery in coarse crossbreds, and distinctly more life and activity.,, is manifest in them. A decidedly better feeling is being exercised towards coarse qualities, and a fair big business has been done in 40's tops. One cannot resist saying that a little speculation has been indulged in, undoubtedly due to spin-ners-being convinced that a further upwardj movement in values is practically certain next week in London, and feaiing the market going against them has induced many to buy in anticipation of their needs. It now looks as if the sales in Coleman Street will open with an all round advance of 5 per cent., though some seem to think that the improvement in merinos will be a little more marked. Prices in Bradford for 40's are now firmly established at 12 |d, though the bulk of last week's business was done at a farthing less. Even that only brings up Bradford prices to a level with the close of last London series for low crossbreds, and if there is a further advance, it will carry values ahead of those ruling in Worstedopolis. However, there is a very optimistic note sounded, and as far as one can see the demand for the raw material at the' forthcoming series will be of a very satisfactory character indeed. Consumption is. steadily developing even in coarse and medium crossbreds, and there is no doubt that on export account more satisfactory indents have lately come to hand. Merinos occupy the same satisfactory position as has been chronicled during, the past few months, and fine' topmakers are very independent. There is still in"~evidence a good inquiry for 60's to 70's tops, and prices are all in favour of the sellers. Commission woolcombers are as busy as ever, and spinners are in a most comfortable position. Mohair has been a little more active, but mostly in inferiors, and at a price business is to be done. The trouble in Constantinople is not expected to interfere with, the new clip.

Vfay Tune Tuly August September Dctober November December January February March April 70's 60's 50's d d d ' ... 22 20 15 ... 24 214 15 ... 24* 23 154 ... 244 224' 154 ... 244 22 15 ... 24 22 144 ... 25 23 16 ... 254 23 15| ... 254 234 16i ... 26 234 164 ... 27 25 17 ... 284 264 174 4U's d 8 10 11 10| 10 10 HI 114 12 12 124 124

AVERAGE QUOTATIONS FOR TOPS.