FUTURE OF GREAT NATIONS

Lake Wakatip Mail, Issue 3713, 5 October 1926, Page 2

FUTURE OF GREAT NATIONS

MR FISHER'S CRITICISM OF THE I LEAGUE Mr H. A. L. Fisher, as Principal and Director of Studies, delivered the closing lecture of the City of London Vacation Course in Education, his subject being ‘ Past and Future.’ Mr Fisher said the teacher of history would be well advised to look forward as well as backward. George Eliot had said that “of all forms of error prophecy was the most gratuitous.’’ He did not advance the contention that history was a sure guide to what would happen, but its evidence was often decisive as to what would happen, and it also ruled out hypotheses as to the future that might otherwise obtain currency One could nut predict with certainty, for instance, as to the survival of the Monarchy or of parliamentary institutions, but experience of the usefulness of the Monarchy and its increased popularity made it improbable that it would disappear within the experience of those now living. As for parliamentary institutions, there was no student of history who could not give 50 good reasons why the fate that had overtaken them in Italy, Spain, and Russia, where they had su'frered eclipse, should not overtake them in Britain. We expected to see an increased use of the air for travel and communication, but it was equally safe to predict that aircraft, being incapable of carrying the heaviest weights, would never supersede the ship. The power of man to forecast the future had grown with scientific knowledge and international peace. The French Revolution and the recent Russian Revolution were predicted by many observers. Lord Chesterfield, in 175(1, predicted the French Reroluti**, and many English and foreign travellers foresaw the revolution in Russia, but in both cases important errors were made as to the significance of the movements. It was thought that the Russian Revolution would he essentially Russian, and the enthronement in power of the philosophy of a German Jew was not anticipated. It was believed that Britain was down and out after the loss of the American colonies, and the Turk had been pronounced to be moribund for more than a century. The prediction that Serbia would prove the “Achilles heel” of the German Empire, foreseen by Gambetta in theseventies of last century, was, however. a remarkable example of clear foresight. He remembered being told by a distinguished Swedish statesman that Lenin (then an exile) had told him with confidence that he would be master of Russia as the result of a European war. That was also a notable instance of correct political prediction.

FATE OF HUMANITY. Could any large predictions be made to-day as to the future of humanity? Was the League of Nations destined to realise the hopes of peace-loving men and women, or was humanity to ruin its upward progress by wars, cadi one more destructive than the last, through the speed of science? They could only reply by estimating the forces that made for peace and those in the opposite scale. The optimistic could point to the disappearance of the duel, to the fact that over the surface of the North American Continent land armies corresponded to the scale of internal police; that the lakes between Canada and America were by a treaty, signed over 110 years ago, clear of warships; that in the British Empire there was a vast people bound togetner by a common tic; and that fifty-five nations had accepted the Covenant of the League of Nations. The use of gas and bombing aeroplanes had made war so destructive to non-combatants that nations might well shrink from it. and the financial and economic injury was so serious that nations which have once experienced it might be in no hurry to repeat the venture. On the other side, the Republic of China, formerly famous as trie most peace-loving community in the world, was now supplied with arms for its civil wars through the failure, by the interested operation of armament firms, of the Western Powers to ratify the Treaty of St. Germains regulating the export of arms, which was signed in 1920. The advantages derived from the increased disposition towards peace in the East were counterbalanced by this stirring of the warlike tempers of the Chinese people. Although the League of Nations had done excellent work, its creation was solely due to the pressure of the United States and Great Britain; it did not spring from any desire for such an institution among the Continental nations, and its roots on the Continent wore not yet very deep. The present ruler of Italy did not greatly believe in it, and the orientation of Italian policy might in his hands take a course not easily reconciled with the pledges implied in the acceptance of the Covenant. When they thought of the powet of armament firms, the semi-bar-baric state of many nations, the survival of animosities and jealousies, and the widespread interest in the arts of destruction, they could not feel too confident of better times. The maintenance of peace would involve a struggle. The peace of Europe at present was the offspring of exhaustion; their task was to make it the child of reason and goodwill. In that task educationists and the schools had great functions to perform. Upon educationists would depend the question of whether the rational way of settling international disputes would bo accepted, or there would be irrational recourse to force to the end of the chapter. When he was recently in A T ngoSlavia ho was impressed by the appearance everywhere of armed men, but on the other hand he found the secondary school books were thoroughly enlightened and that education was intelligibly directed. If the task of educating the population of the Balkans in the uses of civilised life could be taken in band, forces would be brought into existence that would have a great effect in pacifying that area in Europe. The teachings of history gained in interest il the teacher would look to the lessons of 1 be past as indicative of the course the Inline would take, and would be likely not to take, and by keeping the future before them they rendered their instruction of the past more fruitful and interesting* (Cheers.)

“Whatever you say 1 shall believe the exact opposite.” said the judge. “Guilty!” said the accused. “But if you arc a (bought reader why do you read my hand instead of reading inv mind?” “ It’s so much easier. 1 can see at once that you have a hand!”