NOTES ON THE WAR.

Lyttelton Times, Volume CXVII, Issue 17703, 1 February 1918, Page 4

NOTES ON THE WAR.

The campaign of unrestricted submarine attacks on merchant shipping has been in progress now almost a year, and it will no doubt be interesting to readers statistically inclined to follow out the course of the campaign in its various aspects. Unfortunately the figures cabled to colonial newspapers have not been quite accurate, because from time to time the Admiralty corrects its weekly returns by referring certain sinkings to weeks other than that in which thoy aro recorded. However,'the figures have been checked from the English files up to the end of November, and the table printed below p;ives the result, although the shape in which the returns were presented in the earlier .stages of the campaign still loaves some uncertainty. Tbe margin of error is nowhere great, even :i regard to the later unchecked figure -'.it occasionally it happens that four r ivo sinkings reported in "one week may sun. sequently have to bo referred to earlier weeks, and the accurate charting _ of the course of the campaign is impossible until the complete figures aro available. The figures, as has already boon explained i» this column, may bo dealt with in various ways, and the intorcsiecl reader who lias an hour or two to spare will draw a. groat deal of instruction by preparing diagrams, for instance, of the weekly losses, the monthly averages, the three-monthly averages, the relation between losses and total number of attacks, and so forth.

In the following table the columns show the week of the return, the number of arrivals of vessels of all nationalities at United Kingdom ports, the vessels cleared, the number of ships of 1600 ton s and over sunk by mine or submarine, the number of ships under 1(500 tons sunk, the fishing vessels sunk, and the number of ships reporting unsuccessful submarine attacks:—

Tf the monthly averages of sinkings arc examined it will be found that tho destruction of large ships proceeded very rapidly in the earlier, stages of tho campaign, for. the weekly average in March of last year was over sixteen, nnd in April it reached 2G.(i. It dropped to 18.75 in May, advanced slightly in June, and since then has shown a fairly regular and quite marked decline. November made an exceptional showing, mainly owing to one remarkable week, but January has thus far been almost as good, although the first week covered no fewer than eighteen large ships destroyed. The merit of the January figures, of course, lies in the fact that there have been three very good weeks in succession, the sinkings of large ships being six, six and nine, and of small ships two, two and sixThe last week has shown a slight revival of submarine activity. In tho first week thirty-two merchant craft wore attacked and twenty-one were sunk, in tho second thirteen were attacked and tight sunk, in the third fourteen were attacked and eight sunk, and in tho fourth week twenty-three were attacked and fifteen sunk. The sinkings, however, include ships that are destroyed by mines as well as those sunk by direct attack, so that the returns are not an entirely accurate guide to the measure of success attained by the submarines.

Experience goes to show that a period of comparative immunity is followed by a period of intense submarine activity. Possibly the explanation is that a considerable fleet of submarines is sent away from the German bases for a few weeks, and when they havo returned a smaller fleet is employed to continue the attacks, tho majority of the submersibles remaining in harbour to refit and to rest their crews. That is why it is unwise to' examine the returns week by week and to build theories on the individual figures. The better way is to average the sinkings over a period of weeks, and always to watch the proportion of ships sunk to ships attacked. If this course is followed the effect of the counter measures adopted by the Admiralty will bo more fully appreciated. It is evident that the submarines are being given fewer and fewer opportunities of attacking, and that their successes are consequently steadily diminishing- The elimination of the slower vessels would, of course, account in some degree for the smaller number of sinkings, but that is far from being the whole explanation, for tho protective measures have been systematised, and at the same time the counter-offensive against the submarines has been steadily de-

velopcd- It is as well to remember, moreover, that from the beginning of November to the ond of February the hours of daylight in the northern waters are limited, and consequently the submarines are bo an extent handicapped in their operations. The December figures may bo cited to show that in spite of this handicap a fair measure of success may lib attained, but it will probably be. found that in December the U-boats wero operating largely in the Mediterranean or at considerable distances from their bases.

Wet k. < 7 in 5 a 6 £ Feb. 25 . 2280 2261 16 (i 1G Mar. ■1 . 2528 2477 14 a ;> 11 .Mar. 11 . 1985 1939 12 % •i 3 12 Mar. 18 . 2528 2551 J 8 s 21 20 Mar. 25 . 2314 2433 18 7 10 11 Apl. 1 . : 2-231 2399 1G 15 5 22 Apl. S . 240G 23G7 15 •2 7 13 Apl. 15 . 2379 2331 J9 9 11 13 Apl. 22 . 2385 2G21 39 15 10 27 Apl. 29 . 271G 2G90 35 12 6 22 May 0 . 2374 2499 19 22 15 32 May It! . 25C8 255?. 19 5 3 15 May 20 . 26G4 2759 19 0 3 12 May 27 . 2710 2708 IS 2 2 22 Juno 3 . 2S0:i 2042 15 3 5 15 Juno 10 . 2767 2 S 22 24 10 0 20 June .17 . 2397 2!)23 25 a — 31 Juno 24 . 287 G 2923 20 (i — 15 July1 . .2745 2S4C 18 5 11 12 July a . 2898 2798 13 :; fi 10 July 15 . 2828 2920 15 4 8 11 July 22 . 2791 2791 19 3 1 15 July 20 . 2747 277G '18 3 — G Aug'. 5 . 2673 279G 20 . 3 — 12 Aug. '12 . 2770 26GG 1 1 1 3 9 An™. 19 . 2838 27.64 11 4 0 14 Aug. 26 . 2629 2680 IS 4 — 4 Sept 2 . 2384 2132 20 5 — 7 Sept 9 . 2744 2808 11 11 4 10 Sept Hi . 2G95 2737 9 11 1 11 Sept 23 . 2775 2091 12 2 2 8 Sept 3(1 . 2680 2742 !) 0 — 9 Oct. 7 . 2519 2632 13 2 5 ■t Oct. 14 . 2124 2094 14 5 — ( Oct, 21 . 2G48 2G89 18 8 — 7 Oct. 28 . 2285 2321 13 4 — 1 Nov. ■1 . 2384 2379 6 3 — 3 Nov. U . 2i2'; 2307 1 5 — 5 Nov. IS . 2531 2463 11 7 — 3 Nov. 24 . 2058 2122 13 7 — R Dec-. 1 . 2174 2133 13 1 4 7 Dec. s ■ . 242G 23 B 4 14 7 — 11 Dec. 15 . 2461 2199 14 3 — 11 Deo. 22 . 2311 2160 11 1 1 12 Poo. 29 . 2111 2074 18 3 — 8 J an. 5 /. 2085 2144 18 3 4 11 Jan. 12 ' . 2106 2184 6 o o 5 Jan. !9 . 2255 2212 6 2 — fi Jan. 26 . 2852 2309 9 6 1 8