WAR NOTES.

Lyttelton Times, Volume CXVII, Issue 17329, 18 November 1916, Page 10

WAR NOTES.

GERMANY'S LAST HOPE. [From Our, Corruspondest,] LONDON, September 21. It needs very little imagination and not much expert military knowledge to realise tho stupendous nature of the terrible international duel now at 'ts desperate crisis on the Western front in France. After ten weeks of fierce methodical pushing forward against the German trench lines on the Somme sector, carefully chosen as a vital point in the German army’s siege armour, the French and British have launched a still more furious and ambitious assault. It is now a grim and thrilling contest for iimo. The Allies are striking formidably, and with some novel mechanism of modern military equipment. The-Germans are using every available man and every Conceivable artifice to avert eiher a complete debacle or a momentary retreat, and, while yielding some important ground, to cling on to their present main' lines ’winter comes. ' ' f ' - : There is no possible doubt about the magnitude of the issue at stake. If the Allies can crumple up the German main lines, either forcing open fighting, in which the enemy would now be hopelessly outmatched, or compelling a main retreat to new positions far in rear of the old ones, their military success would bo no greater than its political consequences. 1 Germany can go on only, so long as tho German nation still hopes to achieve the modified victory of an inconclusive peace. Once that hope is proved to be an illusion, and tno German -war lords cannot hold out any longer the reasonable prospect of being able to outlast the Allies’ economic resources, .tho game is up so far'as Berlin is concerned. At present all Germany’s energy is fixed in a last desperate endeavour “ to play out time.” If nothing absolutely convincing has resulted from our present push by the time that winter paralyses all big operations, and the German legions can still settle down for another six months pretty much where they were at the outset of this summer’s active campaign, Germany will dig in again on the West, prepare some new spectacular coup for tho East, and exert every artifice to sway the Allies to an early peace in the spring. THE NEW SITUATION. The question is—can Germany do itP To a certain extent time and the weather may be said to be on her side now. For good and sufficient reasons, which were quite unavoidable, our joint offensive in the West was late in starting. Two if net three valuable months of good campaigning weather were lost at tho beginning of the summer. It is betraying no secret now to confess that neither the French nor ourselves were in the matter of essential equipment quite ready for an active and serious offensive last, July. It was originally proposed not to make a big move until, among other things that had bettor not bo mentioned yet, we were equipped with the new' heavily armed and heavily armoured monster war motors which have-just been figuring in the last push. ' " These elephantine vehicles are a British invention, and, I hear, a naval one. The notion is as old as Pompe’y’s elephants. These juggernauts can span any trench in their stride, or even walk over the ruined masonry of a shelled village. They carry a considerable naval brigade ’crew of inside passengers, a formidable gun and several quick-firing weapons, and It- is claimed teat nothing short of a nine-inch high explosive shell could really knock them out of time. The difficulty of hitting an object which moves at • a rate ot six or eight miles an hour across country’ with a heavy gun fired from a' distant position, is obvious. This new devioe is the most- effcctfre reply to the German machine-gun redoubt. It should make things much easier for our intrepid infantry, who have felt the want tif something to give them such covering protection as the famous 76’s give their French comrades. These marvellous engines of war were not ready last- July. But the German onslaught on Verdun, perhaos more on its political than its purely military aspect, compelled energetio counter-action on our part, and so the joint Fra neo-British offensive on tho Somme was duly launched on July 1, without waiting for anything or anybody. A BRILLIANT 00-OFERATION. Besides which, it was eminently desirable. when Brussiloff’s astonishing successes against the Austrian lines in the East developed so notebly, to give the Germans full occupation for their fighting reserves in the West. The most satisfactory and convincing, feature .of this year’s campaigning has indeed, been the clear, evidence of close co-operation between all the Allied armies in the field. And the very material successes which have even so far crowned our joint efforts in the East and the West, have undoubtedly been largely due to the fact that, for the first time since the war came upon us, the enemy has been unable to any appreciable or conclusive extent to reinforce one theatre of the struggle by transferring large forces from another. In other words, tho great advantage possessed, by tbe Odntral Empire of interior lines of strategy has been nullified entirely by a prompt and well-timed simultaneity of effort by the Entente Allies. • • How. fax- tlie Allies have reached the maximum of their efforts East and West for the present summer, or, how far they may still be able to press and extend their growing advantages, i»raains still to see. Some military men speak confidently of active offensive operations on a full scale continuing well in,to the late autumn, or even into early winter. Others expect to see operations tail off and quieten down much earlier. Probably the question depends to a large extent on the degree of suocoss achieve! by the present big manoeuvres. It would be too foolish for words to cry halt, except in the face of absolute necessity, just on the eve of Teaping the strategic reward of our present desperate fighting. . THE OUTLOOK TO-DAY. If we are within positive reach of open, fighting in the West, after blasting our way through three successive German fortress lines, we must press on so long as an active offensive is a military possibility. Otherwise we give the enemy a respite which will enable him t oconstruct lines of almost equally formidable extent and character. Of a certainty we shall not do that if it can be avoided. And there is also to be considered the pending developments in the East. Rumania certainly did not enter* the lists with any-notion of at once settling down to a quiescent winter campaign.. The outlook is summed up in this way by the shrewdest and most .dependable military .opinion in London. In the first place, we have jointly demonstrated, t-ne Russians in the East and the Franco-Brit-ish in the West ; that the enemy’s stalemate is not, invincible, but far. from it- That is one great, success to us from all points of view* from our own. the enemy’.s and the neutral? We have admittedly created a general conviction which Germany already begins to share, that, the Allies must, eventually win the war. To that, extent the continued prophecies about an early peace really nave some solid foundations of fact. But there is more than that in it- Even though an exceptionally bad winter, and our unavoidably late start, compel the cessation of any big offensive operations, the Allies hare a- fine prospect. In the East the Russians grow more formidable, because better armed and equipped, with every month that passes. Rumania has 'drawn her sworn on cyr side, and Bulgaria and Turkey are, politically as well as economically, actually in extremis. Austria can never play more than a feebly defensive role in this war-

henceforth. And Germany has incur-' red further gigantic casualties without any. favourable decision,, add must, in any case await a fresh onslaught nowa spring by still more overwhelming Allied forces, jumping eff from muqh mors favourable strategic [ positions ( ’ than’ those ‘ which were the disjidvantgoou* points d’appui of this, summer’s off oh- ' sive. V . •-{ ; OUR SUCCESSES SO'FAR. T\It is worth while contrasting the results of our offensive in the West with those of the enemy’s last desperate offensive against Verdun. In five months, at a carefully estimated cost of half a million casualties, the German ad- „ vanced their lines about eight miles on a twelve-mile front-, capturing about 6000 prisoners and perhaps a dozen considerable guns. In ten weeks the Allies on the Somme have advanced about twice as far on three times tbe front, a.t a cost not half that paid bythe Germans at Verdun, capturing over 60,000 prisoners over 150 considerable guns, and machines-guns literally by tens of-' scores. Tho comparisoh is really very significant, and we may still hope for further good news- . There am famous fighting corps which have not been heard of m the present offensive, which lias been, largely.an affray, of the newer Kitchener Army, and a most glorious debut too.. -It- is conceivable that we and the Germans may yet have thrilling word of these reserve 'oltjer forces, and perhaps where least expected. In fact, the present situation is full of exciting dramatic and vastly important possibilities. ..j **