GERMANY’S SUPPLIES.

Lyttelton Times, Volume CXVII, Issue 17263, 2 September 1916, Page 8

GERMANY’S SUPPLIES.

Tun economic factor in war is difficult to assess, and for that reason most of the publicists are content either to ignore it or to dismiss it in vague tcims. When an observer docs attempt to get to grip with tho facts, therefore, his views and conclusions aro of special interest. A Rotterdam resident, whose knowledge of the conditions in Germany is said to he quit© up to date, has given the correspondent of the “New York World ’’ an unusually precise account of tho position there in regard to food supplies. Ho divides ‘the Gorman population into four classes —the agricultural, of 20,000,000, /raising its own food supplies, and consequently sufficiently led; soldiers, officials and workers under the State, numbering 15,000,000, also well supplied; the rich, numbering 5,000,000, who aro able to buy tho supplies they need, even at tho present high prices; and the rest of tho population, numbering 25,000,000, on whem the real burden of scarcity must fall. The fourth class, he says, is subsisting on an average food ration of r 2200 calories a day, tho accepted

dietetic minimum being 2400, and the average British consumption reaching 4500. We were told tho other day that Gormany this year had an abundant. harvest, rendering her independent of the Rumanian supply, and this is the opinion, also, of the neutral. Tho critical factor, however, is not grain, but 6 meat. A census of cattle was taken in Germany in April, and it was found that the supply had declined during tho war period from 23,500,000 head to 19,800,000 head. Rather more than five million head were available for consumption, but as a largo proportion consisted of calves, tho maximum food value could not bo attached to them. Moreover, there has been an enormous slaughter of pigs, partly because of high prices but chiefly because of the shortage of fodder. Tho neutral declares that the Germans can hold out for another twelve months, provided they kill everything but breeding stock, but. unless that heroic sacrifice is made the nation will be unable to find tho necessary fat and protein to supply the minimum needs; and when tho supply is exhausted tho economio debacle must assuredly follow. Even if Germany made peaco this year it would tako her four years to restore'tho cattlo to tho normal number, and during that period tho total meat supply of tho people would have to be imported. As tho world cannot meet such a demand, and as there are nob the ships to carry it, the possibility of an early recovery is out of tho question. Germany has to find five million cattle and tho equivalent of four million pigs per annum. Recovery can therefore be only a gradual process at best, and that is why sane people nre beginning ta think very seriously of the after-war problem. When tho inquiry is extended from the food problem to tile industrial -problem the neutral's conclusions are even more disturbing from the enemy’s point of view : Gormany is dry of raw materials, except for toys, aniline dyes and some drugs. Theso are tlie only things she can export at once after the war. Before she can manufacture anything Gormany. must get the raw material. She lias no copper, lead or other base metals needed for her iron .and steel manufactures. She must import all these. She will absolutely require to import 200,000 tons of manganese, copper, zinc and other things before she can start her manufactures in this department alone. It is tho sumo with her textile trades. They have no wool, they can’t get any cotton, and they can’t make textiles until they import and pay for theso raw materials. They can’t pay until they export manufactures. That’s Germany's position. If she could get peaco with this coming harvest it would save her importing 5,000,000 tons of cereals, that is all. The other more insoluble problems will remain. If tho war goes on for another year and then she makes peace, Germany will be totally and absolutely smashed economically. The raw material she will requiro must run into large sums—and where is she to get money or its equivalent in manufactured goods for export? She can’t do it. ,Sho can get nothing from Austria. From the military point she must collapse in a year from now, hut even if she got peaco to-morrow she would collapse economically all the same.

The Butch observer states that the German Chancellor is at the head of a “futurist” party, which has its eyes on the after-war prospects, but the Chancellor is powerless, because the military group is quite dominant. There is no idea of a revolution to get rid of militarism, because what we regard as militarism is now part of the German national life, and if the present system of government were overthrown it would simply be replaced by another of the same kind. In 'the opinion of this observer the Allies have only to “ sit tight ” for another year, and they will have Germany at their mercy. But he doubts whether a win through economio exhaustion would be sufficient, since it would leave the military prestige of the Germans unaffected, and an unshattcred military prestigo would he an asset of enormous value if tho military group determined on fresh enterprises. “The assertion of tho military superiority of the Allies, therefore, is,” be concludes, “essential to achieving continued peace.”