MR CLEMENT WRAGGE’S LECTURES.

Lyttelton Times, Volume CXVII, Issue 17095, 18 February 1916, Page 8

MR CLEMENT WRAGGE’S LECTURES.

WEATHER FORECASTING. At the Choral Hall last evening Mr Clement Wragge delivered a lecture on “ Weather Forecasting and the Romance of the Atmosphere.” There was a fair attendance. The study of meteorology should be divided into four parts, said Mr Wragge, namely, (1) climatology, or the peculiarity of local .climates; (2) seasonable or long-range weather forecasting, that is forecasting far ahead ; (3) ordinary, or daily and weekly forecasting; and' (4) ocean meteorology and ocean currents. The last portion he would not touch upon in his' discourse. The man who would become a successful agriculturist, pastoralist, or fruit grower should study local climates, said the lecturer. The climatology of the hills, the valleys, the river areas and the seaside all varied. These should he examined scientifically if the road to success were to be trodden) He had devoted thjrty-five years of his life to the close study of meteorology, and had demonstrated its value to men engaged in all manner of industries. He had given the mariner valuable advice besides the landsman. A farmer about to start- in a new locality would be well-advised to consult a meteorological expert concerning local conditions, so that the classes ot sheep best suited to the conditions prevailing in the district could be chosen for his farm. Some men Succeeded only after years of experience, others failed. Yet all might have started alight if at the outset expert meteorological advice had been sought and local Climatic conditions studied. To have a beautiful garden one should consider the local climate. He had chosen and established his home in Queensland on what people lacking knowledge had considered barren ground; he fcas laughed at. But the scene had been changed. He knew’ his climate and he knew the soil. He had cultivated deeply—that was one of the secrets of success—and lie had chpsen plants, trees, fruits and garden products from districts which he knew from his .study of climatology would ■ thrive and flourish at his Queensland home. As proof of this Mr Wragge showed pictures of the plot before cultivation and a few years later. The transformation was remarkable. A waste had been changed into a place of beauty aiid plenty. Ho was going through a similar experience at his residence at Birkenhead, Auckland. There he had started on a . bare plot, had prepared the soil, and had stocked it judiciously, knowung from his study of climatology that he could not fail. The workers of the soil of this, country might all benefit in their careers if they would take his advice. .. .

Air Wragge gave a lengthy dissertation on weather forecasting, and dwelt on the influence of the s.un in climatic changes. The sun was a body of moods, changeable in its disposition, hence atmospheric changes. Scientifically speaking, all human nature responded to atmospheric changes, which accounted for all our ills. The ether waves controlled the seasons. An illustration of the waves was projected on the lantern screen. These waves covered the 93.000,000 miles between the sun and the earth in eight minutes and a half. Mr Wragge explained briefly the effects -of sunspots. At the maximum period of these sunspots droughts were experienced in the Northern Hemisphere and copious rains and good seasons in the Southern Hemisphere, while the opposite was the case when, the sunspots were at ther minimum period. Mr Wragge said that he had commenced to forecast the seasons during 1901. but bis ability in that direction had been doubted. He claimed to have greater knowledge than his critics, however. Meteorology was a science. He had made successful forecasts in Australia. For 1001 and 1902 lie had predicted a drought period, for 1903 improved conditions, tor tlm years 1903 to 10(19 good seasons, for 1910-1911 not so good, a falling awav. and for 1912IDI l bad seasons. His forecasts had proved correct. He claimed 97 per cent of accuracy with bis Australia workfl„ ] inr | predicted improved conditions* to 1020. The improvement would not ho sudden, but pf a gradual order. New Zealand being insular was not subject to extremes in (be seasons. Rut the Dominion responded to astyo-climato-logical influences in a modified way. He had warned the Hawke’s Bay and Wairarapa districts of last year's droughts, and of an improvement during 191.1 in fho.se districts. Mr Wragge. snfil that the minimum period of the sunspots had b«en passed and climatic conditions in New Zealand would improve graduallv. Good seasons were coming. Already Canterbury was experiencing the change, and copious* rains had cooled the drought parched surface of the great plains. Mr Wragge referred to many other matters concerning meteorology, and remarked incidentally that he considered it a great mistake, from that point of view, tint the wireless telegraph station on Macquarie Island had been shut down. Tie looked forward to the time when Nelson Observatory would be completed for then the country would benefit considerably in the mat* ter of weather forecasting. In concluding bis address, Mr Wragge said that while astronomy was the grandest and noblest of sciences meteorology was the more practical. At the close of the lecture an exhibition of radium was' given. To-night Mr Wragge will give the last hut one of his interesting lectures at the Choral Hall. The subject chosen is the “ Immortal Skies,” and the. lecturer win show bow it is possible for any intelligent boy who takes; an interest in astronomy to rise to the position of a. Sir Robert. Ball. The views which will b» shown of the stars, sun, moon and planets are said to be exquisite. Those who attend are advised to bring opera glasses, as bv such means the beautiful detail of the astronomical photographs may be clearly seen.