NOTES ON THE WAR.

Lyttelton Times, Volume CXV, Issue 16744, 28 December 1914, Page 7

NOTES ON THE WAR.

THE LAND CAMPAIGNS.

'The forward movement of the Allies is progressing steadily in France, but it seems to have been checked to some extent in Flanders, and probably there is some truth in the story that all available troops have been sent from Belgian posts to the front. The Allies ittacks are so energetic and so sustained that it is impossible to imagine the Germans treating them with indifference, and it is a safe inference that nil the reserves have now been sent either to the western front or the eastern. So little information is given out concerning the operations that the military writers attached to the London newspapers are not able to help their readers a great deal in tho elucidation of tho position, but one of them, a contributor to a weekly journal, made the wise observation a couple of months ago that the struggle in France would continue on its (fid lines until the Allies could make an average advance of a. mile a day at some important point. When that happened the whole face of the battle would be changed in the course of ten days or a fortnight.

At no point of late has the advance averaged anything like a mile a day, but the development of tho operations recently has been so favourable that an important attack by concentrated forces may well come in the very near future. The Germans are said to be strengthening their lines iu Flanders, and there is evidence that big forces have been massed "in the Somme region, to prevent an advance on Perorine or St Quentin. It is hinted, too, thait fresh troops have lately been transferred to the Perthes-Mesnil front, <vhere the Allies have fnade a, notable advance. Right through the struggle in France the Germans have made good use of the railways in order to carry reinforcements to threatened points. A threatening advance of tho Allies occurred in the Argonno district, and at onoe big bodies of the enemy, were hurried to the area, and according to the Berlin report most of tho ground lost was speedily recovered. The same thing happened in Alsace recently and in the Vosges. That the French had to give ground south-east of St Die appears certain, but apparently they have been able to hold their positions in Alsace. It may be vtaken for granted that the success of the Allies at Mesnil during the last few days will lead te the massing of German reinforcements there. Simultaneously the Allies have been attacking vigorously north-west of Yerdun. &

On© of these local affairs will somo day develop into a big battle for important stakes, but at present it is impossible say that General Joffre is contemplating a. supreme effort at any point. It probably'took the Germans a. fortnight to prepare for their grand assault on Ypres, and less information will be allowed "to leak out concerning French preparations of the same kind. The natural inference is that .the big attack, when it comes, will be somewhere on the Allies' left, preferably between Roye and the sea, .but the leader need expect no warning of such a development. Indeed, the attack may not be easily recognisable when it does come, because tho official reports do not vary their tone, whether the operations are big or little. The struggle in Poland does not appear to have developed at all definitely. The opposing forces are said to be entrenched on the Baura, and there are picturesque stories of fighting across the river which seem to indicate that the Russian position is a purely defensive ono. Making all allowance for the weather conditions, which are likely to be seriously impeding the movements of the troops, it is proper to inquire when the reputed Russian superiority in numbers is going to assert itself. The Germans, it may be taken for granted, have endeavoured to occupy a position in which their flanks will bo well protected by rivers, and in the southern area particularly, this protection may be an insuperable obstacle for the Russians. There are deep gorges to be negotiated, and a stream that is not . worth indicating on tho average map may be held by a handful of men with field guns against ten thousand. Still, if the Russians had in the field the enormous numbers credited to them ■they should be able to find an early solution of the battle problem. The truth probably is that the Russian forces are scattered along an enormous front and that it is difficult to concentrate an overwhelming force at any ono point. The German possession of a highly organised railway system compels the Russians to hold an extra strength of men on the East Prussian front. The raid in the Mlawa district undoubtedly drew a considerable force from the Vistula again, and whereas the Germans could easily transfer half their troops from Soldau to Thorn and down to Lowicz, the Russians could not venture on a similar transfer until they were sure of tho position in the north. Then the Russians are probably using in Galicia a force considerably greater than tho Austrian army opposed to them. This superiority in numbers is bound to produce results in the long run, but operations over such a long front must easily absorb two million men.

There have been all sorts of calculations concerning the German losses, and a .recent estimate- puts them at two millions. Mr Hilairo Bclloc nearly two months ago estimated them at a million and a half. Unfortunately no complete lists have been published. In the early stages of the war the lists were fairly complete, and the first fifty showed: Dead, 36,531 (2385 officers); wounded, 159,165 (5327 officers); missing, 55,522. By the end of October the admitted losses had increased to threequarters of a million, not including the Bavarian, Saxon and Wurteniburg lists, which are issued separately. At a conservative estimate the German losses in the first three months jrf tbo war had exceeded a million. Adding the'\en6rmous losses in Flanders, par-tictjf-rly in the Ypres fighting, the huge of men at La Bassee, Arras and Chaulnes, on the Aisne, in the Champagne and Argonno countries and beyond Verdun, it does not appear out of the way to double the earlier estimate for the western theatre. As for the eastern, there is the tale of all the recent fighting in Poland to be added. The Russians claim to have more than 130,000 German prisoners, and if the estimate of a military expert can be accepted, the killed and wounded in modern warfare will rarely be less than five times the number of prisoners. This would mean a German loss of nearly 800,000 against the Russians. All gnch estimates, however, are largely speculative.