THE ENGLISH CROP OF 1874.

Lyttelton Times, Volume XLII, Issue 4326, 23 December 1874, Page 3

THE ENGLISH CROP OF 1874.

The following'letter Appear*’in'the Time* of Oct. 30:—Sir, —We hare now sufficient data to enable us to come to a safe conclusion as to whether or not the wheat orop of this year is under-or Orer an average.- But what it an average, crop ? In regard tpwheat, 30 bushels aniacrea is the rate usually adopted ; but it is only an .assumption, based Upon indiridual observation and experience over very limited areas. To arrive at a souhdsolutioa, of the question, I hare taken the areas under wheat in each county in England, multiplied Iffiem by thegiherafiy-adhiitted normal rate of produce of eaoh. county respectively, and the aggregate number .of bushels thus obtained, divided by the number of acres to which, they fh®appisoaphour present data admit'of to a satisfactory answer to the questidri®What is an average crop?”.and, thbs tested, it turns out to be 291-lO bushels an acre. ’ -Takingthe-oountiesin-sucoession-aecording to their.’ respective rates of ..produce, they rad Seas under Kent, 33f bushel* : peraore; tincoln andHaftti. Nerkshlih, ‘3ri; v Norfolk;® Oxford,' gbire, and Middlesex; $1; J ' Yorkshire, Notts, Warwick; Worcester, Bedford, aha Cheshire, 30; Hants- and'Staffordshire.ZOf; Bucks, Wilts,- Dorset, Somerset, Derby; Cumberland ,apd Monm|outbshire,29; Suffolk, 28id;, Herts,, SStiS . Burreyi : Gloupeeter, Wesimwrelahd,. 28;’Hereford and Northumberland; 27 ; 1 Shropshire and •Ddrham,'’26; Cof nWU/.’SBj. anO| lietly,' Devonshire, 20 bushels ian acre. m ; , • Xbe.aMa.tbus embraced is 3,391,440 acres,

the obWoed 98,700,978 bushels, agd the irerwe iate of produce, as! *}n*l7 stated, 2f il)' bheWle per acre.* Adding /Walesa with n 117,869: acres, at 27* buetoU an acre, the aTOTige i* brought down; to ® 1-3( j bushel* j l ' ini A Scotland, isritfa i 120,991 acres, ,at 29 bu»hele,- the average! remains the same—that hr, 29T-80bushelB per acre fop Of eat Britain. *■ ' ' 1 ' Xwhina'hfcethis year 189,(592 ao*ekfi|n&er' pstimated at 25 bushels an acre; the | Islands,l7p3acres,at 24bushels; making a' total for'the United Kingdom 0f'3,821,655 i acres, an average/produce at the rate of 28! 10-12 bushels pef here, and an aggregate yield | of ,13,773,881 qrs. But, as I estimate the crop of this year at two "bushels an acre abov| an average, as stated in my letter iuyour columns of the 27th, of Ju1y—955,414 quarters have to be added to the above ,quaptity, making a total; of. 14,729,295 quarters. Mr Lawea, in your columns on the 24th ult., estimates the produce of this year at the rate of 29} bushels'; Mr Kains-Jackson, on the 29th, estimates the aggregate produce at 14 to 15million quarters, which is atthe rate of 31 bushels an acre; MrUairct, oh the 15th ult., estimates the crop at 14 million quarters equal to a fraction over 29 bushels an acre; and Mr James Sanderson, on the same date, states the crop to be 7 per cent below an average, or at the rate of 27 940 bushels per acre, and the qtlli, million quarters. Leaving this estimate out of the calculation, as entirely at variance with all the others, and with the returns obtained through ,the Agricultural Gazette , which show the following figures—

No. of Over Under Tears. Eeturns. Acreage, Average. Average, 1872 ... 454 ... 78 ... 22 ... 355 1873 ... 445 ... 84 ... 17 ... 344 1874... 273 ... 83 ... 183 ... 7 we arrive at the conclusion that the, wheat crop of this year is over an average, whatever that average may be decided to be. , Taking the estimates as already stated, they stand thus : My own, 30 10-12; Mr LaWes, 29 3-12 ;' Mr Kains-Jackson’s, 31; Mr Caird’s, 29. We have an average Of 30 bushels an acre, and a product of 14,338,705 quarters. This estimate, believe, will turn out to be somewhat under the outcome of the crop, because the result of thrashing is almost everywhere exceedibg the farmers’ expectations. Bat this cannot be arrived at until the end of the cereal year, when the amount of home deliveries and foreign importations will have been ascertained. The extra earliness of the harvest this year, by at least a fortnight, favoured consumers to the extent' of a million quarters of wheat and three millions in money; but if the harvest of 1875 happens to be a fortnight later'than usual, the period of consumption for 1874-5 will extend to thirteen months.

Assuming, however, that the consuming period only extends over the usual 12 months, and not claiming any additional quantity for the extra weight over the standard of 60| Jib per bushel for this year’s crop, the account would stand as follows Nine months’ consumption from the. Ist,of‘September to the 31st of May, at 2 l-10th million quarters per month—lß 9-lOths; million quarters? three months, from the Ist of June to the 31st of August, at 1 7-10tha—5 J-lOjth million quarters; we have to provide 24 million quarters ; and deducting the home produce, os'above estimated, in round numbers at 14 million quarters, we have 10 million; quarters ,to provide from foreign sources.

I have ventured to estimate the home consumption at 24'million quarters, because it is ton years since it was generally admitted to be 22 millions, and we . have increased a million in numbers since that time.

Under any circumstances the hob-producing consumers in this country, as Mr Caird has already pointed out, from great fall in the price *of wheat, will save ineariy £20,000,000, and the country at large will have to rejoice in having * Crop of its own, which will save it, at least, £ls,ooo,qoo'in payment of foreign wheat. *- • •

. {Hie good wed bed secured for the 1875, almost insures its success j 7 and from the immense extent of clover and turnip failures, this- season* the area being sown with wheat is unusually' large—probably 4,000,000 acres—as I anticipate it would have been this year. <> Before closing this letter I would venture to suggest the policy of sowing more barley —of the finer kinds, of which, we have almost an English monopoly—especially after Wheat on the heavier soils. ; Last year I knew of many instances Where it produced £l9. an acre, when wheat on the same sarms did not produce £7. Even this year- an extra crop of wheat will hot realise more money than an average crop of barley, Although this will long be remembered as the year of wheat, potatoes, and the comet. I am, Sir, your obedient servant, , Thos. C. Scott. 19, King’s Arms yard, Moorgale street, 8.u., Oct, 27.

N GAEtrAWAH i A.— A correspondent: of the Otago Guardian, recently writing . frpm Ngaruawahia sajaOpr mill isstUl grinding wheat from Canterbury, which, certainly does not speak i well for the energies of the settlers in l the Waikato districts. The potatoes we eat come from Australia, and oats (8s 6d per bushel) from the South Island.”' The occasion of this state of affairs is simply Want of cheap carriage. If' thousands of acres of potatoes, oats, and wheat were grown there to-morrow, they would be worthless, inasmuch as their'transit by the . road would cost as much as they were worth in this market/