MUTUAL TRADE

King Country Chronicle, Volume XXVIII, Issue 4527, 5 April 1934, Page 3

MUTUAL TRADE

AMERICA AND BRITAIN. THE CHANCES OF REVIVAL. BARRIER OF EXCHANGE. Great Britain "is really more concerned with developments in Washington than in Geneva," a high British official told the writer in the course of a general conversation including both the completion of President Roosevelt's first year in the White House and Captain Anthony Eden's return from his disarmament tour of European capitals, says Charles A. Selden in an article in the New York Times.

"As bitterly as we regret the collapse of the disarmament efforts," said the official, "I am sure the failure of President Roosevelt's experiments would be a far greater blow to the world.

"My point is this: -The Geneva Conference is concerned entirely with world quarrels and the possibility of making them less deadly. President Roosevelt is toying to remove the economic distresses which make us all resentful, suspicious, irritable, and in a perpetual mood for quarrelling. If he succeeds, other countries will benefit. Peace is easier with prosperity than with such industrial and commercial conditions as are now prevailing." That appraisal of the relative significance of Washington and Geneva would probably be questioned by British pacifists, but there is no doubt about the tremendous interest of the British people in the RooseveU Administration. )It is byi no means confined to political and financial groups. Both Susan Lawrence and H. K. Ratcliffe, who have recently returned from the United States have addressed crowded meetings. Their alertly listening and questioning audiences of Britain's "forgotten men" were typical of the popular eagerness in Great Britain to know what is happening in the United States.

Looking Abroad.

This interest is materially increasing on the eve of Mr. Roosevelt's first anniversary in the White House because of recent dispatches from the United States to the effect that now, after devoting twelve months to domestic problems, the President is about to look abroad with a view to negotiating agreements with foreign countries for increased trade. At first glance the present opportunity for such negotiations between Great Britain and the United States is not particularly promising. The attitude of the British Board of Trade at the moment is that this country imposes no duty on cotton imports and very little on wheat, so what advantages not already existing on these two staple exports of the American farmer could Britain concede?

The question is fairer with reference to cotton than to wheat. For example, last year about 25 per cent, of the United Kingdom's wheat imports came from 'non-British countries, but the United States got virtually none of this business. The total value of wheat imports was £31,000,000. Three-fourths of this came from Canada and Australia, but the combined value of Russian and Argentine wheat sent here was £7,500,000. Imports from the United States reached ordy the negligible figure of £1382. There is a chance of negotiation there on the wheat item. Britain must import the bulk of this grain from her Dominions, but there is no reason why the United States should not have a share of the trade with other countries outside the British Empire.

Britain's Method.

Something might be done with oats, on which there is now a prohibitive duty, chiefly for the benefit of the Scottish farmers.

The question resolves itself into this: After taking into account all restrictions imposed on British trade by the Ottawa agreements and special trade treaties negotiated with other countries since the Ottawa Conference, what leeway is there left for arrangements with the United States?

As one member of Parliament put it, "If America is going to begin to negotiate special trade treaties with other countries, it is rather a feather in the British cap, because that has been our method for the last two years.

"The trouble is that the United States is coming to the party rather late. There isn't so much for her to get as there would have been before Ottawa. However, the two countries can find some mutual advantages if they will try hard enough."

There are technical obstacles to early operations. In the first place, these operations require long, laborious discussions by tariff experts, and the personnel for carrying them on is limited.

Britain is already on the eve of such negotiations with France and Poland, and discussions are still in progress with the Baltic countries.

However, if the richest tradingnation in the world should make a direct approach to do business with London, it is not likely that lesser affairs would be allowed to intervene for long. A more serious obstacle is the uncertainty of the rate of exchange. It is difficult to imagine the British Government entering into any new commercial arrangement with the United States without some understanding concerning dollar and pound stabilisation.

Despite exchange fluctuations and other difficulties, trade between the two countries improved last year, with Britain reaping the greater ad-

vantage. For example, British exports to the United States in 1933 were 114,000,000 dollars, an increase of 40,000,000 dollars over 1932. British imports from the United States were 284,000,000 dollars, an increase of ordy 2,000,000 dollars. These totals are estimated, the exact figures for the first eleven months show the same proportions. The increase in British exports was chiefly in tin and liquor.

Even without any special agreement, experts in this country anticipate an improvement in 1934. Their guess is that the United States will export to Britain 300,000,000 dollars' worth, and will receive about 125,000,000 dollars' worth of goods. The ratio that Britain would desire is three to one—that is, a total of 250,000,000 dollars in exports and 750,000,000 dollars in imports from the United States.