A REVIEW

Hokitika Guardian, 14 September 1940, Page 6

A REVIEW

AVAR’S FIRST LAP

AND ITS FUTURE TRENDS

(Thomas Dunlmbin in a Sydney paper).

U Over a year ago, Herr Hitler put on his old war tunic. Ho would •not, take it off, he said, until the wai

hwas over. i-i.-ylt is to he hoped that it is of . good wool and not ol Ersatz ‘material. We are faced, apparently, with at least two more years of war. ;t- Within a month of tlie invasion .of Poland on September 1, 19119, it was announced' that the British -Government was preparing for a three • years’ war. That it still! holds to that seliodukV is suggested by Mr Chure,hill's reiparks recently about .■■British offensives in 1941 and 1942. The same time-table is the basis isCjf tlic, Australian Government’s war 1 measures. Plans have been made to carry on the war till tlie middle of 19-12. They may have to he extended. We are told now that Germany cannot stand a long war /just as many exports once told us that sho could not stand a short one. ; British casualties for the first year of the war; are under 100,000, of whom most are wounded or prisoners. -The- number of dead is far smaller than that of. one battle in the 19141918 war. German lqs t ses have been heavier,; yet small iff' comparison with .tW enemy’s strength. In the lasD war, when there were fewer of them, we, killed over 3,000,000 Germans. When it was all over Foch said that the trouble was that there still 'millions too many of them. It has to be kept in mind that, fiom our point of view, the actual fighting in the present war has occupied less than half of the first year. When the Nazis fell upon Roland a year ago the Allies stood to arms, hut it was impossible to give any real aid to the victim, which was beaten flat in less than a month. There followed over six months of uneasy waiting. , ...... ..... ...... • ' Except for . the sea, where Nazi Üboats sank at sight in desperate lint: vain . efforts 'to cut off -supplies to Britain, ; we,,.. s seemed to he hack in that/ 'thifee years’ period of

undeclared war—from 1936 to 1939. . The Allies, ’applied a naval blockade. It was not till December 5, after over three months of war, that the export of German woods' through neutral countries was blocked. , For another three months Italian vessels were . ..allowed to. carry German coal from Rotterdam to Italy. •Even after the tightening of the blockade in March, 194 Q, when the exppj;t„, of . German Jcoal bjy sea tip Italy was stopped, all was quiet on the Western Front. Hitler and (Mussolini met at Brennero on March 13. There was no outbreak of war. . Convinced that Germany would,, go quietly, hoping once again ' for peace in our time, Air Chamber- , lain announced • on. April 4, 1940 after giving the, Dictators,.tlir.ee weeks to declare tljeij*’ hand, that .Hitler* hade niissed thy bus. Once again, as -at Munich, Air Chamberlain put his trust in Mussolini. , ' ■ , ■His view was supported on April 7 jhy Sir Kingsley Wood, who announed that we had. caught up to Germany in the air. While British leaders wore thus reassuring us they left the initiative to Germany,-confident that she was in no position to take it. On April 9 the Nazis invaded Nor- ( way and Denmark. I A week later Air Chamberlain | described the invasion of Norway as the Nazis greatest miscalculation. . Unhappily it was Mr Chamberlain who miscalculated. As Commander Bowles, R.N., M.P., a Naval Intelligence officer, put it, a dead hand was laid on British operations in Norway. ! The struggle for Norway, if you caii call it that, showed wluit. a good thing it was that tlie projected expedition of British troops to Finland never came off. With the Norwegian campaign as. a guide, the Nazis launched on Alay 10 the invasion of the west. In this all was lost save honour. Dunkirk was magnificent, hut, ns the realistic Air Churchill put it. you do not win a war by evacuations. Less than six weeks brought France to surrender on June 21. Eleven days before that, skulking Alussolini decided that it was reasonably safe to enter the war. With France out only two great Powers (if you call Italy a great Power) and most- of a thud aie still 'at war. and Italy are matched with the British Empire, minus Eire. Three great Powers and all the lesser non-european ones, with the half-exception of Egypt, are neutralIt is, in fact, not half a world

war. As optimists assert, the fall of France has certainly left Britain free of Continental engagements. Portugal is still her ally, hut not a fighting one. Tlie British guarantee to Greece is one-sided.

So is that to Rumania, which still persists in theory, but, in any ease, it looks as though 'there »vill not l>e much left of Rumania soon.

Turkey, Britain’s ally, is non-bel-ligerent.

Britain and Germany hatter each other from the air, with the balance in our iavour. There is nothing to suggest that air war, despite- its. tremendous powers of slaughter and devastation, can decide the issue. Sea-power enables Britain to cut off from the enemy supplies from the Americas, except those that trickle in through Spain, Russia and other neutrals.

It puts at her disposal the materials of . a great part of the world. Above all she can secure, on the cash and carry principle, munitions and especially aircraft, from the United States. On the other hand. Germany and Italy can draw on the resources of most of Europe, and a large part of Asia.

To what extent there exists an effective blockade to prevent supplies from Algeria, Tunis, and Alorocco reaching -Europe is obscure. The movement by which the French Empire is rallying- to the British side is likely to extend. An overthrow of the Italians in Libya would, have far-reaching results. Petrol and oils are the real weakness of Germany, if she can manufacture enough synthetic rubber. Even in these her position is not as desperate as is often assumed. Except that the creatures have grown wings, it looks like the fight of the elephant and the whale.

U-boat activities and stray happenings like the shelling of the Turakina (which shows, incidentally, how short-sighted was the trading away of our aircraft carrier Albatross) cannot mask the fact that the enemy is ineffective at sea, even with ' the Italian fleet still safe in the harbours of Taranto and Spezia. .How, then, are we to break the deadlock? There is a pointer in the fact that London has a suburb named Alaida A r ale.

It takes its name from the . victory which a British force won at Alaida, in south Italy, in 1806.

The “boot” of Italy' may be the Achilles’ heel of the Dictators. Britain is not going to keep two million men waiting for a Nazi invasion that may never come.

Sicily, which is not over fond of Fascism, was once a British base, and may he so again.

British diplomacy has been slow in the Balkans, hut it is now quicken-' ing with premising results. , The Indian Ocean is a Britishlake, except for the shores of Italian; east Africa. ' . i

A movement, in which Australia will probably take the lead, will organise the strength of the Southern Empire, and bring it to bear on the' Ea stern Mediterranean.

To-day Australia is a principal in Pacific policy. She works for better relations between Australia. and Japan. If President Roosevelt and Air H. A. \Vallace, Democratic candidate for the Vice-Presidency, win the November elections in the United States, she. may join us against the

aggressors. If Air Wendell AVillkie. the Republican candidate wins, this is much less likely.