SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 30, 1912. THE PACIFIC AND THE FUTURE.

Hawera & Normanby Star, Volume XVIII, Issue XVIII, 30 November 1912, Page 4

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 30, 1912. THE PACIFIC AND THE FUTURE.

"When we look at things as we find them, can we ror one moment assume tnat there will be peace in Europe or in the Pacific in times to come?" This question was incidentally asked in tlie House of .Representatives on the 10th of October, by Mr James Allen, the Minister of Defence. It opens up large issues, and broaches a. subject wnich is being keenly discussed at present in the high, places of the world. Students of naval and military history, and of statecraft, and statesmen in the thick of national and international affairs, are all interested in it, and policy is moulded by regard to its possibilities. It may be said to have been, and it still is,, the main factor in the genesis and development of Australia's naval projects, and the greater attention now being given to it, is gradually bringing opinion into harmony with Australia's ideals in the matter. In a comparatively few years, perhaps m a year or two, Australia and New Zealand will probably be partners—as they must always have a common interest — in the defence of the Pacific. The question is: What must they mutually expect, and be mutually prepared for, in that connection? Only a little while ago, many men of high intelligence would have answered that China and Japan, separately or together, would have to be reckoned with as prime factors in coming events. But opinion has changed much lately with respect to this aspect of the question. During the recent session of Parliament the Minister of Defence showed that he was not inclined to think of Japan sm a bogey in the matter, and, if we remember rightly, h& did not bring China at all into the category. This attitude of Mr Allen's is in keeping with that of men who have lived in Australia and New Zealand, been observant sojourners in China and Japan, and are now intimately in touch with the thought and with the affairs of the Old World. The now prevailing opinion with regard to China as that her national needs and her national genius ensure concentration upon hers9lf for centuries to come, and that . instead of looking outward for fresh territory, she will naturally and almost of necessity try to realise her own congenial aims and ambitions, with her own people within her own borders. Those who think thus are, apart from causes and conditions outside China itself, warranted by some very strong reasons, such as the typical Chinaman's freedom from aggressiveness, his love of peace, and of country, and his devotion to industries for which his own land offers the largest scope under the most congenial conditions to him. As a matter of fact, it happens, too, just at present, that the Chinese authorities are offering special inducements for Chinamen who are abroad to return to their native land. In fact, there are many things, permanent and casual, to justify the line of reasoning we have referred to, and unless there is undue interference with China, or exasperating exploitation of her resources, from outside, it is, it seema, fair to argue from the premises and contingencies, that her people will not only be contented with their native opportunities, but will have abundance of these to engage their genius and occupy their industry for generations to come. There are thinkers who, for other reasons, correspondingly strong in themselves, consider that Japan is practically as much out of the reckoning as China. For instance, Mr Frank Fox, in his recently published "Problems of the Pacific," affirms that Japan has no special genius for war, and that it was the inferiority of her.enemy that gave her victory in her struggle with Russia. Neither has she, in his opinion, any solid basis for industrial progress,' as her chief if not only assets oonsist in a supply'of poorish coal and an Abundance of labor, which, though cheap at present, cannot b» trusted *to continue so. Further, in Mr Fox's opinion, the Japanese national character lacks the central seriousness which is indispensable to great effort and achievement; and, in referring to the proposal which was not long since deliberately made by Japanese statesmen, that Japan should change her religion for business reasons, he gravely doubts whether "a nation that takes such a curious view of life is capable of real and lasting greatness, however wonder-, ful may be its feats of imitation." As to China and Japan's commercial competition in the Pacific, or with the white races generally, Mr Fox has no disturbing apprehensions. He admits that Europe and America will, no doubt, in the future be less able to exploit Chinese markets, but he does not fear the competition of Asiatic products in the home markets of the white races or in neutral markets; tmd for this his primary and ultimate reason is that "in most domains of human industry the Asiatic worker, in spite of his very much lower initial cost, cannot compete with the European." Thus, according to Mr Fox —and lie is Hot singular in his riews—the peoples

of the South Pacific have not, in sober reality, any solid grounds for serious apprehension on account of China or Japan. Still, he recognises that there is now, and will be, a really vital "Pacific question," and he thinks that Canada and Australasia saould share with Britain in the important duty of handling it. As a matter of fact this is nob only admitted, but is already acted on in practice, and will be so more an& more as Canada, Australia and New Zealand develop their systems of defence by land and sea. Then, as Mr Fox views coming events, the diplomatic relations in the matter will be with a kindred people—a people with' whom colonists are, in many ways, sincerely in sympathy—the people of the United States of America; for— "Mr Fox thinks that the future of the Pacific is with the white races, and that at the best the Asiatic can only hope to be secure in his own continent. The opening of the Panama Canal, in his opinion, deprives Japan of her last chance of supremacy. He does not believe that there is much chance of a JapaneseChinese alliance. The real rivalry for the'dominance of the ocean lies between the British Empire and the United States, but he does not think that that rivalry need be hostile. The situation is ripe for a reasonable iinderstanding, and he urges that British diplomacy should give up its habit of treating the United States as if sho were a spoiled child, and speak with that mixture of firmness and politeness which England uses in her European relations." On the whole, the Pacific and the future, as thus viewed, are not chokeful of weird and ominous bogeys, and the view is, on the whole, a rational one, not unlikely to become general in Australia and New Zealand. It is at least practically certain that it will not be the fault of the people of these countries, if cordial relations are not evolved between the British people and the people of the United States in regard to the whole matter.